Daily Betting Analysis from GoldSheet<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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The conventional narrative for this Champions League title clash at Budapest is offense vs. defense\u2026specifically PSG\u2019s offense vs. Arsenal\u2019s defense. While on the surface that\u2019s not necessarily an inaccurate read, the truth in this outcome will probably be decided somewhere in between, where the lines are a bit more blurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Arsenal’s Current Form<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
For the Gunners, it’s been about defense all season, sometimes to the consternation of a fan base that wants to be a bit more entertained, but who\u2019s to argue with Mikel Arteta\u2019s strategy that provided Arsenal its first EPL crown in 22 years, and has kept the Gunners unbeaten to this stage in the Champions League (allowing only 4 goals in the process)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By us, however, PSG presents an altogether different challenge, one much like a similar Arsenal couldn\u2019t handle in last spring\u2019s semifinal round, when PSG advanced raher comfortably on a 3-1 aggregate. True, a deciding factor in last year\u2019s KO phase was Luis Enrique\u2019s giant GK Gigi Donnarumma, who has since moved to Man City; and serviceable, Matvei Safonov is not as commanding a presence in the box as Donnarumma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yet we suspect the dynamics are going to be much different for Arsenal than they were thru much of the season in the EPL and even in the KO phase of the Campions League, when few opponents have really given it a go and challenged Arteta’s troops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s worth noting that in the two most-recent matches vs. Man City, in the Carabao Cup final on March 22 and a meeting at the Etihad on April 19, Pep Guardiola outmaneuvered Arteta twice in a pair of City wins in which it didn\u2019t concede a goal (2-0 and 1-0), famously in the Cup final not bothering to press Arsenal up high, effectively daring the Gunners to make something happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Arsenal has also caught a bit of a break in the KO phase, getting Sporting Lisbon and Atletico de Madrid (which upset Barcelona in the quarterfinals, sparing Arteta from dealing with the firepower at Hansi Flick\u2019s disposal), both requiring very hard work, while PSG was routing another pair of EPL foes in the knockouts (Chelsea and Liverpool by a combined 12-2) before ousting powerhouse Bayern Munich in the semis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
PSG’s Current Form<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Luis Enrique might not be looking at a similar strategy, but likely went to school on Guardiola’s strategy, and will nonetheless will try to dictate matters, even if hoofing the ball deep and out of bounds, from as early as the opening kickoff, to force Arsenal to play out from the back\u2026something Inter Milan famously couldn\u2019t do in the Champions League final last year, or many Ligue Un foes, or several Champions League opponents, often conceding possession to PSG before the ball gets close to midfield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While PSG\u2019s defense is considered by some to be suspect, it\u2019s more because Luis Enrique\u2019s troops can leave themselves a bit exposed at times with their all-out attack style. Though, in Nuno Mendes, PSG has perhaps the best defender on the planet, and one that looks a proper match for the Gunners’ Bukayo Saka, Arteta\u2019s most creative element in the attacking end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We suspect the dominant PSG midfield puts Arsenal under the pump far more than it has been all season, and that Vitinha, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Fabian Ruiz control the approach before Ballon d\u2019Or holder Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, or D\u00e9sir\u00e9 Dou\u00e9 finish off the build-up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Arsenal vs PSG Prediction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
It will take a heroic effort from Arsenal\u2019s capable GK David Raya to give the Gunners a chance, but we don\u2019t think this will work any better for Arteta against PSG than it did last spring, especially if the Gunners are forced to play from behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The 3-way win price on PSG at +140 or thereabouts (on 90 minutes) looks good value to us and our preferred recommendation, and as Luis Enrique\u2019s charges have been adept at scoring first (often early, as from Demeble in the second leg vs. Bayern Munich, and the Emirates leg of the semis vs. Arsenal a year ago), PSG Halftime\/Fulltime at +275 offers a very real chance at a nicer return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If looking for some fun with supplemental wagers, either Dembele or Doue, or Demberle and Kvararskhelia, to score first would each return +300, while just backing Dembele to score at +175 might be worth a look for a small punt as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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