{"id":39588,"date":"2026-07-22T08:11:59","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T12:11:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=39588"},"modified":"2026-07-22T08:12:01","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T12:12:01","slug":"2026-florida-state-football-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football\/2026-florida-state-football-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 Florida State Football Preview | FSU Predictions and Odds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Since getting left out of the 2023 playoff under controversial circumstances, the Florida State football program has gone 7-18. Head coach Mike Norvell was given a vote of confidence by the Seminoles’ administration, but confidence levels don’t appear to be soaring in Tallahassee ahead of the 2026 season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2026 Florida State Football Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

ACC Betting Odds<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Team<\/th>2025 Record<\/th>2026 Win Total<\/th>ACC Odds<\/th>Nat’l Champ Odds<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Boston College<\/td>2-10 (1-7)<\/td>3.5 (o EV \/ u -120)<\/td>+50000<\/td>+100000<\/td><\/tr>
Cal<\/td>7-6 (4-4)<\/td>6.5 (o EV \/ u -120)<\/td>+3500<\/td>+60000<\/td><\/tr>
Clemson<\/td>7-6 (4-4)<\/td>7.5 (o -130 \/ u +110)<\/td>+1400<\/td>+11000<\/td><\/tr>
Duke<\/td>9-5 (7-2)<\/td>5.5 (o -130 \/ u +110)<\/td>+6000<\/td>+40000<\/td><\/tr>
Florida State<\/td>5-7 (2-6)<\/td>6.5 (o +140 \/ u -170)<\/td>+3500<\/td>+18000<\/td><\/tr>
Georgia Tech<\/td>9-4 (6-2)<\/td>6.5 (o +105 \/ u -125)<\/td>+3500<\/td>+40000<\/td><\/tr>
Louisville<\/td>9-4 (4-4)<\/td>8.5 (o +135 \/ u -160)<\/td>+800<\/td>+15000<\/td><\/tr>
Miami (Fla)<\/td>13-3 (6-2)<\/td>10.5 (-110 each way)<\/td>-136<\/td>+1100<\/td><\/tr>
NC State<\/td>8-5 (4-4)<\/td>7.5 (o +120 \/ u -140)<\/td>+2200<\/td>+50000<\/td><\/tr>
North Carolina<\/td>4-8 (2-6)<\/td>4.5 (o -130 \/ u +110)<\/td>+15000<\/td>+40000<\/td><\/tr>
Pitt<\/td>8-5 (6-2)<\/td>7.5 (o -145 \/ u +125)<\/td>+1700<\/td>+25000<\/td><\/tr>
SMU<\/td>9-4 (6-2)<\/td>8.5 (o -125 \/ u +105)<\/td>+700<\/td>+10000<\/td><\/tr>
Stanford<\/td>4-8 (3-5)<\/td>3.5 (-110 each way)<\/td>+40000<\/td>+100000<\/td><\/tr>
Syracuse<\/td>3-9 (1-7)<\/td>4.5 (o +105 \/ u -125)<\/td>+18000<\/td>+80000<\/td><\/tr>
Virginia<\/td>11-3 (7-2)<\/td>7.5 (o -150 \/ u +125)<\/td>+1600<\/td>+20000<\/td><\/tr>
Virginia Tech<\/td>3-9 (2-6)<\/td>6.5 (o -150 \/ u +125)<\/td>+2800<\/td>+18000<\/td><\/tr>
Wake Forest<\/td>9-4 (4-4)<\/td>5.5 (o -125 \/ u +115)<\/td>+7400<\/td>+50000<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of July 21. The Seminoles went 5-7 straight-up and against the spread last season. Florida State opened the year with an outright upset win over Alabama then beat Kent State by 56 before losing four-straight games to open conference play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2026 Florida State Football Roster<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Projected Returning Starters<\/strong>: 6 (Two on offense and four on defense)
Projected Starting QB<\/strong>: Ashton Daniels (Transfer from Auburn)
Returning Production<\/strong>: 57-percent (57-percent on offense and 57-percent on defense)
Incoming Talent Class<\/strong>: No. 17 Nationally \/ No. 2 in ACC
Coaching Changes<\/strong>: New offensive coordinator Tim Harris Jr. has been promoted to lead the offense. Harris Jr. will be Florida State’s third offensive coordinator in the last three years. He replaces Gus Malzahn, who retired after spending one season in Tallahassee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Returning starters are courtesy of CBS Sports. Returning production is courtesy of Bill Connelly’s conference preview series<\/a> at ESPN. Incoming talent rankings are courtesy of 247 Sports’ Composite Ratings<\/a>, which capture the talent rankings of both incoming freshman and incoming transfers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"ACC<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2025 Florida State Football Stats<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Strength of Schedule<\/strong>: No. 33 (courtesy of Jeff Sagarin)
Turnover Differential<\/strong>: -5
Plays per Game<\/strong>: 72.4 (No. 33)
Seconds per Play<\/strong>: 23.6 (No. 18)
Average Time of Possession<\/strong>: 28:46 (No. 105)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Florida State Football Stats on Offense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yards per Game<\/strong>: 472.1 (No. 6)
Points per Game<\/strong>: 33.0 (No. 22)
Yards per Play<\/strong>: 6.70 (No. 13)
Offensive Success Rate<\/strong>: 44.9-percent (No. 24)
Explosive Plays (20+ Yards)<\/strong>: 68 (No. 28)
Net EPA per Play<\/strong>: +0.07 (No. 34)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Florida State Football Stats on Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yards per Game Allowed<\/strong>: 328.8 (No. 28)
Points per Game Allowed<\/strong>: 22.0 (No. 43)
Yards per Play Allowed<\/strong>: 5.01 (No. 31)
Defensive Success Rate<\/strong>: 42.5-percent (No. 68)
Explosive Plays Allowed (20+ Yards)<\/strong>: 44 (No. 24)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Success Rate is an advanced metric that factors in the down and distance in relation to yards gained. A two-yard gain for a running back doesn’t look great in his overall box score, however a two-yard gain on 3rd-and-2 is a successful play. A low success rate on defense means you’re doing a good job of stopping the opponent from achieving successful plays. EPA stands for expected points added per play and it is a measure of how many points a team adds (or loses) on each play compared to the expected value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2026 Florida State Football Schedule<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Date<\/th>Day<\/th>Home\/Away<\/th>Opponent<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
August 29<\/td>Sat<\/td>Home<\/td>New Mexico State<\/td><\/tr>
September 7<\/td>Mon<\/td>Home<\/td>SMU<\/td><\/tr>
Bye<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
September 19<\/td>Sat<\/td>Road<\/td>Alabama<\/td><\/tr>
September 26<\/td>Sat<\/td>Home<\/td>Central Arkansas<\/td><\/tr>
October 3<\/td>Sat<\/td>Home<\/td>Virginia<\/td><\/tr>
October 9<\/td>Fri<\/td>Road<\/td>Louisville<\/td><\/tr>
October 17<\/td>Sat<\/td>Road<\/td>Miami (Fla)<\/td><\/tr>
Bye<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
October 31<\/td>Sat<\/td>Home<\/td>Clemson<\/td><\/tr>
November 7<\/td>Sat<\/td>Road<\/td>Boston College<\/td><\/tr>
November 13<\/td>Fri<\/td>Road<\/td>Pitt<\/td><\/tr>
November 21<\/td>Sat<\/td>Home<\/td>NC State<\/td><\/tr>
November 27<\/td>Fri<\/td>Home<\/td>Florida<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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