Serghei Spivac (+134) vs. Vitor Petrino (-168) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSerghei Spivac is coming off a bizarre win over Ante Delija where the two heavyweights ended\u00a0up trading strikes, and surprisingly, Spivac got the better of those exchanges. Striking isn\u2019t\u00a0 normally where Spivac wants to live. His best work comes through his wrestling, takedowns and\u00a0 ability to establish dominant top position.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The question is whether he can consistently get that game going against Vitor Petrino. Petrino\u2019s\u00a0move up in weight has been good for him. He\u2019s extremely physical, carries legitimate power and\u00a0 has wrestling of his own. His cardio is still something I worry about, and he isn\u2019t necessarily a\u00a0high-volume striker, but the shots he does land tend to have an impact.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Petrino is simply going to be too physical and powerful in this matchup. Spivac may have some opportunities to wrestle, but I don\u2019t think he\u2019ll be able to consistently impose his normal game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: Vitor Petrino <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nReinier de Ridder (-361) vs. Roman Dolidze (+295) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI think Roman Dolidze is simply done competing with the top fighters in this division. The\u00a0output has disappeared, the speed isn\u2019t there anymore and he doesn\u2019t carry the same threat\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
offensively. Two fights ago against Anthony Hernandez, Dolidze was dominated so badly that it\u00a0felt like the performance that marked the end of his run as a competitive top-tier fighter.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Reinier de Ridder isn\u2019t an elite striker himself, but he doesn\u2019t need to be here. He can clinch,\u00a0wrestle and make Dolidze work in areas where Dolidze has recently struggled. De Ridder should\u00a0 be able to dictate where this fight takes place and control long portions of it.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
At this stage, I think almost any legitimate top-ranked middleweight should be favored heavily\u00a0against Dolidze. The price on de Ridder is steep, but he\u2019s clearly the pick.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: Reinier de Ridder <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMarQuel Mederos (+239) vs. Mason Jones (-291) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI think this fight is considerably closer than the betting line suggests. These two have some similarities stylistically. Both are solid strikers with good cardio, and neither fighter necessarily\u00a0 needs to build his game around wrestling or grappling.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The difference that interests me is defense. Mason Jones is willing to take a lot of damage, while\u00a0 Mederos does a pretty good job defensively. If this becomes the competitive striking match I\u00a0expect, we could see several close rounds where avoiding damage is just as important as landing\u00a0 it.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
At nearly +240, I don\u2019t think Mederos needs to dominate this matchup to have value. If he can use his defense, stay composed and steal a couple of close rounds, an upset is very realistic. The odds are what push me toward the underdog. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: MarQuel Mederos <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCarli Judice (-459) vs. Jeisla Chaves (+397) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCarli Judice is my most confident pick on the card. She has developed into an excellent volume\u00a0striker, and she continues to improve every time we see her. She overwhelms opponents with\u00a0 activity and forces them to fight at a pace they simply can\u2019t maintain.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jeisla Chaves is game and will fight hard, but I don\u2019t see an area where she can consistently take\u00a0 advantage of Judice. She doesn\u2019t have the striking skill to keep up with Judice on the feet, and\u00a0Judice has shown good enough takedown defense that I don\u2019t expect Chaves to find an easy\u00a0alternative route to victory.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Judice should dictate the pace, pile up volume and gradually separate herself as the fight progresses. The moneyline is obviously expensive, but from a straight prediction standpoint, she\u2019s the easiest pick on the card for me. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: Carli Judice<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAnthony Wint (-1240) vs. Terrance Chatman (+489) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis fight feels like a showcase matchup for Anthony Wint. He\u2019s coming off a quick knockout\u00a0victory on Contender Series, and now he gets an opponent who appears to have been brought in\u00a0 specifically to give Wint another opportunity for a highlight-reel finish.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
There really isn\u2019t much to break down here. Wint should have massive advantages offensively,\u00a0and I don\u2019t expect Chatman to survive the opening round if Wint immediately pushes the action.\u00a0The moneyline is completely unplayable at this price, so I\u2019d rather attack the method and timing\u00a0 of the victory.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: Anthony Wint by first-round KO <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJamall Emmers (+312) vs. Lerryan Douglas (-345) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLerryan Douglas has massive power, and he doesn\u2019t need many opportunities to end a fight. If he lands one clean shot, he can shut the lights off immediately. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jamall Emmers is now 37 years old, and I\u2019m not convinced he has the speed at this stage of his\u00a0career to stay out of danger for an entire fight. He does have length and reach that could\u00a0 theoretically help him manage distance, but eventually Douglas is going to close that distance\u00a0 and force exchanges.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Once that happens, I think Douglas lands the shot he needs. Rather than laying a big moneyline price, I\u2019d be more interested in backing Douglas to get the finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: Lerryan Douglas by KO <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nShamil Gaziev (-125) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (+120) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nShamil Gaziev has now been knocked out in two straight fights, which obviously raises some\u00a0major durability concerns. He does bring pressure, solid striking, size and wrestling, but he\u2019s\u00a0 slow and his cardio can become a major problem as fights progress.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kennedy Nzechukwu has knocked out his last two opponents, although I\u2019m not ready to\u00a0suddenly label him a devastating knockout artist because of the quality and condition of those opponents. What I do trust more in this matchup is his ability to maintain himself deeper into the\u00a0 fight.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gaziev can absolutely have success early, but the longer this goes, the more I favor Kennedy.\u00a0Once Gaziev starts slowing down, Nzechukwu should have opportunities to take over the\u00a0 exchanges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNasrat Haqparast (-110) vs. Chris Padilla (+101) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nChris Padilla has impressed me since joining the UFC. He\u2019s durable, has very good fight IQ and consistently seems to recognize what an opponent does poorly and then attack that weakness. He\u00a0 walks forward, forces action, throws good volume and has a solid defensive guard.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Nasrat Haqparast is also primarily a striker and brings respectable volume of his own. The\u00a0concern is that he was knocked out badly last October and hasn\u2019t fought since. Stylistically,\u00a0 though, these guys are similar enough that I have a difficult time finding a meaningful advantage\u00a0 on either side.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t have a strong moneyline pick here. What I do like is both fighters being comfortable\u00a0striking for long stretches without necessarily having to sell out for a finish.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: Fight Goes the Distance <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nM\u00e1rcio Barbosa (-1090) vs. Ryan Kuse (+312) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nM\u00e1rcio Barbosa is a killer with ridiculous power, and this looks like another showcase opportunity for him. Ryan Kuse is a journeyman making his UFC debut, and the matchmaking\u00a0 appears designed to give Barbosa another chance to produce a violent highlight.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t see Kuse surviving the early exchanges. Barbosa should immediately put him under\u00a0pressure, land something significant and end the fight before Kuse has an opportunity to settle in.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
There\u2019s obviously no reason to touch a -1090 moneyline. The value, if there is any, comes from attacking the finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: M\u00e1rcio Barbosa by first-round KO <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGauge Young (-155) vs. Stanley Dorsainvil (+130) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nStanley Dorsainvil is talented, but he only has five professional fights on his record. He has a\u00a0strong clinch game and dangerous submissions, but this is another significant test of his\u00a0 development.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gauge Young brings more experience and should have the advantages at distance. He\u2019s faster, is\u00a0the better pure striker and also has enough wrestling strength that Dorsainvil shouldn\u2019t simply be\u00a0 able to dictate the grappling exchanges.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dorsainvil has some legitimate upside, but I think Young is the more complete and experienced fighter right now. His speed and striking should be the difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: Gauge Young <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJackson McVey (-183) vs. Wes Schultz (+150) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJackson McVey is really dangerous for about five minutes. He can land damaging strikes, get takedowns and overwhelm opponents early, but his cardio falls off dramatically after the opening\u00a0 round.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wes Schultz is undersized and doesn\u2019t have much power, but he can become dangerous if he\u00a0gets a takedown and establishes top position. From there, he has ground-and-pound and\u00a0 submission opportunities. The problem is that his durability is questionable, and that\u2019s a major\u00a0 concern against someone as dangerous as McVey early.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Schultz survives the opening round, this fight becomes much more interesting. I don\u2019t think he\u00a0gets that opportunity. McVey should find him early and get the finish before his cardio becomes\u00a0 an issue.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: Jackson McVey by early KO <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nShanelle Dyer (-590) vs. Elise Reed (+489) <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nShanelle Dyer is the clear pick, but -590 is a horrible price and not something I\u2019m interested in\u00a0betting. Dyer should be the better striker, while Elise Reed has shown a fairly low ceiling at the\u00a0 UFC level.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Reed can look competent on the feet against weaker competition, but she has major holes in her ground game and hasn\u2019t shown enough consistency anywhere to make me trust her against better\u00a0 opponents. Dyer isn\u2019t much of a grappler herself, but she shouldn\u2019t need to wrestle in this\u00a0 matchup.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dyer should be able to keep the fight standing and simply beat Reed with her striking. A knockout is also very possible if Reed begins absorbing too much damage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: Shanelle Dyer<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Anthony Hernandez (-191) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+145)<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a very tough fight to predict because we don\u2019t know exactly what version of Anthony\u00a0Hernandez is going to show up. Hernandez is at his best when he suffocates opponents with\u00a0relentless wrestling, pressure and cardio, slowly wearing them down as the fight progresses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The concern is what happened in his last fight against Sean Strickland, when he abandoned that\u00a0 strategy and tried to turn it into a striking match. He was thoroughly outclassed.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gregory Rodrigues is exactly the type of opponent Hernandez should not want to stand and trade\u00a0with. Rodrigues has legitimate knockout power and enough wrestling ability to make things interesting, but his biggest weakness has always been his cardio. His gas tank can fall off a cliff\u00a0 after a couple of hard rounds, and that becomes an even bigger concern in a five-round fight.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The path for Hernandez is pretty straightforward: pressure Rodrigues, wrestle, make him work\u00a0 and survive the early danger. If Hernandez gets through the first couple of rounds without taking\u00a0major damage, he should be able to overwhelm an exhausted Rodrigues later. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The problem is\u00a0 that I hated seeing Hernandez abandon his wrestling against Strickland, and I\u2019m worried he tries\u00a0 to prove something on the feet again. If he does, Rodrigues can absolutely knock him out. I\u2019ll\u00a0 take a shot on Rodrigues, but there\u2019s no reason to bet his moneyline. If Rodrigues wins this fight,\u00a0 I believe it comes by finish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pick: Gregory Rodrigues by finish<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39922","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39922"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39922\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39923,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39922\/revisions\/39923"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}