Aaron Pico (-113) vs Losene Keita (+108)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis should be a fantastic fight. Pico looked terrible in his UFC debut, then bounced back against\u00a0an older, slower Patricio Pitbull and looked great. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
My concern with Pico is that he's a front runner who looks excellent when things are going his way but doesn't always respond well when\u00a0 he faces adversity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Keita is an explosive athlete with tremendous speed and legitimate knockout\u00a0 power. I think he's going to be a little faster than Pico and have the advantage in the explosive\u00a0 striking exchanges. If Keita can put Pico under pressure and force him into uncomfortable situations, I like his chances. Keita at +108 is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDominick Reyes (+186) vs Azamat Murzakanov (-194)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMurzakanov doesn't fight very often, and at 37 years old, I have serious concerns about his\u00a0 cardio and ability to maintain his effectiveness over three rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He's extremely dangerous\u00a0early, but when he doesn't get the quick finish, he tends to slow down considerably. Reyes needs\u00a0 to survive that initial onslaught and avoid getting knocked out in the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If he does, I\u00a0expect him to have a significant cardio advantage as the fight progresses. I simply can't justify\u00a0 laying nearly -200 on a 37-year-old fighter who relies so heavily on early finishes without showing much of a backup plan. Reyes at +186<\/strong> is the underdog pick.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNikita Krylov (+426) vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (-456)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a no-brainer for me. Krylov disappeared for a couple of years, and since returning, he's\u00a0been knocked out in three of his last four fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His durability is clearly gone, and he no longer\u00a0 has the same speed or power that made him dangerous earlier in his career. Yakhyaev is an\u00a0absolute killer with tremendous punching power, and all three of his UFC victories have come in\u00a0the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don't see Krylov having the chin or defensive ability to survive the early attack.\u00a0 This looks like another quick finish, and I'd even consider a small sprinkle on under half a round.\u00a0Yakhyaev by first-round finish<\/strong> is the play.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAbus Magomedov (-108) vs Cam Rowston (+104)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI don't understand how Rowston isn't a significant favorite here. He showed an incredible ground\u00a0game in his last fight, maintaining his effectiveness throughout all three rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He's also demonstrated legitimate knockout power on the feet and has the cardio to fight hard for the entire\u00a0contest. Magomedov has shown cardio problems in the past, and much of his success has come\u00a0from identifying and exploiting obvious weaknesses in his opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The problem here is that I\u00a0don't see an area where Rowston is particularly vulnerable. He's well-rounded, dangerous\u00a0 everywhere, and should have the conditioning advantage as the fight progresses. I think Rowston\u00a0 is the better fighter across the board. Rowston at +104 is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGrant Dawson (-117) vs Nurullo Aliev (+113)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a matchup between two wrestlers, and I expect a competitive, grinding fight. Dawson is\u00a0terrible on the feet and has dealt with significant injuries throughout his career, including a serious neck injury. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
When he can get opponents to the ground and establish control, he's\u00a0 extremely effective, but good strikers have shown they can exploit his weaknesses and knock\u00a0him out. Aliev isn't much of a striker himself, but he's an excellent wrestler who should be able\u00a0 to match Dawson in the grappling exchanges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He's also younger and doesn't have nearly as much\u00a0 wear and tear on his body. I expect a close fight that goes the distance, but I like Aliev's youth\u00a0 and wrestling ability. Aliev at +113 is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nColby Thicknesse (+426) vs Asaf Chopurov (-456)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nChopurov is only 24 years old, undefeated, and looks like the complete package. He has\u00a0powerful striking, an excellent ground game, and the ability to win fights in multiple ways.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Thicknesse is coming off a couple of victories, but neither was particularly dominant. In his last fight, he absorbed some big shots and was visibly rocked. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He also has a tendency to retreat when opponents pressure him, which could be a major problem against someone as aggressive and\u00a0well-rounded as Chopurov. I think Chopurov is the real deal and has a very bright future. Chopurov is the easy pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJacob Malkoun (+150) vs Abubakar Vagaev (-156)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWe've got two wrestlers here, so this probably isn't going to be the most exciting fight on the\u00a0card. Vagaev trains with Khamzat Chimaev, and I think that gives him an advantage in the intensity and quality of his preparation for a wrestling-heavy matchup like this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Malkoun is the\u00a0better striker, which could make things interesting if he can keep the fight standing, but I don't\u00a0think he'll be able to do that consistently. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I expect Vagaev to get takedowns, establish control, and spend long stretches holding Malkoun down. Vagaev at -156 is the pick<\/strong>, likely by decision\u00a0through control time.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDaniel Santos (-132) vs Bolaji Oki (+101)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNeither guy is particularly impressive, but Oki continues to disappoint me every time he fights.\u00a0He doesn't seem to have much punching power, looks lost on the ground, and I haven't seen meaningful improvement since he entered the UFC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Santos isn't an amazing fighter either, but\u00a0 he's aggressive, throws good volume, and has the ability to mix in some grappling. That gives him more ways to win rounds, even if he's not someone I trust with my money. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a fight\u00a0between two unreliable fighters, and I don't see much value in getting involved. Santos at -132 is\u00a0the pick<\/strong>, but I'm not betting this fight.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNoah Gugnon (+144) vs Kody Steele (-150)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSteele lost his UFC debut after coming out way too excited and amped up, abandoning the\u00a0controlled approach that normally makes him effective. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In his next fight, he got back to his usual style, mixing in takedowns and wrestling, and came away with the victory. Gugnon is a violent\u00a0 fighter with good striking and a solid ground game, although the level of competition he's faced\u00a0 leaves some questions about how those skills will translate against better opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Both guys\u00a0have finishing ability, and I think there's a good chance this fight ends inside the distance. With\u00a0Gugnon's offensive upside, I like taking a shot at the underdog price. The fight under is my preferred play, with Gugnon at +144 as the side<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIasmin Lucindo (-361) vs Nicolle Caliari (+265)<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLucindo is only 24 years old and has an extremely high ceiling. She's already a talented striker,\u00a0and her ground game continues to improve. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Her only recent loss came in a close fight against a\u00a0 highly ranked, experienced veteran, so there's no reason to be concerned about her development.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Caliari is coming off a win, but it was against a terrible opponent, and she has consistently\u00a0struggled whenever the competition gets tougher. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She doesn't have the punching power or\u00a0ground game necessary to keep Lucindo from moving forward and imposing her offense. I\u00a0expect Lucindo to control the action and eventually overwhelm her. Lucindo is the pick<\/strong>, most\u00a0likely by finish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/WagerTalk-NFL-Pickem-20K-Promotion-1024x576.png\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n