{"id":38925,"date":"2026-05-14T12:16:42","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T16:16:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=38925"},"modified":"2026-05-14T12:16:44","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T16:16:44","slug":"ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-costa-picks-predictions-and-odds-may-16-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/mma\/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-costa-picks-predictions-and-odds-may-16-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa Picks, Predictions and Odds May 16, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions<\/strong> come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang<\/a><\/span> for May 16, 2026 with the main event headlined by Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa<\/strong> in a featherweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from Meta APEX,\u00a0Las Vegas,\u00a0NV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa:<\/strong> UFC Fight Night Main Event<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Saturday, May 16<\/th>UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)<\/th><\/tr>
Moneyline:<\/td>Arnold Allen -154 vs Melquizael Costa +120<\/td><\/tr>
Rounds:<\/td>3.5 (Over -106 \/ Under -120)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Time:<\/td>Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET \/ 5:00pm PT<\/td><\/tr>
Arena:<\/td>Meta APEX,\u00a0Las Vegas,\u00a0NV<\/td><\/tr>
TV:<\/td>Paramount+<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Doo Ho Choi +150 vs Daniel Santos -156\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is Santos\u2019 third straight fight against a Korean fighter for some reason, but Choi is clearly\u00a0the best of the group. Choi returned after military service and hasn\u2019t lost in three fights, with two finishes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He hasn\u2019t fought since December 2024 and is now 35, but he still has timely takedowns\u00a0 and finishing ability everywhere. Santos feels like he\u2019s been surviving against lesser competition.\u00a0Choi is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Malcolm Wellmaker -257 vs Juan Diaz +245\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wellmaker got humbled in his first loss against the aggressive Ethyn Ewing. He looked complacent and lacked urgency, which could actually help him here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diaz is exciting and\u00a0dangerous with power, but he\u2019s not an elite prospect and has gone to decision plenty against\u00a0 average competition. I expect Wellmaker to rebound with more aggression and sharper striking.\u00a0 Wellmaker is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Timmy Cuamba +150 vs Benardo Sopaj -156\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Close fight, I\u2019ll take the dog. Sopaj struggled badly against Ricky Turcios, which is concerning.\u00a0There\u2019s not much power or offense in his striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cuamba can get hit, but I\u2019m not convinced\u00a0Sopaj can damage him enough. Cuamba showed improved takedown defense against a grappler last fight and should have success on the feet while possibly mixing in some wrestling. Cuamba is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nikolay Veretennikov -103 vs Khaos Williams -121\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Veretennikov makes constant mistakes. He gets taken down too easily, and I thought he lost his last fight. His striking isn\u2019t impressive and it\u2019s hard to identify what he actually does well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khaos has looked terrible recently too, getting submitted and then taking a brutal beating from\u00a0 Gustafsson. His last win came against a weak Carlston Harris. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a fight between two\u00a0struggling fighters \u2014 best bet is fight goes the distance. Slight lean to Khaos<\/strong> because\u00a0Veretennikov is too mistake-prone.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuco Tokkos +163 vs Ivan Erslan -170\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neither fighter looks UFC caliber. Both have major flaws. Erslan\u2019s striking is slightly better, and\u00a0even though he lost his last fight through wrestling, Tokkos isn\u2019t a strong wrestler either. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tokkos\u00a0only won his last fight because his opponent completely gassed. Erslan is the pick<\/strong>, but this fight\u00a0isn\u2019t worth betting.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thomas Grantt -265 vs Artur Minev +200\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minev is stepping in on short notice and does have decent striking and speed, but Grantt is on another level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Training with Daniel Cormier is a major plus, and Grantt showed improved wrestling and takedowns on Contender Series. He should dominate this matchup. Grantt is the\u00a0pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ketlen Vieira +156 vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti -163\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vieira is the pick. She\u2019s fought significantly better competition and held her own against names like Dumont, Harrison, and Pennington. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

She\u2019s physically strong and may actually be faster than\u00a0Cavalcanti on the feet. She nearly beat Dumont in her last fight and would likely be facing a\u00a0much bigger opponent if she had gotten that decision. Cavalcanti isn\u2019t very aggressive or high volume. Clear dog or pass situation<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Andre Petroski -194 vs Cody Brundage +186\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both fighters desperately need a win, especially Brundage. He\u2019s lost three straight and could\u00a0arguably have seven straight losses without weird disqualifications and no contests. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He doesn\u2019t\u00a0wrestle much anymore, his striking defense is poor, and he tends to quit when facing adversity.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Petroski is a slow-paced grinder who succeeds against weak takedown defense, but his cardio\u00a0 and offense are major concerns. This should be ugly and boring. Fight goes the distance is the\u00a0best play<\/strong>. Brundage or nothing at the current price.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alice Ardelean -194 vs Polyana Viana +186\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I never thought Ardelean would win in the UFC, but she\u2019s improved and now has two straight wins. Her striking isn\u2019t pretty, but she pressures forward and has learned how to steal rounds\u00a0late. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Viana looks completely washed \u2014 she\u2019s been finished in three straight and offers very little\u00a0offense anymore. Ardelean should outwork her and possibly get a finish<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daniel Barez -100 vs Luis Gurule -104\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gurule has no upside at the UFC level. He fades after the first round and no longer has the power or wrestling to compensate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Barez isn\u2019t amazing either, but he\u2019s fought tougher competition and\u00a0already has a UFC win. If he survives the first round, he should grind out rounds two and three\u00a0 for a decision. Fight goes the distance<\/strong> is the play.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shauna Bannon +203 vs Nicolle Caliari -213\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caliari has questionable striking defense and cardio, but her wrestling advantage is obvious here.\u00a0 Bannon cannot stop takedowns and was submitted last fight after being controlled on the mat.\u00a0 Straightforward matchup \u2014 Caliari gets takedowns and wins<\/strong> the fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Arnold Allen -154 vs Melquizael Costa +120<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tough fight \u2014 I like both guys, but I lean Costa at plus money. Both can strike, but Costa throws the bigger shots and creates more dynamic moments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has two straight KO wins, while Allen\u00a0 has only one finish since 2018, and that came after his opponent injured his leg and retired. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Allen\u00a0has lost 3 of his last 4 against top competition, and his only recent win came against an aging\u00a0 kickboxer. Costa can also grapple and submit, giving him more paths to victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five-round\u00a0cardio is the concern, but Costa is the pick<\/strong> because of his explosiveness and ability to sway\u00a0 judges with bigger moments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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