Daily Betting Analysis from GoldSheet<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Atletico Madrid’s Current Form<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis is Atleti.\u201d So said manager Diego Simeone earlier this spring about his Atletico de Madrid after seeing off Barcelona in the Copa del Rey, hanging on after taking a 4-0 lead into the second leg. Simeone could have said the same after the Champions League quarterfinal vs. the same Barca, when Atleti made a 2-0 lead after the first leg (only this time, the first leg was at the Camp Nou) stand up in a nervous reverse fixture at the Metropolitano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cSuffering\u201d is the unofficial motto of Simeone\u2019s Atleti, which has achieved much in his dozen years at the helm but also come agonizingly close to achieving much, much more, especially in the Champions League. Where, perhaps in a sign of changing fortunes this season, Simeone doesn\u2019t have to face crosstown nemesis Real Madrid, which has sent so many daggers into the heart of Atleti supporters in this competition, most recently last March in a controversial knockout round shootout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Simeone\u2019s side has its customary scrap, and the winter transfer addition of Ademola Lookman from Atalanta has added another sharp edge to the attack that has also found a consistent source of goals in Norwegian frontliner Alexander Sorloth, a bit slow-moving but often in the right place as last Saturday vs. Athletic Bilbao when scoring a brace in a much-needed 3-2 win, breaking a four-match slump partly due to Simeone changing his lineups frequently to make sure he has a full-strength 11 for the Champions league assault. The recent return of GK Jan Oblak should be another plus for Simeone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Arsenal’s Current Form<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Now, Simeone gets Arsenal and a first leg semi at the Metropolitano, but it\u2019s not the same Gunners who looked so swashbuckling in the fall, and put four goals past Atleti in a short 13-minute span last October 21 at the Emirates in a group phase match when Mikel Arteta\u2019s side was running roughshod.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not so much lately, however, even though technically still clinging to the top spot in the EPL (2nd-place Man City has a match-in-hand), as the set-piece goals have mostly dried up since the first half of the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Never looking all that smooth from the run-of-play to begin with, it\u2019s the Gunners fans who are now doing the suffering as they watch their team. The much-needed 1-0 win over Newcastle last weekend hardly impressed and came with a price, as both Kai Havertz and Eberechi Eze (who combined have scored Arsenal\u2019s only two goals across their past three matches) were forced off, their statuses for Wednesday up in the air.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Absent creative elements, and lacking ambition the past month, Arteta is running out of time to get the Gunners, who have only won two of their last seven, back to pre-New Year\u2019s form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Atleti have been involved in various wild affairs lately, with scorelines featuring at least three goals in eight of the last nine, though \u201cthe same old Arsenal\u201d and its recently-dreary style might suggest otherwise on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Perhaps; still, we think Simeone might be able to steal a first-leg result here, as Atleti have been doing in recent knockout-round competitions, and the Gunners look ripe for the taking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The safer call, at a less-appealing price, is Atleti on the Asian Line +0.25 goals at -140 or so, though we\u2019re feeling a bit more brave here with the Simeone vibe and would rather roll the dice with Atleti on the win at +210, as no manager is better at instilling belief in his squad against the odds than Diego.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Considering Atleti’s recent scorelines, we could also see the \u201cover\u201d 2.5 goals at +120, while Atleti livewire Julian Alvarez and Arsenal\u2019s Viktor Gy\u00f6keres, both at +210 to score, might be worth supplemental positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For a real walk on the wild side with a flyer, a 2-1 Atleti scoreline would return +1100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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