{"id":39372,"date":"2026-06-18T10:06:15","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T14:06:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=39372"},"modified":"2026-06-18T10:06:16","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T14:06:16","slug":"ufc-fight-night-kape-vs-horiguchi-picks-predictions-and-odds-june-20-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/mma\/ufc-fight-night-kape-vs-horiguchi-picks-predictions-and-odds-june-20-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi Picks, Predictions and Odds June 20, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions<\/strong> come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang<\/a><\/span> for June 20, 2026 with the main event headlined by Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi<\/strong> in a flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from Meta APEX,\u00a0Las Vegas,\u00a0NV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi<\/strong>:<\/strong> UFC Fight Night Main Event<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Saturday, June 20<\/th>UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)<\/th><\/tr>
Moneyline:<\/td>Manel Kape -156 vs Kyoji Horiguchi +144<\/td><\/tr>
Rounds:<\/td>4.5 (Over -136 \/ Under +108)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Time:<\/td>Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET \/ 5:00pm PT<\/td><\/tr>
Arena:<\/td>Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV<\/td><\/tr>
TV:<\/td>Paramount+<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ion Cutelaba (+245)\u00a0vs Navajo Stirling (-270)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cutelaba remains dangerous early. Three of his last six wins have come in the first round, and if  he catches you early, the fight can end quickly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem is what happens after that. As the fight progresses, his cardio deteriorates, the\u00a0power becomes less effective, and he starts getting picked apart.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stirling continues to improve every time out. He likes working from the clinch, his striking  looked noticeably better in his last appearance, and he’s become much more efficient offensively.  He isn’t a high-volume fighter, but he generally makes his shots count. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I’d love to fade Stirling at this number, but I don’t trust Cutelaba to manage his energy well enough to win multiple rounds. Stirling is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vinicius Oliveira (-235)\u00a0 vs Andre Fili (+195)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliveira is a dynamic striker who does quality work in the clinch, is incredibly durable, and tends to get stronger as fights go on. He often starts slowly but really turns it on in rounds two and\u00a0 three.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only major weakness he’s shown so far came against Mario Bautista, who was able to take\u00a0his back and secure a submission.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fili steps in on short notice and has made a career out of fighting close fights. He doesn’t throw  huge volume, the durability isn’t on Oliveira’s level, and he lacks a clear path to making Oliveira  uncomfortable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliveira should simply be too physical <\/strong>and too durable here. He gets the win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Christian Rodriguez (-150)\u00a0vs Hyder Amil (+138)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This fight likely comes down to whether Rodriguez can secure takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emmers had success putting Amil on the mat in his last fight, and if Rodriguez can duplicate that approach, Amil’s cardio becomes a major concern. Rodriguez could control long stretches of the\u00a0 fight and cruise.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the fight remains standing, things become much more dangerous. Amil is the cleaner and more  dangerous striker, and Rodriguez doesn’t want a prolonged kickboxing match. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both men are on two-fight losing streaks and desperately need a win. Rodriguez seems likely to\u00a0take the safer route<\/strong>, lean on wrestling, and grind out a victory.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Andre Lima (-611)\u00a0vs Kevin Borjas (+500)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lima is undefeated, but I don’t view him as an unbeatable prospect. At some point, he’ll probably run into someone who exposes weaknesses.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, this isn’t the spot. Borjas is 1-4 in the UFC and simply doesn’t do anything at a  particularly high level. This feels like a matchup designed to keep Lima moving forward and  potentially free up a roster spot if Borjas loses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lima is faster, more technical, and better everywhere<\/strong>. Expect him to pile up strikes and win a\u00a0comfortable 30-27 decision.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Melsik Baghdasaryan (+245)\u00a0vs Murtazali Magomedov (-257)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Magomedov is a dynamic striker, but there are still questions about the level of competition he’s faced. We also saw him get dropped and nearly finished before his Contender Series appearance,\u00a0 which raises some concerns about his defense.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With a name like Magomedov, many expect a wrestler, but he’s primarily a striker. That’s important because Melsik’s biggest weakness is his takedown defense. Even though Magomedov\u00a0 prefers striking, we’ve seen him land takedowns when he wants them.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Melsik fades quickly, and I don’t think his striking carries enough power to seriously test\u00a0 Magomedov’s durability. I don’t see much upside for him in this matchup.\u00a0Magomedov by knockout<\/strong> is the call.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bia Mesquita (-491)\u00a0vs Melissa Mullins (+430)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mesquita is a freight train right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She’s run through both UFC opponents by imposing her grappling, overwhelming them with  takedowns, control, submissions, and ground-and-pound. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mullins is capable on the mat, but she’s essentially a lesser version of what Mesquita does.\u00a0Mesquita knows exactly what her strengths are and isn’t likely to overcomplicate things.\u00a0She should get the fight to the ground and find a finish<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mitch Raposo (+170)\u00a0vs Allan Nascimento (-170)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I actually think this price is fairly generous on Nascimento. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His ground game is outstanding. If he gets this fight to the mat, he should dominate positions and  has a very real chance of finding a submission. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Raposo was taken down repeatedly by Maksum in his last fight, which is a concerning sign\u00a0 heading into a matchup like this. On the feet, Raposo is faster and probably the better striker, but\u00a0he’ll either need a knockout or an extended kickboxing match to win.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t think he gets either. Nascimento by submission<\/strong> is the pick.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michael Aswell Jr. (-355)\u00a0vs Gaston Bola\u00f1os (+310)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Aswell had strong offensive wrestling, this price would make a lot more sense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bola\u00f1os has terrible takedown defense, but Aswell hasn’t consistently shown the kind of wrestling attack that fully exploits that weakness.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the feet, Aswell should have the edge in volume and speed. Bola\u00f1os simply hasn’t looked like  a UFC-caliber fighter for most of his run. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aswell is the correct side<\/strong>, but this feels more like a decision than a dominant blowout. Not a\u00a0 fight I’m looking to bet.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Karol Rosa (-127)\u00a0vs Luana Santos (+122)\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I’ll take a shot on Santos here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rosa is just 2-3 over her last five fights and has never really developed a finishing instinct. She doesn’t generate much power on the feet and generally relies on control rather than damage or\u00a0 submissions when grappling.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Santos at least offers more finishing upside. She owns submission victories and may actually  have the better offensive wrestling in this matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a close fight, I’ll take the underdog who has legitimate submission potential. Leon Shahbazyan vs Levan Chokheli <\/p>\n\n\n\n

No strong opinion yet<\/strong>. This is a fight I’ll need to see more tape and betting information on before making a serious assessment.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shane Collins vs Otari Tanzilovi\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another matchup where I don’t have enough information yet to give a confident opinion. I’ll wait for more data<\/strong> before making a betting recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Manel Kape -156 vs Kyoji Horiguchi +144<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This should be an outstanding fight on the feet. Both guys are elite strikers with excellent  movement, footwork, and speed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Horiguchi has looked fantastic since returning to the UFC, going 2-0 and thoroughly dominating\u00a0Amir Albazi. He bloodied Albazi up, controlled the action, and looked fresh at the end of three\u00a0 rounds.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kape is one of the best pure strikers in the division. Historically, his biggest struggles have come  against elite wrestlers and grapplers, which Horiguchi is not at this stage of his career. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think Horiguchi is very live to win a close decision. He’s incredibly fast, difficult to hit clean,\u00a0and could rack up volume while avoiding Kape’s biggest shots. Over five rounds, the value is\u00a0clearly on the underdog<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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