{"id":38412,"date":"2026-03-12T14:44:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T18:44:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=38412"},"modified":"2026-03-12T14:46:00","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T18:46:00","slug":"ufc-fight-night-emmett-vs-vallejos-picks-predictions-and-odds-march-14-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/mma\/ufc-fight-night-emmett-vs-vallejos-picks-predictions-and-odds-march-14-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Vallejos Picks, Predictions and Odds March 14, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions<\/strong> come from WagerTalk UFC handicapper Andy Lang<\/a><\/span> for March 14, 2026 with the main event headlined by Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos<\/strong> in a featherweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the Meta APEX in\u00a0Las Vegas,\u00a0NV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos:<\/strong> UFC Fight Night Main Event<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Saturday, March 14<\/th>UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)<\/th><\/tr>
Moneyline:<\/td>Josh Emmett +410 vs Kevin Vallejos -550<\/td><\/tr>
Rounds:<\/td>4.5 (Over -180 \/ Under +140)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Time:<\/td>Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET \/ 7:00pm PT<\/td><\/tr>
Arena:<\/td>Meta APEX in Las Vegas, NV<\/td><\/tr>
TV:<\/td>Paramount+<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Undercard Predictions<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Piera Rodriguez -162 vs Sam Hughes +126\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rodriguez is very strong and her only losses are to Gillian Robertson and a disqualification. Her\u00a0ground game is solid and her striking is good, but her biggest advantage will be pure strength and\u00a0power in close exchanges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hughes is tough and durable, and she can clinch and work some\u00a0grappling, but she looks a bit overmatched physically. This fight should feature plenty of clinch\u00a0work and wrestling. Rodriguez by decision<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elijah Smith -225 vs Suyoung You +170\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smith is still raw, but he grew up in the gym with his father being a fighter and he continues to\u00a0 evolve. He has a solid ground game, showed good cardio a couple fights ago, and his striking\u00a0 keeps improving even if it\u2019s not elite yet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smith will likely keep getting better with experience,\u00a0 but he\u2019s not a top-tier UFC fighter just yet. You has looked basic and fairly low-output so far.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His fights tend to go the distance, his takedown attempts are often just feints, and he lacks\u00a0aggression. Smith should be able to control the fight over three rounds<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bia Mesquita -590 vs Montserrat Rendon +390\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This matchup looks straightforward. Rendon is 7-1 but the level of competition has been\u00a0extremely weak. Her striking doesn\u2019t threaten opponents and she has shown little finishing\u00a0ability with every fight going to decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mesquita is physically strong with excellent takedowns\u00a0and an elite ground game. She should get Rendon to the mat and finish with either submission or\u00a0ground-and-pound. Mesquita by finish<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hecher Sosa -245 vs Luan Lacerda +186\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sosa trains with Topuria and has a strong grappling base. He\u2019s experienced, disciplined, and\u00a0appears to have excellent fight IQ and preparation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lacerda is coming off a win over Oliveira,\u00a0but Oliveira isn\u2019t a strong opponent and Lacerda was reversed several times during that fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He lost his two fights prior to that, and while many of his wins come by submission, Sosa has good\u00a0 defensive grappling. Sosa by decision<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manoel Sousa -280 v Bolaji Oki +210 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sousa is another Contender Series winner who should find success in the UFC. His striking is\u00a0 sharp and his cardio is excellent, though his ground game can be an issue when opponents control him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oki has been disappointing so far with two close wins against weaker opponents\u00a0 and two losses by finish. He constantly makes mistakes and exhausted himself chasing a finish in\u00a0his last fight before getting stopped. I don\u2019t think he can exploit Sousa\u2019s weaknesses. Sousa likely wins by finish<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myktybek Orolbai -290 vs Chris Curtis +215\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m out on Chris Curtis at this point. His last two wins were split decisions and he\u2019s lost three of\u00a0his last five fights along with a no contest against Imavov in a fight he was losing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His ground game is limited and his striking doesn\u2019t seem to carry knockout power anymore. Orolbai is a\u00a0 powerful brawler who can finish fights in multiple ways. He absorbs strikes to deliver bigger\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ones and I expect him to walk through Curtis\u2019s shots and land the harder blows. Curtis has taken\u00a0a lot of damage across 44 professional fights, so a knockout wouldn\u2019t be surprising. Orolbai is\u00a0the pick<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brad Tavares -140 vs Eryk Anders +110\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neither fighter is particularly exciting at this stage of their careers. Both are low-volume strikers,\u00a0lacking explosion, and both are coming off knockout losses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I expect a slow fight with Tavares circling on the outside while Anders pressures forward and tries to initiate clinch exchanges.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anders tends to tire as the fight progresses. The best play will likely be Tavares by decision at plus money when props open<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charles Johnson -215 vs Bruno Silva +164\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Johnson is coming off a knockout loss in January and is turning around quickly, which makes me\u00a0 hesitant to back him as a favorite. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He was also absorbing damage before scoring the flash KO\u00a0over Kavanagh. Silva\u2019s recent losses came against a champion and a top contender, and he still\u00a0 has solid striking if he manages his cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Johnson has been open defensively in his last two fights. The quick turnaround concerns me, so I\u2019ll take Silva and even consider the KO prop<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vitor Petrino -230 vs Steven Asplund +176\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Petrino has looked good since moving up to heavyweight, showing strong striking and wrestling.\u00a0 His cardio has looked questionable at times but he still managed a third-round knockout in his\u00a0last fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asplund is a powerful striker who lands damaging shots, though this is his toughest\u00a0opponent yet and he\u2019s fairly hittable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both fighters are likely to absorb big strikes. The under 1.5\u00a0 rounds at plus money is interesting, but the better play might be under 2.5 rounds later in the\u00a0week<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marwan Rahiki -265 vs Harry Hardwick +200\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rahiki is tall and flashy with spinning attacks but has terrible defensive striking and gets hit\u00a0frequently. His fights rarely last long because of his aggressive style. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hardwick lost his UFC\u00a0debut on short notice due largely to calf kicks, but Rahiki doesn\u2019t use that weapon much.\u00a0 Hardwick has solid power and plenty of experience at age 31. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This fight likely ends early and the\u00a0under is attractive, but I\u2019ll side with the underdog. Rahiki makes too many mistakes and Hardwick should capitalize<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jose Delgado -330 vs Andre Fili +240\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Delgado has serious power but showed some weaknesses after failing to finish Nathaniel Wood early in their fight. Wood recovered and won the final two rounds for the decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Delgado\u00a0didn\u2019t fade badly but his defense slipped as the fight progressed. Fili hasn\u2019t looked impressive\u00a0 recently, with three of his last four wins being razor-thin split decisions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His striking lacks impact and he doesn\u2019t have the wrestling to control Delgado. Fili\u2019s mistakes should eventually\u00a0cost him here. Delgado by KO or decision<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oumar Sy -230 vs Ion Cutelaba +176\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cutelaba is usually strongest on the ground where he hunts submissions, but Sy is extremely strong in the clinch and in wrestling exchanges. In his last fight, Cutelaba showed more striking\u00a0than usual and had success landing kicks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sy is powerful on the ground but Cutelaba has the\u00a0ability to reverse positions and threaten submissions. With multiple paths to victory, Cutelaba looks like the value side<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gillian Robertson -200 vs Amanda Lemos +154\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robertson\u2019s wrestling has evolved from good to elite and she\u2019s currently on a four-fight winning\u00a0streak. Lemos is a dangerous striker and fairly strong defensively in the clinch, but she struggled\u00a0badly against Tatiana Suarez who controlled her easily for long stretches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robertson has the\u00a0same type of grappling advantage but with far better cardio. Lemos has lost two straight to strong\u00a0wrestlers. Robertson should make it five wins in a row<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Emmett is 1-4 in his last five fights but those losses came against elite competition. Vallejos is\u00a0 very good, though not quite elite yet. His youth, speed, and power should create problems for\u00a0Emmett. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vallejos lost the first round to Giga before scoring a knockout, showing he can explode late with power that older fighters struggle to react to. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emmett doesn\u2019t offer much grappling and\u00a0 his knockout power hasn\u2019t shown up lately with only one KO in his last eight fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main\u00a0concern is this being scheduled for five rounds. If Vallejos doesn\u2019t get an early finish, his stamina\u00a0could be tested. Because of that, I prefer the over 3.5 rounds<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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