{"id":38962,"date":"2026-05-19T11:41:56","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T15:41:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=38962"},"modified":"2026-05-19T13:54:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T17:54:21","slug":"2026-fifa-world-cup-dark-horses-the-best-longshot-world-cup-picks-to-target","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/soccer\/2026-fifa-world-cup-dark-horses-the-best-longshot-world-cup-picks-to-target\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 FIFA World Cup Dark Horses: The Best Longshot World Cup Picks to Target"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>When most bettors look at the <strong>2026 FIFA World Cup<\/strong> <strong>picks<\/strong>, they are immediately going to gravitate toward the obvious favorites. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Teams like Argentina, Spain and France are always going to attract heavy action because casual bettors naturally feel safer backing the biggest names in international soccer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the reality of betting futures markets is that value is rarely found at the top of the board. The best World Cup picks often come from identifying teams that are mispriced relative to their actual path through the tournament. That is exactly the approach behind these 2026 World Cup predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The focus here is not necessarily on finding the outright winner of the tournament. Instead, the goal is to identify longshot World Cup bets that have the potential to dramatically increase in value as the tournament progresses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With many sportsbooks now offering cash-out options, bettors no longer need a dark horse to actually win the World Cup in order to profit. A team that reaches the quarterfinals or semifinals can create enormous hedging and cash-out opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Longshot World Cup Bets Offer Value<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the biggest advantages of betting dark horses in a tournament like the World Cup is market inflation on elite teams. Favorites carry shorter prices because sportsbooks know public bettors will automatically back them regardless of value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, overlooked nations with strong goalkeeping, tournament experience and favorable group-stage paths can quietly become dangerous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The strategy is simple:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Find teams capable of advancing from the group stage<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Look for paths into the Round of 16 or quarterfinals<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Take advantage of inflated futures prices<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hedge or cash out later if the odds collapse<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This makes longshot World Cup bets especially attractive compared to traditional outright betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Croatia (+8000): Tournament Pedigree Matters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Croatia Remains One of the Strongest Dark Horse World Cup Picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Croatia at +8000 stands out immediately because this is a team with proven World Cup pedigree. While many bettors focus entirely on younger or flashier squads, Croatia has consistently shown it can perform under tournament pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a team that finished third at the most recent World Cup in Qatar and was runner-up in the 2018 World Cup in Russia. More importantly, Croatia\u2019s only losses across those two tournaments came against teams that eventually won the title.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That type of tournament consistency matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though Croatia struggled in the 2024 Euros and failed to advance from a difficult group featuring Spain, Italy and Albania, there is still significant respect for the core structure of this squad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dominik Livakovi\u0107 Could Be the Difference<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the most important factors when betting World Cup futures is goalkeeping, particularly in knockout-stage soccer where penalty shootouts often decide matches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Croatia possesses one of the best penalty shootout goalkeepers in the competition in Dominik Livakovi\u0107. He was instrumental in Croatia\u2019s previous World Cup success, especially in shootout wins over Japan and Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Having an elite shot-stopper creates massive value in futures betting because knockout soccer often comes down to margins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Croatia also still carries veteran leadership through Luka Modri\u0107 while blending experienced players with younger talent and a strong midfield structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At +8000, Croatia is exactly the kind of longshot World Cup bet capable of creating hedge opportunities later in the tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japan (+5000): A Dangerous Team Nobody Wants to Face<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japan Could Win Its Group<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Japan at +5000 may be one of the most intriguing World Cup predictions on the board because of how structurally sound this team is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Placed in a group with Tunisia, the Netherlands and Sweden, Japan has a realistic path not only to advance but potentially to win the group outright.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is not a team built around one global superstar. Instead, Japan thrives through organization, relentless pressure and tactical discipline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Japan Is Built for Tournament Soccer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Japan already proved in the previous World Cup that it can compete with elite nations after defeating both Germany and Spain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That matters psychologically entering another major tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The team\u2019s strengths are clear:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Constant pressing<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Quick attacking players<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strong dribbling ability<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tactical structure<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Experienced European-based players<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The roster is filled with players competing in leagues across Europe, including the Bundesliga, Belgium and Austria. Many also carry Champions League and Europa League experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Japan also has stability in goal with Suzuki, who plays in Serie A.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even with some absences, this remains a deep and organized squad capable of making a surprising run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pavlos Laguretos 2026 World Cup Premium Pick Info Below<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wt.buzz\/pl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"748\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-19-at-11.21.41-AM-1024x748.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-38964\" style=\"width:542px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-19-at-11.21.41-AM-1024x748.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-19-at-11.21.41-AM-300x219.png 300w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-19-at-11.21.41-AM-768x561.png 768w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-19-at-11.21.41-AM.png 1464w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Turkey (+10000): Massive Odds Create Massive Value<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Turkey Could Be the Best Pure Value Bet<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Turkey at +10000 is one of the biggest numbers among legitimate dark horses, and that alone makes the team difficult to ignore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Placed in a challenging group with the United States, Paraguay and Australia, Turkey still appears talented enough to advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The emotional intensity of Turkish soccer cannot be overlooked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a team that consistently plays with passion, energy and national pride.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Turkey\u2019s Strengths and Weaknesses<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Turkey possesses a talented generation featuring players like Arda G\u00fcler and Kenan Yildiz, along with a squad capable of competing physically and technically against teams of similar quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The concern is discipline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turkey has shown a tendency to lose composure away from home, committing unnecessary fouls, taking bad red cards and making emotional mistakes in difficult road environments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, at +10000, the upside outweighs the risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A team capable of reaching the Round of 16 or quarterfinals at that number immediately becomes valuable for hedging or cash-out purposes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Senegal (+11000): The African Dark Horse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Senegal Has the Defensive Foundation for a Deep Run<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Senegal at +11000 is one of the strongest longshot World Cup bets because of its combination of defensive quality, tournament experience and high-level talent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a team loaded with players competing in top leagues around the world, including the Premier League and Serie A.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The roster also features proven international stars like Sadio Man\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Group I Could Produce Multiple Contenders<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Senegal lands in Group I alongside France, Norway and Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The belief here is that Iraq is one of the weakest teams in the competition, creating a realistic opportunity for France, Senegal and Norway all to advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That makes Senegal especially dangerous because once a defensively organized team reaches the knockout stage, variance becomes extremely important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Strong defenses and good goalkeeping often outperform public expectations in tournament soccer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At +11000, Senegal carries enormous upside relative to the market price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Norway (+3000): Haaland and S\u00f8rloth Create Problems<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Norway\u2019s Attack Gives It Legitimate Upside<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Norway is not as long of a shot as the other teams listed, but +3000 still offers enough value because of the attacking talent available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Erling Haaland and Alexander S\u00f8rloth create one of the most physically dangerous front lines in the tournament, while Martin \u00d8degaard provides creativity behind them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Norway also benefits from being in the same favorable Group I setup alongside France, Senegal and Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a team capable of scoring goals against anyone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">One of the Best World Cup Bets: Group I to Produce the Winner (+450)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Group I Offers Massive Futures Value<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the most interesting World Cup bets available is backing Group I to produce the eventual World Cup champion at +450.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That ticket includes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>France<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Senegal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Norway<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Iraq<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The logic is straightforward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>France alone gives this wager massive upside because of its overwhelming talent level. Meanwhile, Senegal and Norway are both viewed as dangerous dark horses capable of deep runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead of choosing one individual team, bettors can capture exposure to multiple contenders through a single futures position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"epyt-video-wrapper\"><div  style=\"display: block; margin: 0px auto;\"  id=\"_ytid_18547\"  width=\"870\" height=\"489\"  data-origwidth=\"870\" data-origheight=\"489\" data-facadesrc=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/jmdoebb-Nws?enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com&#038;autoplay=0&#038;cc_load_policy=1&#038;cc_lang_pref=&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;loop=0&#038;rel=0&#038;fs=1&#038;playsinline=0&#038;autohide=2&#038;hl=en_US&#038;theme=dark&#038;color=red&#038;controls=1&#038;disablekb=0&#038;\" class=\"__youtube_prefs__ epyt-facade  epyt-is-override  no-lazyload\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-spai-excluded=\"true\" class=\"epyt-facade-poster skip-lazy\" loading=\"lazy\"  alt=\"2026 World Cup Dark Horse Bets: Best Longshots You Need to Know\"  src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/jmdoebb-Nws\/maxresdefault.jpg\"  \/><button class=\"epyt-facade-play\" aria-label=\"Play\"><svg data-no-lazy=\"1\" height=\"100%\" version=\"1.1\" viewBox=\"0 0 68 48\" width=\"100%\"><path class=\"ytp-large-play-button-bg\" d=\"M66.52,7.74c-0.78-2.93-2.49-5.41-5.42-6.19C55.79,.13,34,0,34,0S12.21,.13,6.9,1.55 C3.97,2.33,2.27,4.81,1.48,7.74C0.06,13.05,0,24,0,24s0.06,10.95,1.48,16.26c0.78,2.93,2.49,5.41,5.42,6.19 C12.21,47.87,34,48,34,48s21.79-0.13,27.1-1.55c2.93-0.78,4.64-3.26,5.42-6.19C67.94,34.95,68,24,68,24S67.94,13.05,66.52,7.74z\" fill=\"#f00\"><\/path><path d=\"M 45,24 27,14 27,34\" fill=\"#fff\"><\/path><\/svg><\/button><\/div><\/div><span itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><meta itemprop=\"embedUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/jmdoebb-Nws\"><meta itemprop=\"name\" content=\"2026 World Cup Dark Horse Bets: Best Longshots You Need to Know\"><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"If you are looking for World Cup predictions, we have you covered! Our soccer handicapping experts discuss the match from a sports betting perspective, sharing their picks and predictions vs. the current odds. 00:00 Introduction &amp; World Cup GOAL Special! 01:14 Argentina, France, Spain 01:59 Croatia 04:58 Japan 07:17 Turkey 09:40 Senegal 11:00 Norway 11:41 Group Future 13:49 Ronaldo vs Messi? 15:30 What are YOUR best longshots? 16:00 $1 GOAL Promo #fifaworldcup #worldcup2026 #soccerpicks \u26bd 2026 FIFA World Cup Preview | Host Cities, TV Schedule, Betting Odds &amp; Tournament Facts \ud83c\udf0e\ud83c\udfc6 The 2026 FIFA World Cup officially kicks off on June 11, 2026, and will be the biggest tournament in football history. Hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, this year\u2019s competition features a record 48 national teams competing across North America in 104 total matches. The opening match is scheduled for historic Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, while the championship match will be played on July 19, 2026, at MetLife Stadium in the New York\/New Jersey area. \ud83c\udf0d 2026 FIFA World Cup Host Cities United States: Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, New York\/New Jersey, Philadelphia, San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle Canada: Toronto, Vancouver Mexico: Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey This will be the first FIFA World Cup ever hosted by three nations and the first tournament to feature 48 teams instead of 32. \ud83d\udcfa How to Watch the 2026 FIFA World Cup United States TV Coverage: FOX Sports, FS1, FOX Deportes, Telemundo Streaming Options: FOX Sports App, Peacock, Telemundo Deportes App, FuboTV and other live TV streaming services Radio Coverage: SiriusXM FC and local sports radio affiliates are expected to carry tournament coverage throughout the event. \ud83c\udfdf\ufe0f 2026 World Cup Format \u2022 48 teams divided into 12 groups of four \u2022 Each team plays three group stage matches \u2022 Top two teams from each group advance \u2022 Eight best third-place teams also move on \u2022 Expanded knockout stage begins with a Round of 32 \u2022 Teams reaching the Final could play up to eight matches The new format increases the total number of matches from 64 to 104. \ud83d\udcb0 2026 FIFA World Cup Odds to Win (Current futures odds subject to change) France \u2014 +500 Spain \u2014 +500 England \u2014 +650 Brazil \u2014 +800 Argentina \u2014 +900 Portugal \u2014 +1100 Germany \u2014 +1400 Netherlands \u2014 +1600 Belgium \u2014 +2200 Croatia \u2014 +3000 Norway \u2014 +3000 Morocco \u2014 +3500 United States \u2014 +6000 Japan \u2014 +5000 Mexico \u2014 +8000 Uruguay \u2014 +4000 Colombia \u2014 +5000 Denmark \u2014 +6600 Switzerland \u2014 +8000 Senegal \u2014 +10000 Canada \u2014 +12500 South Korea \u2014 +15000 Serbia \u2014 +15000 Poland \u2014 +20000 Austria \u2014 +20000 T\u00fcrkiye \u2014 +20000 Scotland \u2014 +25000 Ukraine \u2014 +25000 Sweden \u2014 +25000 Nigeria \u2014 +30000 Egypt \u2014 +30000 Algeria \u2014 +40000 Cameroon \u2014 +40000 Australia \u2014 +50000 Iran \u2014 +50000 Saudi Arabia \u2014 +75000 Costa Rica \u2014 +100000 South Africa \u2014 +100000 Iraq \u2014 +150000 Uzbekistan \u2014 +200000 Cura\u00e7ao \u2014 +250000 Haiti \u2014 +250000 Odds compiled from major sportsbooks and international betting markets. \ud83d\udd25 Interesting Facts About the 2026 World Cup \u2022 Mexico becomes the first nation ever to host FIFA World Cup matches in three different tournaments (1970, 1986, 2026) \u2022 Estadio Azteca will become the first stadium to host World Cup opening matches in three different tournaments \u2022 The tournament spans 39 days, making it the longest World Cup ever \u2022 The 2026 edition introduces a brand-new Round of 32 stage \u2022 The United States is hosting the majority of the tournament\u2019s matches \u2022 New mascots representing all three host nations were unveiled in 2025 \u2022 Several nations including Uzbekistan and Cura\u00e7ao are making historic first-ever World Cup appearances \u2022 Defending champions Argentina are attempting to become the first repeat champions since Brazil in 1962 #FIFAWorldCup #WorldCup2026 #USMNT #Mexico #Canada #Football #Soccer #WorldCup #FIFA #WorldCupOdds #SportsBetting #Qatar2022 #WorldCupPreview \ud83d\udc4d Make sure to SUBSCRIBE to WagerTalk TV; \ud83d\udd14 CLICK the Bell and never miss an episode! \u26bd\ufe0f More Free CONCACAF Gold Cup Picks: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/soccer \ud83e\udd11 Free Sports Picks: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks \ud83d\udcca Live Odds: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds \ud83d\uddde\ufe0f News: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news \ud83d\udc4d Stay connected with WagerTalk \ud83d\udcfa YouTube: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/tv \ud83d\udc4d Facebook: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/fb \ud83d\udc26 Twitter: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/tw \ud83d\udcf8 Instagram: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/ig \ud83d\udcf0 Reddit: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/rd \u2764\ufe0f iHeart Radio: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/iheart \ud83c\udf4e Apple Podcasts: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/ap \ud83d\udccc Pinterest: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/pin\"><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/jmdoebb-Nws\/0.jpg\"><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT19M10S\"><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2026-05-18T22:00:45Z\"><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Portugal Was Left Off the Card<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Concerns Around Roberto Mart\u00ednez<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Portugal remains a popular dark horse selection at around +1100, especially because many bettors view this as Cristiano Ronaldo\u2019s final World Cup appearance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, there are serious concerns surrounding manager Roberto Mart\u00ednez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The criticism centers around his inability to maximize elite generations of talent, dating back to his time managing Belgium\u2019s golden generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are also tactical concerns involving Ronaldo\u2019s role in the lineup, with the belief that Portugal often plays better without him starting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That uncertainty makes Portugal difficult to trust despite its talent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Final Thoughts on the Best 2026 World Cup Picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The best World Cup predictions are rarely about simply identifying the strongest team. Futures betting is about finding value, identifying mispriced odds and positioning yourself to profit later in the tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Croatia, Japan, Turkey, Senegal and Norway all offer different forms of value depending on your risk tolerance and betting strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether bettors choose to cash out, hedge or ride the ticket all the way through the tournament, these dark horse World Cup bets present significantly more upside than blindly backing public favorites at short prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WagerTalk Live Odds Screen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds?sport=L5&amp;type=4&amp;cb=0.041518762314237456\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track moneylines, spreads, totals and betting percentages for a variety of domestic and international leagues. Find <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/soccer\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/soccer\">free soccer picks<\/a>, player props, odds and more!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/wt.buzz\/odds\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vegas lines<\/a> updated in real time, including who the public is betting on<\/span> and anytime touchdown scorer odds.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Last Minute Handicapping Advice<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">: Check out our extensive library of <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/sports-betting-guide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">handicapping tips<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sports betting tips video library<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">)<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Want an expert opinion?<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> Check out the latest <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Free Sports Picks<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Best Bets<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> from our team of expert sports handicappers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When most bettors look at the 2026 FIFA World Cup picks, they are immediately going to gravitate toward the obvious favorites. Teams like Argentina, Spain and France are always going to attract heavy action because casual bettors naturally feel safer backing the biggest names in international soccer. But the reality of betting futures markets is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":38965,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[137],"tags":[16082,16086,16083,16084,1894,16081,16080,16085,16079],"class_list":["post-38962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-soccer","tag-2026-world-cup","tag-2026-world-cup-odds","tag-2026-world-cup-picks","tag-2026-world-cup-predictions","tag-world-cup","tag-world-cup-best-bets","tag-world-cup-bets","tag-world-cup-odds","tag-world-cup-predictions"],"basic_html":"\n<p>When most bettors look at the <strong>2026 FIFA World Cup<\/strong> <strong>picks<\/strong>, they are immediately going to gravitate toward the obvious favorites. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Teams like Argentina, Spain and France are always going to attract heavy action because casual bettors naturally feel safer backing the biggest names in international soccer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>But the reality of betting futures markets is that value is rarely found at the top of the board. The best World Cup picks often come from identifying teams that are mispriced relative to their actual path through the tournament. That is exactly the approach behind these 2026 World Cup predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The focus here is not necessarily on finding the outright winner of the tournament. Instead, the goal is to identify longshot World Cup bets that have the potential to dramatically increase in value as the tournament progresses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>With many sportsbooks now offering cash-out options, bettors no longer need a dark horse to actually win the World Cup in order to profit. A team that reaches the quarterfinals or semifinals can create enormous hedging and cash-out opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Longshot World Cup Bets Offer Value<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>One of the biggest advantages of betting dark horses in a tournament like the World Cup is market inflation on elite teams. Favorites carry shorter prices because sportsbooks know public bettors will automatically back them regardless of value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, overlooked nations with strong goalkeeping, tournament experience and favorable group-stage paths can quietly become dangerous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The strategy is simple:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This makes longshot World Cup bets especially attractive compared to traditional outright betting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Croatia (+8000): Tournament Pedigree Matters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Croatia Remains One of the Strongest Dark Horse World Cup Picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Croatia at +8000 stands out immediately because this is a team with proven World Cup pedigree. While many bettors focus entirely on younger or flashier squads, Croatia has consistently shown it can perform under tournament pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This is a team that finished third at the most recent World Cup in Qatar and was runner-up in the 2018 World Cup in Russia. More importantly, Croatia\u2019s only losses across those two tournaments came against teams that eventually won the title.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>That type of tournament consistency matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Even though Croatia struggled in the 2024 Euros and failed to advance from a difficult group featuring Spain, Italy and Albania, there is still significant respect for the core structure of this squad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dominik Livakovi\u0107 Could Be the Difference<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>One of the most important factors when betting World Cup futures is goalkeeping, particularly in knockout-stage soccer where penalty shootouts often decide matches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Croatia possesses one of the best penalty shootout goalkeepers in the competition in Dominik Livakovi\u0107. He was instrumental in Croatia\u2019s previous World Cup success, especially in shootout wins over Japan and Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Having an elite shot-stopper creates massive value in futures betting because knockout soccer often comes down to margins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Croatia also still carries veteran leadership through Luka Modri\u0107 while blending experienced players with younger talent and a strong midfield structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>At +8000, Croatia is exactly the kind of longshot World Cup bet capable of creating hedge opportunities later in the tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japan (+5000): A Dangerous Team Nobody Wants to Face<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japan Could Win Its Group<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Japan at +5000 may be one of the most intriguing World Cup predictions on the board because of how structurally sound this team is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Placed in a group with Tunisia, the Netherlands and Sweden, Japan has a realistic path not only to advance but potentially to win the group outright.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This is not a team built around one global superstar. Instead, Japan thrives through organization, relentless pressure and tactical discipline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Japan Is Built for Tournament Soccer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Japan already proved in the previous World Cup that it can compete with elite nations after defeating both Germany and Spain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>That matters psychologically entering another major tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The team\u2019s strengths are clear:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The roster is filled with players competing in leagues across Europe, including the Bundesliga, Belgium and Austria. Many also carry Champions League and Europa League experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Japan also has stability in goal with Suzuki, who plays in Serie A.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Even with some absences, this remains a deep and organized squad capable of making a surprising run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pavlos Laguretos 2026 World Cup Premium Pick Info Below<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wt.buzz\/pl\"><img src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Screenshot-2026-05-19-at-11.21.41-AM-1024x748.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-38964\" style=\"width:542px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Turkey (+10000): Massive Odds Create Massive Value<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Turkey Could Be the Best Pure Value Bet<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Turkey at +10000 is one of the biggest numbers among legitimate dark horses, and that alone makes the team difficult to ignore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Placed in a challenging group with the United States, Paraguay and Australia, Turkey still appears talented enough to advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The emotional intensity of Turkish soccer cannot be overlooked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This is a team that consistently plays with passion, energy and national pride.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Turkey\u2019s Strengths and Weaknesses<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Turkey possesses a talented generation featuring players like Arda G\u00fcler and Kenan Yildiz, along with a squad capable of competing physically and technically against teams of similar quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The concern is discipline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Turkey has shown a tendency to lose composure away from home, committing unnecessary fouls, taking bad red cards and making emotional mistakes in difficult road environments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Still, at +10000, the upside outweighs the risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>A team capable of reaching the Round of 16 or quarterfinals at that number immediately becomes valuable for hedging or cash-out purposes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Senegal (+11000): The African Dark Horse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Senegal Has the Defensive Foundation for a Deep Run<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Senegal at +11000 is one of the strongest longshot World Cup bets because of its combination of defensive quality, tournament experience and high-level talent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This is a team loaded with players competing in top leagues around the world, including the Premier League and Serie A.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The roster also features proven international stars like Sadio Man\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Group I Could Produce Multiple Contenders<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Senegal lands in Group I alongside France, Norway and Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The belief here is that Iraq is one of the weakest teams in the competition, creating a realistic opportunity for France, Senegal and Norway all to advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>That makes Senegal especially dangerous because once a defensively organized team reaches the knockout stage, variance becomes extremely important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Strong defenses and good goalkeeping often outperform public expectations in tournament soccer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>At +11000, Senegal carries enormous upside relative to the market price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Norway (+3000): Haaland and S\u00f8rloth Create Problems<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Norway\u2019s Attack Gives It Legitimate Upside<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Norway is not as long of a shot as the other teams listed, but +3000 still offers enough value because of the attacking talent available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Erling Haaland and Alexander S\u00f8rloth create one of the most physically dangerous front lines in the tournament, while Martin \u00d8degaard provides creativity behind them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Norway also benefits from being in the same favorable Group I setup alongside France, Senegal and Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This is a team capable of scoring goals against anyone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">One of the Best World Cup Bets: Group I to Produce the Winner (+450)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Group I Offers Massive Futures Value<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>One of the most interesting World Cup bets available is backing Group I to produce the eventual World Cup champion at +450.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>That ticket includes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The logic is straightforward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>France alone gives this wager massive upside because of its overwhelming talent level. Meanwhile, Senegal and Norway are both viewed as dangerous dark horses capable of deep runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Instead of choosing one individual team, bettors can capture exposure to multiple contenders through a single futures position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/jmdoebb-Nws?origin=https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Portugal Was Left Off the Card<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Concerns Around Roberto Mart\u00ednez<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Portugal remains a popular dark horse selection at around +1100, especially because many bettors view this as Cristiano Ronaldo\u2019s final World Cup appearance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>However, there are serious concerns surrounding manager Roberto Mart\u00ednez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The criticism centers around his inability to maximize elite generations of talent, dating back to his time managing Belgium\u2019s golden generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>There are also tactical concerns involving Ronaldo\u2019s role in the lineup, with the belief that Portugal often plays better without him starting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>That uncertainty makes Portugal difficult to trust despite its talent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Final Thoughts on the Best 2026 World Cup Picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The best World Cup predictions are rarely about simply identifying the strongest team. Futures betting is about finding value, identifying mispriced odds and positioning yourself to profit later in the tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Croatia, Japan, Turkey, Senegal and Norway all offer different forms of value depending on your risk tolerance and betting strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Whether bettors choose to cash out, hedge or ride the ticket all the way through the tournament, these dark horse World Cup bets present significantly more upside than blindly backing public favorites at short prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WagerTalk Live Odds Screen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds?sport=L5&amp;type=4&amp;cb=0.041518762314237456\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track moneylines, spreads, totals and betting percentages for a variety of domestic and international leagues. Find <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/soccer\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/soccer\">free soccer picks<\/a>, player props, odds and more!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/54"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38962"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38962\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38976,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38962\/revisions\/38976"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38965"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}