UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang<\/a> <\/span>gives his UFC 323 picks and predictions for December 6<\/strong> with the main event headlined by Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan<\/strong> in a bantamweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena,\u00a0Las Vegas,\u00a0NV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n Mairon Santos -210 vs Muhammad Naimov +162\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n I always think Naimov is underrated, and I think he is here as well. Naimov can wrestle, clinch,\u00a0 and eat up long stretches of control time on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Santos prefers to strike, but he\u2019s very\u00a0low volume and barely got by Yusuff last fight \u2014 and Yusuff has now lost three straight and\u00a0looked terrible. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The play is the underdog as Santos doesn\u2019t push pace, doesn\u2019t create big\u00a0 moments, and Naimov should be better with the wrestling.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iwo Barnaniewski -178 vs Ibo Aslan +138\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Iwo hits like a truck and has never been out of the first round, so don\u2019t blink. He knocked out Aly\u00a0 on Contender Series in 20 seconds as an underdog \u2014 true one-shot KO power. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Aslan has lost\u00a0two straight and looked awful last fight, showing no aggression, no volume, and no urgency. He\u00a0can\u2019t fight like that here. Iwo will catch him and knock him out. Iwo by KO is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Jalin Turner -265 vs Edson Barboza +200\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n No clue what to make of Turner right now. He has lost four of five and was so frustrated after his\u00a0last loss that he retired in March. <\/p>\n\n\n\n He looks lethargic and unfocused at times despite having elite\u00a0physical tools. Barboza is 39 years old with a ton of mileage and looked completely washed\u00a0against Drakkar Klose \u2014 old, slow, and flat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Betting against aging fighters who look like they\u2019ve\u00a0hit a wall has been money recently. Turner is the pick<\/strong>, but it\u2019s a scary fight to trust financially.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Brunno Ferreira -104 vs Marvin Vettori -120\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Betting against Vettori has been a cash cow \u2014 he\u2019s lost three in a row and looks old and slow.\u00a0His head movement is gone, his power is gone, and he\u2019s easy to hit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Brunno Ferreira isn\u2019t elite,\u00a0but he\u2019s won four of five, has real KO power, and has shown submission ability with back-to back armbar wins. This is a fade of Vettori at this stage<\/strong>. He\u2019s well past his prime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chris Duncan -194 vs Terrance McKinney +150\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Duncan keeps performing well in the UFC with a 5\u20131 record and has shown durability, cardio,\u00a0and finishing ability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n McKinney must finish early \u2014 every UFC win he has is a first-round finish,\u00a0and he gasses out badly if it goes past that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Duncan is tough enough to weather the early storm\u00a0and then finish McKinney late<\/strong> in round one or early in round two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Grant Dawson -235 vs Manuel Torres +180\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Torres has big KO power and leaves his chin exposed, which won\u2019t matter much because Grant Dawson is an elite wrestler and won\u2019t let this fight stay standing for long. <\/p>\n\n\n\n His only loss was a\u00a0quick KO in 30 seconds \u2014 he won\u2019t give Torres that chance. Once it hits the mat, Dawson gets\u00a0the body triangle, controls, and either submits or wins rounds easily. Dawson has been a cash\u00a0cow<\/strong>, and this is another strong matchup for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fares Ziam -160 vs Nazim Sadykhov +124\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Ziam has really improved \u2014 cleaner striking, a developing ground game, and more confidence.\u00a0But this is a war on the feet waiting to happen. Sadykhov is a vicious striker with big volume and\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n big power. He can win with one-shot KO power or by overwhelming opponents with\u00a0 combinations. I think he\u2019ll be too much for Ziam over three rounds. I\u2019ll take the underdog<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Mansur Absul Malik -950 vs Antonio Trocoli +500\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Trocoli stinks \u2014 finished in both UFC fights, and extremely limited everywhere. This is a gift\u00a0matchup for Malik. <\/p>\n\n\n\n He beat Brundage and then had it overturned due to a weird back-of-the-head strike, but Malik is a big-time striker and finisher. He\u2019ll knock out Trocoli quickly<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Maycee Barber -172 vs Karine Silva +134\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tons of question marks around Barber. She\u2019s reportedly had seizures and has pulled out of her\u00a0 last two fights. When healthy, she\u2019s a strong striker, good in the clinch, and a legit fighter. Silva\u00a0hasn\u2019t looked great lately, going 1\u20131 with mediocre performances. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Silva\u2019s best path is on the\u00a0 ground, but her wrestling isn\u2019t great. Barber likely has more power, but with her health\u00a0unknown, this is a pass fight for betting<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tatsuro Taira -122 vs Brandon Moreno -104\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Great fight and extremely close. Taira has an excellent ground game and improving striking.\u00a0 Moreno is a great striker with elite defense, and his losses only come to the best in the division.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Taira will struggle in a pure striking match, so he needs takedowns and top control to win. Fight\u00a0 to go the distance is the best play<\/strong>. As for a side, it\u2019s too close to pick confidently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Jan Blachowicz -120 vs Bogdon Guskov -106\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Jan is older now, low volume, still has good leg kicks, but his wrestling has fallen off. Guskov\u00a0hits hard and is faster on the feet, and Jan is past his prime. Guskov is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Payton Talbott -265 vs Henry Cejudo +200\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Cejudo didn\u2019t wrestle in his last fight, which was shocking \u2014 he just swung wildly, and that\u00a0 won\u2019t work against Talbott, who has a big reach and height advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Talbott looked bad two\u00a0fights ago and his defensive wrestling is questionable, but can 38-year-old Cejudo dominate with\u00a0wrestling over multiple rounds anymore? I\u2019m leaning no. Talbott outworks him and wins a\u00a0decision<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Alexandre Pantoja -245 vs Josh Van +186\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Van\u2019s rise has been incredible \u2014 five straight wins over legit opponents. Striking is sharp, and his takedown defense has looked great. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But Pantoja is the best grappler in the division and still\u00a0 has gas left even at 35. UFC has no one else for him \u2014 he\u2019s beating everyone. Pantoja should\u00a0get takedowns, control Van, maybe submit him, and avoid extended striking exchanges. Pantoja\u00a0for the win<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s Merab or nothing until he finally shows signs of slowing down. His nonstop pressure, cardio,\u00a0pace, and relentless takedowns have broken everyone \u2014 and Yan isn\u2019t the one to solve him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Yan needs space and rhythm to land clean shots, and Merab gives opponents none of that. Expect\u00a0 constant movement, endless takedown attempts, and Yan stuck defending instead of attacking.\u00a0Merab wins in dominant fashion<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Are you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! Set up alerts so that you never miss an episode of your favorite shows. Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on First Pitch. From betting tips to free picks, WagerTalk TV<\/a> is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\nMerab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan:<\/strong> UFC 323 Main Event<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Saturday, December 6<\/th> UFC 323 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)<\/th><\/tr> Moneyline:<\/td> Merab Dvalishvili -500 vs Petr Yan +340<\/td><\/tr> Rounds:<\/td> 4.5 Rounds (Over -410 \/ Under +280)<\/td><\/tr> Fight Time:<\/td> Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET \/ 7:00pm PT<\/td><\/tr> Arena:<\/td> T-Mobile Arena in\u00a0Las Vegas,\u00a0NV<\/td><\/tr> TV:<\/td> PPV<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n UFC 323 Predictions: Undercard<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
UFC 323 Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili -500 vs Petr Yan +340<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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