{"id":40221,"date":"2026-09-24T13:42:59","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T17:42:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=40221"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:43:01","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T17:43:01","slug":"ufc-fight-night-rosas-jr-vs-barcelos-picks-predictions-and-odds-september-26-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/mma\/ufc-fight-night-rosas-jr-vs-barcelos-picks-predictions-and-odds-september-26-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos Picks, Predictions and Odds September 26, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions<\/strong> come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang<\/a><\/span> for September 26, 2026 with the main event headlined by Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos<\/strong> in a bantamweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the Meta APEX,\u00a0Las Vegas,\u00a0NV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>: UFC Fight Night Main Event<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Saturday, September 26<\/th>UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)<\/th><\/tr>
Moneyline:<\/td>Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos<\/td><\/tr>
Rounds:<\/td>N\/A<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Time:<\/td>Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET \/ 5:00pm PT<\/td><\/tr>
Arena:<\/td>Meta APEX,\u00a0Las Vegas,\u00a0NV<\/td><\/tr>
TV:<\/td>Paramount+<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Rodolfo Vieira (-130) vs Robert Bryczek (+114) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vieira is a grappler who needs this fight on the ground to win. His striking is terrible, and his\u00a0cardio has become a major problem at this point in his career. After the first round, he struggles to get anything going, doesn\u2019t have the energy for aggressive takedowns, and becomes an easy target on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bryczek doesn\u2019t have great takedown defense, so surviving the early portion\u00a0will be important, but he\u2019s the better striker and should have the cardio advantage. I\u2019ll take\u00a0 Bryczek at plus money.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rinya Nakamura (-330) vs Brady Hiestand (+260) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nakamura lost two fights ago when he decided to strike instead of relying on his wrestling,\u00a0which is clearly his biggest strength. That strategy cost him, but he bounced back in his next\u00a0fight by landing a great body kick and punch for an early knockout. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hiestand hasn\u2019t fought in\u00a0 more than two years, and I\u2019m not sure what to expect from him. His wins have come against bad\u00a0 competition, his striking is just okay, and I don\u2019t see a high ceiling with his ground game.\u00a0Nakamura has elite wrestling to fall back on whenever he needs it. Nakamura is the pick.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mehemmedeli Osmanli (-290) vs Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu (+235) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I liked Osmanli from the beginning on The Ultimate Fighter, and I\u2019m going to keep riding with\u00a0him. He\u2019s excellent on the ground and completely fearless. He\u2019s a bit of a lunatic outside the\u00a0cage, but that same mentality is part of what gives him such a high ceiling when he fights.\u00a0Osmanli is the pick.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Josiah Harrell (-125) vs Elves Brener (+112) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m not a fan of Harrell. He has one win against someone I would consider a good opponent, was\u00a0badly knocked out in his UFC debut, and has spent time fighting in the Ohio Combat League. He\u00a0just looks sloppy by UFC standards, and I don\u2019t think his striking is good enough to consistently\u00a0force Brener backward. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brener has lost three straight, but those losses came against really good competition, and this is a major step down in class. His volume should be better, his cardio\u00a0 should be better, and he should be able to capitalize on Harrell\u2019s mistakes. Brener is the pick at +112.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rodolfo Bellato (-175) vs Christian Edwards (+145) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Edwards was less than impressive in his UFC debut. He got hit quite a bit and couldn\u2019t generate\u00a0much offense with either his striking or wrestling. I\u2019m still not sure exactly what he does\u00a0particularly well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bellato has legitimate power early, but he also tires quickly, which makes it\u00a0difficult to lay -175. If Bellato doesn\u2019t get the early finish, Edwards could take over in the second\u00a0 and third rounds. I\u2019m not a fan of either guy, but at these odds, Edwards at +145 is the only way I\u2019d play it.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Montel Jackson (-205) vs Ricky Simon (+170) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simon has really slowed down over the last few years, losing five of his last eight UFC fights and\u00a0getting a draw in a fight he probably should have lost. Jackson will have a significant reach\u00a0 advantage and can score with his jab, but he can also get stuck in the mud and stop throwing.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Barcelos was able to take Jackson down several times, so Simon has a potential path with his\u00a0wrestling if he chooses to use it, although he hasn\u2019t relied on it much lately. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t trust either\u00a0guy, but Simon could avoid the long-range striking, work inside, mix in takedowns, and make\u00a0 this an ugly fight. Simon is the underdog pick at +170.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

John Castaneda (-300) vs Alatengheili (+240) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These odds are out of whack in my opinion. Both guys fight similarly\u2014they\u2019re primarily\u00a0strikers, neither has huge knockout power, neither has a dynamic ground game, and neither\u00a0 consistently creates huge moments that jump out to the judges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Castaneda is coming off a draw\u00a0 where he lost a point for low blows, but even before that he was struggling against a fighter who\u00a0 was only 5-foot-3 despite having a three-inch height advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think Alateng can keep these rounds close enough to make the judges think hard about who won them. At these prices,\u00a0 Alatengheili at +240 is the only way I\u2019d play it.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ailin Perez (-127) vs Norma Dumont (+110) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perez fights essentially the same way every time. She gets early takedowns, controls position,\u00a0banks rounds, and then starts getting tired in the third. By that point, she\u2019s usually already done\u00a0 enough to earn the decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now she\u2019s stepping up in competition, and that formula is going to\u00a0 become tougher to execute. Dumont is strong and is the better striker, although she can be low\u00a0volume on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If she can stuff Perez\u2019s takedowns\u2014or even make Perez work extremely\u00a0 hard to get them early\u2014she can drain her gas tank and potentially take over in rounds two and\u00a0three. I like the plus-money side with Dumont at +110.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mickey Gall (-150) vs Sedriques Dumas (+125) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t think this fight goes the distance. Gall has major durability concerns, and if Dumas lands clean, he can knock him out. On the other hand, if Gall gets the fight to the ground, he has a clear\u00a0path to submitting Dumas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dumas isn\u2019t trustworthy, and I have major questions about how\u00a0 seriously he takes his career. It\u2019s scary laying money with Gall, but I think he shoots for the\u00a0takedown, gets the fight to the ground, and finds the submission. Gall by submission is the pick.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yazmin Jauregui (-900) vs Vanessa Demopoulos (+600) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These odds are crazy. Demopoulos has lost three straight, doesn\u2019t offer much with her striking and her ground game isn\u2019t particularly strong either. Cardio has traditionally been one of her\u00a0 better attributes, but even that has started to decline. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her striking defense is getting worse, and\u00a0she appears to be trending in the wrong direction. Jauregui has lost two of her last three, with\u00a0 both losses coming by first-round finish, so she\u2019s absolutely capable of making mistakes early. If\u00a0she settles into the fight, though, she should take over. Jauregui is the pick, but there\u2019s no way\u00a0 I\u2019m laying -900.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Raul Rosas Jr. (-175) vs Raoni Barcelos<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> (+158)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Rosas is primarily a grappler. He\u2019s young and very strong, although I still have some questions about how seriously he and his camp approach everything. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Barcelos is 39 years old, but he still\u00a0 has gas left in the tank and has won five straight. He\u2019s probably the better striker, and he can\u00a0 hold his own in the wrestling department.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The biggest question is whether he\u2019s strong enough to\u00a0 fight off Rosas\u2019 takedowns. If he can, he\u2019s very live to pull the upset. I\u2019ll take the veteran with\u00a0 more weapons and more paths to victory. Barcelos is the underdog pick at +158.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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