{"id":40481,"date":"2026-10-07T11:19:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T15:19:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=40481"},"modified":"2026-10-07T11:19:11","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T15:19:11","slug":"ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-picks-predictions-and-odds-october-10-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/mma\/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-picks-predictions-and-odds-october-10-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan Picks, Predictions and Odds October 10, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions<\/strong> come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang<\/a><\/span> for October 10, 2026 with the main event headlined by Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan<\/strong> in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the Meta APEX,\u00a0Las Vegas,\u00a0NV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>: UFC Fight Night Main Event<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Saturday, October 10<\/th>UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)<\/th><\/tr>
Moneyline:<\/td>Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan<\/td><\/tr>
Rounds:<\/td>3.5 (Over -120 \/ Under -102)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Time:<\/td>Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET \/ 5:00pm PT<\/td><\/tr>
Arena:<\/td>Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV<\/td><\/tr>
TV:<\/td>Paramount+<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Herbert (+155) vs Camilo (-185) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I love Camilo here. Herbert is coming off a knockout win, but he was dropped and nearly finished early in that fight. If that sequence goes differently, Herbert would be coming in with\u00a0 two straight losses and three losses in his last four. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Camilo is younger, faster, and more athletic,\u00a0and he showed his power with a knockout win last time out. I think there\u2019s a clear athletic and\u00a0 speed advantage here. Camilo is the easy pick.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Souza (+180) vs Godinez (-220) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loopy should be more active on the feet. Her striking isn\u2019t great, but Souza\u2019s isn\u2019t much better,\u00a0and Souza can get wild with her striking. Souza can clinch and wrestle, but that\u2019s Loopy\u2019s\u00a0 background, so I don\u2019t see her dominating Godinez in those areas either. Loopy has also consistently faced the better competition. Godinez is a pretty easy pick for me.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meerschaert (+205) vs Walker (-250) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have to keep fading Meerschaert. This will be his 60th professional fight, he\u2019s lost five straight, and retirement has to be getting close. He\u2019s never been a particularly good striker, but now the wrestling and grappling aren\u2019t getting the job done either, and his speed is basically nonexistent.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Walker isn\u2019t great and has lost two straight himself, but at this stage he\u2019s clearly the better\u00a0 athlete. Walker should outwork Meerschaert everywhere and is the pick.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Fili (-150) vs Kamaka III (+125) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m not a Kamaka guy. His striking isn\u2019t particularly exciting, and even though he\u2019s only 31, he\u00a0 looks like he\u2019s starting to slow down. He was knocked out in his last fight as well, so there are\u00a0questions about whether the durability is starting to disappear. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fili is no spring chicken himself at\u00a036 and was also finished last time out. The difference is I think Fili will be more active on the\u00a0 feet and can potentially mix in some wrestling. Fili is the pick.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wellmaker (-215) vs Tanzilovi (+185) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wellmaker looked like a big-time prospect with an incredibly high ceiling, but he\u2019s now lost two\u00a0 straight and hasn\u2019t shown improvement as the competition has gotten tougher. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last fight he was\u00a0 outwrestled and looked tentative with his striking. Tanzilovi wants this fight on the ground,\u00a0which is where he\u2019s at his best, and Wellmaker looked lost in that area last time. I can\u2019t keep backing Wellmaker when he isn\u2019t showing signs of improvement. Tanzilovi at +185 is the pick. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prado (+105) vs Bonfim (-125)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prado keeps running into the same problem\u2014his arms are too short. He struggles to generate\u00a0 power from range and has to work his way inside, where he\u2019s been losing striking exchanges.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bonfim has his own major issues, though. He\u2019s been finished in three straight, fights\u00a0 aggressively, tires himself out, and makes too many mistakes. That\u2019s exactly the type of fighter I\u00a0 don\u2019t want to bet. Prado should still have energy and pressure in the second and third rounds\u00a0when Bonfim starts fading. Prado at +105 is the pick.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ribeiro (+250) vs Franco (-320) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ribeiro isn\u2019t great, but his striking is better than Franco\u2019s, which makes this line look too wide.\u00a0Franco will want to wrestle and will probably have some success getting the fight to the ground.\u00a0On the feet, though, he\u2019s going to get hit, and Ribeiro should also be able to land leg kicks.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Franco probably finds enough takedowns and control to grind out the win, but I\u2019m not laying -320 in this matchup. At these odds, Ribeiro +250 or nothing.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frye Jr. (+205) vs Harris (-240) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frye might be pound-for-pound one of the worst fighters on the roster. He\u2019s extremely slow, gets hit way too much, loses control time in the clinch, and even when he has opponents pinned\u00a0 against the fence, he doesn\u2019t do enough with the position. I just don\u2019t see much upside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Harris is a legitimate fighter with knockout power, and he\u2019s already shown he can go the distance, so\u00a0cardio isn\u2019t a concern. His striking should consistently find the target here. Harris is the pick.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pereira (-132) vs Zheleznyakova (+108) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pereira has accurate, powerful striking, but she simply doesn\u2019t throw enough volume. She also\u00a0spends too much time getting pushed against the fence and losing control minutes. The question is whether Zheleznyakova has the tools to exploit those weaknesses, and I\u2019m not convinced she\u00a0 does. She has some similar issues of her own without having Pereira\u2019s power. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pereira should land the bigger strikes, create the more memorable moments, and has the possibility of landing a knockout shot. Pereira is the pick.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shahbazyan (-140) vs Price (+125) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shahbazyan is terrible. He\u2019s slow, has poor striking defense, doesn\u2019t absorb shots well, but he\u00a0does have submission ability on the ground. He was finished quickly in his UFC debut and\u00a0 looked scared once he started getting hit, eventually turtling up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Niko Price supposedly retired\u00a0after his last fight, but they forgot to interview him afterward, so he\u2019s coming back for one more.\u00a0 He\u2019s old, slow, and struggles to generate much offense at this stage. I don\u2019t want to trust either\u00a0fighter with my money on the side. The under is the play\u2014one of these guys is going to get\u00a0 hurt or taken down and quit.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kareckaite (+125) vs Gatto (-150)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a pretty close matchup. Both are primarily strikers, although Gatto offers a little more on\u00a0 the ground without being dominant there. Kareckaite has the kickboxing background, but she\u00a0doesn\u2019t throw enough volume to confidently bank rounds, which is why her last three fights have been so close. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gatto has been really underwhelming recently, though. She looks tentative and has\u00a0 been losing striking exchanges. I expect another close fight, so at these prices, I\u2019d rather take the plus money. Kareckaite at +125 is the pick.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Main Event: <\/strong>Brendan Allen (-150) vs Christian Leroy Duncan (+118)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Duncan should be the better striker, while Allen has the advantage on the ground. I\u2019m just not\u00a0 impressed with Allen at this point. He won his last fight, but he took damage from Edmen\u00a0Shahbazyan on the feet, and while he did damage Edmen himself, it was a low-volume\u00a0performance that didn\u2019t impress me. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Duncan isn\u2019t going to stand there and let Allen tee off on\u00a0 him. The concern is Allen\u2019s takedowns, but he didn\u2019t use them much last fight, and over five\u00a0 rounds, constantly wrestling could wear him out. I\u2019ll side with the cleaner striker. Duncan at\u00a0+118 is the pick.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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