{"id":38498,"date":"2026-03-26T12:05:25","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T16:05:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=38498"},"modified":"2026-03-26T12:11:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T16:11:05","slug":"ufc-fight-night-adesanya-vs-pyfer-picks-predictions-and-odds-march-28-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/mma\/ufc-fight-night-adesanya-vs-pyfer-picks-predictions-and-odds-march-28-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer Picks, Predictions and Odds March 28, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions<\/strong> come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang<\/a><\/span> for March 28, 2026 with the main event headlined by Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer<\/strong> in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from Climate Pledge Arena,\u00a0Seattle,\u00a0WA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer:<\/strong> UFC Fight Night Main Event<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Saturday, March 28<\/th>UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)<\/th><\/tr>
Moneyline:<\/td>Israel Adesanya -150 vs Joe Pyfer +125<\/td><\/tr>
Rounds:<\/td>3.5 (Over -135 \/ Under +105)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Time:<\/td>Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET \/ 5:00pm PT<\/td><\/tr>
Arena:<\/td>Climate Pledge Arena,\u00a0Seattle,\u00a0WA<\/td><\/tr>
TV:<\/td>Paramount+<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Alexa Grasso +124 vs Maycee Barber -158\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Barber has had issues outside the cage, both physically and mentally, but if she\u2019s healthy she\u00a0should win. She\u2019s very physical with her wrestling and clinch work, which should give Grasso\u00a0 problems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grasso likely has the edge in striking, but if Barber gets one takedown she can control\u00a0 the fight. Best bet here is the fight to go the distance<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Julian Erosa +235 vs Lerryan Douglas -320\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I like Douglas, but not at this price. He\u2019s a Contender Series winner, though his opponent was\u00a0 very weak. Douglas is a solid striker but can be hit, and Erosa has a dangerous submission game.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Douglas makes one mistake, Erosa can capitalize. Douglas probably wins<\/strong>, but it\u2019s a pass from\u00a0 a betting standpoint.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mansur Abdul-Malik -158 vs Yousri Belgaroui +124\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I wasn\u2019t high on Belgaroui initially, but he proved me wrong with a dominant performance over\u00a0Bekoev using his reach and striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Malik is violent, powerful, and strong in the clinch. This is\u00a0a classic length vs power matchup. I\u2019ll take Belgaroui at plus money<\/strong> after showing he can beat a\u00a0 similar style.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyle Nelson +118 vs Terrance McKinney -150\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a typical McKinney fight \u2014 all or nothing early. His last seven fights have ended in the first round. If he doesn\u2019t get the finish early, he fades badly. Nelson is durable enough to survive\u00a0that early storm, and if he does, he likely wins. Nelson is the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ignacio Bahamondes -295 vs Tofiq Musayev +220\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t think Musayev is very good at this level. He hasn\u2019t looked impressive in recent fights, is\u00a0low volume at times, and is now 36. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bahamondes is coming off a loss to Fiziev, who exposed\u00a0him with speed and wrestling. Bahamondes should have the striking advantage at range, and\u00a0 Musayev may not be able to exploit his takedown defense. Bahamondes by decision<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chase Hooper -280 vs Lance Gibson Jr +210\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gibson had a split decision in his debut against King Green, but didn\u2019t look impressive. Low\u00a0output, minimal impact on the ground, and unclear strengths. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hooper is excellent on the ground\u00a0but still questionable on the feet. If this goes to the mat, Hooper likely wins by submission. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If it\u00a0stays standing, Gibson could have success. Hard to trust either side \u2014 likely a pass, with the\u00a0fight going the distance as a possibility<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marcin Tybura -104 vs Tyrell Fortune -122\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This line doesn\u2019t make much sense. Fortune has been fighting extremely weak competition recently, including older and out-of-shape opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tybura lost his last fight to a quick blitz\u00a0but had been winning before that. Even at 40, his grinding wrestling style should be effective\u00a0here. Tybura likely controls this fight on the ground<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Casey O’Neill -113 vs Gabriella Fernandes -113\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This should be a close, low-volume fight. Fernandes has a slight edge in power, while O\u2019Neill likely has the better ground game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fernandes is strong and difficult to control, making takedowns less effective. The fight likely goes the distance<\/strong>. Slight lean to Fernandes for having the bigger\u00a0moments, but not worth betting.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bruno Lopes +310 vs Navajo Stirling -440\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The price is steep, but Stirling should win. He\u2019s young, improving, and has solid striking with\u00a0body work and some grappling ability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He is hittable, but the UFC continues to give him\u00a0favorable matchups. Lopes was knocked out badly in his last fight and appears limited at this\u00a0level. Stirling by decision<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adrian Yanez +124 vs Ricky Simon -158\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simon\u2019s best weapon has always been wrestling, but he hasn\u2019t been using it as much recently. If this stays standing, Yanez has the edge with faster and cleaner striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yanez is coming off a\u00a0close loss where an early eye poke likely affected his performance. If Simon doesn\u2019t commit to\u00a0wrestling, Yanez should win a close striking battle<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alexia Thainara -480 vs Bruna Brasil +330\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a straightforward matchup. Thainara has the clinch, takedowns, and ground control to\u00a0dominate. Brasil lacks finishing ability and doesn\u2019t have the tools to win rounds consistently.\u00a0Thainara should control the fight from start to finish. Thainara by decision<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I believe Adesanya is done. He peaked around 2023 and has now lost three straight fights, two by\u00a0finish. His durability, cardio, and explosiveness all look diminished. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pyfer is trending in the\u00a0opposite direction, winning three straight with power, durability, and improved cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This line\u00a0is priced like Adesanya is still in his prime, which he isn\u2019t. Pyfer is one of my favorite picks on\u00a0 the card<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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