Yan Xiaonan (-175) vs. Denise Gomes (+140) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nYan Xiaonan's last two losses have come when opponents were able to outwrestle her, and she's only 3-4 over her last seven fights. She also hasn't fought since last April and is now 37 years old. I think she's a little overrated at this stage of her career. Her striking is good, but I don't think it's so elite that opponents can't compete with her on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is certainly a major step up in competition for Denise Gomes, but she's only 28 years old and looked excellent in her last fight when she physically manhandled Pennington, who is a tough opponent. Gomes has the tools to exploit Yan's biggest weakness, and I think her striking is good enough to remain competitive when the fight stays standing. At plus money, Gomes is the underdog pick. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKai Asakura (-400) vs. Aoriqileng (+300) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBoth of these fighters have struggled with wrestling and the ground game, particularly Asakura, so I don't expect either man to be eager to turn this into a grappling match. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If this becomes the striking fight I'm expecting, Asakura has significant advantages. He's much faster and carries more power, which should allow him to consistently beat Aoriqileng to the punch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is one of the more straightforward fights on the card. Asakura is the pick, and I think he probably gets the knockout. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSumudaerji (-210) vs. Alex Perez (+181) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a rematch from May, and we already got a pretty good look at how these two match up. Sumudaerji's reach and jab were causing Perez problems, while Perez's attempt to get the fight to the ground wasn't remotely close to being successful. Sumudaerji then dropped Perez in the second round before the fight eventually ended as a no contest due to a low blow. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Perez obviously needs to make adjustments in the rematch, but I'm not sure what those <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
adjustments can realistically be. He's still going to be the shorter fighter with the reach disadvantage, and I don't trust his wrestling enough to believe he can completely change the matchup. I expect the rematch to look similar to the first fight. Sumudaerji is the pick.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCe Liu (-195) vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. (+155) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCe Liu comes from a kickboxing background and is a big, powerful striker. The concern is his ground game. In his first MMA fight, he was taken down easily and beaten up on the ground. He looked a little better in his second fight, but grappling remains a significant weakness. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Levi Rodrigues Jr. hasn't impressed me either. He tested positive for steroids after winning on Contender Series and was then finished in his UFC debut. However, he does have power, and against an opponent with Liu's grappling deficiencies, one successful takedown could completely change the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don't trust either fighter enough to confidently pick a side. The best bet is for the fight not to go the distance, with a small sprinkle on Rodrigues at +155 also worth considering. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBilal Hasan (-566) vs. Nilson Rojas (+500) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBilal Hasan is coming off a big Contender Series win and has exactly the type of style the UFC loves. He's a dynamic striker with excellent speed and big power, and this feels like a matchup designed to continue building him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Nilson Rojas looks like a lesser version of Hasan. He's also quick and has several early knockout victories, but those wins have come against questionable competition. With both fighters carrying power, this could simply come down to who lands the first clean bomb. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hasan should win, but -566 is far too expensive for a fight that could turn into an early firefight. If anything, a tiny sprinkle on Rojas at +500 is more appealing than laying the massive price on Hasan. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAndre Lima (-240) vs. Namsrai Batbayar (+205) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNamsrai Batbayar has been beating opponents on Road to UFC, but now he has to deal with an established UFC-level fighter. Batbayar has good power and decent speed, but his striking is basic. He doesn't do much to set up his power, doesn't throw many combinations and can become predictable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Andre Lima is a solid fighter, although I'm not convinced he has a massive ceiling in the UFC. He can strike, has good cardio and can threaten submissions, but he occasionally becomes too comfortable and allows his volume to drop. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lima simply has more layers to his game. His striking is more developed, his leg kicks give him another weapon, and he should also have the better ground game. Lima is the pick to outclass Batbayar. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRei Tsuruya (-566) vs. Kevin Borjas (+460) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis should be pretty straightforward. Rei Tsuruya is an elite wrestler, and I don't see Kevin Borjas having much success keeping this fight standing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Borjas is long and rangy and would prefer to use those physical advantages on the feet, but I don't think he'll have that opportunity for very long. Tsuruya should be able to close the distance, get his takedowns and dominate once the fight reaches the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tsuruya's only professional loss came against the elite Josh Van. Tsuruya should dominate this matchup and potentially find a finish. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nXiao Long (-175) vs. Francesco Nuzzi (+152) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nXiao Long hasn't been particularly impressive in the UFC. His only UFC victory came against another Asian fighter, and his offense just isn't very complex. This feels like the UFC bringing in a non-UFC opponent to give Long an opportunity to get another victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The problem is that Francesco Nuzzi isn't someone I want to bet either. He's had a couple of PFL fights and has several early knockouts, but those finishes have largely come against bad competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Long should be the better fighter, but this is ultimately a matchup between two guys I don't trust. Long is the pick, but this isn't a fight I'm betting. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSean Woodson (-150) vs. Jack Jenkins (+128) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSean Woodson's length is going to be the difference in this matchup. Jack Jenkins has excellent leg kicks, but Woodson's long jab should allow him to maintain enough distance to make those kicks difficult to land consistently. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Jenkins can't establish the leg kicks, it becomes much harder for him to set up his punches or potential takedowns. Woodson is coming off a loss to Dan Ige, but I thought the stoppage was extremely early, and Woodson had been looking good before the fight was stopped. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Woodson should be able to control range with his jab and front kicks, continually damaging Jenkins while keeping him on the outside. Woodson is an easy pick for me at -150. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLawrence Lui (-291) vs. Hector Santiago (+260) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI don't have a strong opinion on this matchup, especially at these prices. This fight isn't bettable for me, so it's an easy pass.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJulia Polastri (-230) vs. Jingnan Xiong (+195) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJingnan Xiong is 38 years old, and I'm not particularly impressed by the 19-3 record. Much of that record was built against non-UFC-level competition, and when she finally faced an established UFC fighter in Angela Hill, she lost. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Xiong's striking looks slow, and I don't see a wrestling game that gives her another path to victory. Julia Polastri isn't an elite fighter herself, and she can become too low volume and give away rounds because she isn't active enough, but she's much more fluid and has the crisper striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Polastri should be able to win the cleaner exchanges and bank enough rounds. Polastri by decision is the pick. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDing Meng (-121) vs. Cameron Nelson (+107) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDing Meng is only 31 years old, but he already has 45 professional fights, so there's a lot of mileage on his body. He likes to work with kicks, while his boxing isn't particularly impressive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cameron Nelson has significantly less experience, but he's younger and has shown multiple ways to finish fights with both knockouts and submissions. From a pure matchup perspective, this looks extremely close. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The concern with backing Nelson is whether he'll do enough to clearly take rounds, especially in this setting. I expect a competitive fight that reaches the scorecards, with Ding doing just enough to get the nod. Ding Meng is the pick in a close decision.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Umar Nurmagomedov (-526) vs. Song Yadong (+400)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\nThe odds look correct here. Umar Nurmagomedov is incredibly technical everywhere, and his only professional loss came against Merab Dvalishvili, who puts an almost impossible pace on his opponents. Song Yadong is an elite striker and is solid on the ground, but Umar is simply better at consistently winning rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I expect Umar to use his striking to set up his takedowns rather than forcing the wrestling. Once he gets Song down, his control and ground game should allow him to bank rounds. Both fighters are extremely durable, so I'm not expecting a finish. Umar by decision is the pick.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39962"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39962\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39965,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39962\/revisions\/39965"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}