Brendan Allen -213 vs Edmen Shahbazyan +203\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nEdmen's fights tend to follow the same script. He looks fantastic early, dangerous enough to finish almost anyone, and then the cardio falls apart if the fight extends.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Allen's path is obvious. He'll want to wrestle, get the fight to the ground, and force Edmen to work. The problem is that I haven't been overly impressed with Allen lately. He doesn't offer much danger on the feet, makes mistakes, and can leave openings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Edmen has enough gas in the tank, he absolutely has the striking advantage and finishing\u00a0upside. At plus money, I think the underdog is worth a sprinkl<\/strong>e.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFares Ziam -270 vs Tom Nolan +257\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nZiam should simply be too physical for Nolan in this matchup. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Nolan can be baited into firefights, and while he's dangerous when exchanging, he also gets hit far too often. Ziam isn't likely to stand in the pocket and give Nolan those opportunities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Instead, expect Ziam to mix in takedowns, force Nolan to work, and slowly wear him down. The\u00a0 wrestling advantage should carry him to a victory<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBryce Mitchell -149 vs Santiago Luna +118\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThe matchup is pretty straightforward.\u00a0If Mitchell gets Luna to the ground, he dominates. If Luna can keep the fight standing, he should\u00a0 have a clear edge in the striking exchanges.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The problem for Luna is Mitchell's experience and wrestling pressure. Over three rounds<\/strong>, I trust\u00a0Mitchell to find enough takedowns to control the fight and get his hand raised.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMatt Schnell +572 vs Alessandro Costa -721<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSchnell looks finished as a professional fighter.\u00a0The durability is gone, the cardio isn't what it once was, and he's lost six of his last eight fights.\u00a0At this point, it's hard to identify many paths to victory.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Costa has been inconsistent during his UFC run, but he's still a quality striker and this is about as favorable a matchup as he could ask for. Schnell's best chance is finding some kind of\u00a0 submission opportunity, but that's a difficult path to rely on.\u00a0Costa should roll <\/strong>here.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIwo Baraniewski -291 vs Junior Tafa +252\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI've been high on Iwo since Contender Series, but I can't lay this number. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He's a dynamic striker with legitimate finishing ability, but so is Tafa. I've made plenty of money fading Tafa over the years because of the cardio issues and poor takedown defense, but those weaknesses may not matter here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This fight has all the ingredients for an early car crash. Both guys want to strike, both hit hard,\u00a0 and neither is likely to spend much time looking for takedowns.\u00a0Iwo may very well win, but at this price it's Tafa or nothing<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMarcus McGhee -491 vs John Yannis +397\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis feels like one of the easier picks on the card.\u00a0McGhee just went the distance with Petr Yan, who is now the champion. That's elite-level\u00a0 competition compared to what he's facing here.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
McGhee has the better striking, better movement, and is simply the superior fighter everywhere.\u00a0 Yannis is stepping in on short notice after McGhee's original opponent withdrew.\u00a0Don't be surprised if McGhee gets a finish<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBruno Silva -122 vs Edgar Chairez +117\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nChairez looked awful in his last fight, and that's concerning because he was in a matchup where\u00a0 he should have dominated. The striking has looked good throughout his career, and the ground\u00a0game is dangerous, but he appeared slow and disengaged.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Silva is a quality striker who has lost to some very tough competition. He can slow down as fights progress, but early on he should be able to dictate the pace on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This isn't a pre-fight betting spot for me. It's a live betting opportunity. If Chairez comes out looking flat and uninspired, I'd live bet Silva immediately. If Chairez looks aggressive<\/strong>, focused,\u00a0and ready to wrestle, he probably wins the fight on the ground.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nChelsea Chandler -108 vs Priscila Cachoeira +104\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThese are two fighters who have struggled badly over the last few years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Interestingly, the last two wins for both women came against the same opponent, Josiane Nunes. Neither fighter is particularly impressive overall. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cachoeira is unlikely to wrestle, while Chandler has at least shown flashes of takedowns and grappling success during her UFC run. If there's a meaningful edge in this fight, that's where it exists. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The striking is fairly comparable. Chandler gets the pick based on the grappling upside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jordan Leavitt +156 vs Joanderson Brito -163 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI can't lay this price with Brito.\u00a0He's talented, but he makes far too many mistakes, particularly against wrestlers and grapplers.\u00a0 Unfortunately for him, Leavitt's best skill set revolves around getting fights to the mat.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Leavitt is coming off back-to-back wins against opponents who couldn't handle his grappling. Brito put himself in terrible positions against both Gomis and Sabatini, and if he gives Leavitt even one opening, he could spend an entire round stuck underneath him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
At plus money, Leavitt is the side<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJeisla Chaves -376 vs Yuneisy Duben +355\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nChaves has one of the more interesting stories on the roster. She was a ring girl before transitioning into MMA and earned her UFC opportunity through a wild Contender Series fight.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She showed a ton of toughness in that fight. She got knocked down, bloodied up, fought through\u00a0 adversity, and eventually broke her opponent with volume and pressure. The heart, durability,\u00a0and striking output all stood out.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Duben landed one of the craziest knockouts in Contender Series history as a massive underdog,\u00a0 but outside of that moment, she hasn't impressed much. She was knocked out in her UFC debut and remains very limited.\u00a0Chaves should run through her<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKetlen Souza -257 vs Ariane Carnelossi +245\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis has all the makings of a slow, grinding fight.\u00a0Both women prefer clinch-heavy exchanges, but Souza appears to be the better fighter at this\u00a0 stage of their careers. Carnelossi is coming off a disappointing loss in a fight she probably should\u00a0 have won, getting outworked before eventually being finished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Souza should be able to control the clinch positions, rack up control time, and grind out rounds. The most likely outcome is Souza by decision<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Belal Muhammad -130 vs Gabriel Bonfim +102<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Belal can still wrestle, make fights ugly, and rack up control time when he gets things going his\u00a0way. That's always been the foundation of his success.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bonfim has been on a nice run and has shown a well-rounded skill set. He can strike, wrestle, and hunt submissions, but the cardio remains a concern. If he's fading in three-round fights, it's fair to question how he'll handle championship rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Belal has now lost back-to-back fights, and I'm a believer that once some fighters reach their\u00a0 peak and start declining, the drop can come quickly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He looked poor losing the title to Della\u00a0Maddalena and then got outworked by Ian Garry. I don't think the speed or wrestling is quite\u00a0what it used to be. I'll side with the younger, hungry fighter <\/strong>looking to climb the ladder rather than the veteran who may have already reached his ceiling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39116"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39116\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39117,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39116\/revisions\/39117"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34740"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}