College football takes center stage on Thursday night with two nationally televised games in Week 11. While the NFL has its own primetime matchup, fans of the college gridiron will get double the action with a pair of Group of Five clashes from the American Athletic Conference and the Sun Belt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Both games kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET \u2014\u00a0UTSA vs South Florida<\/strong>\u00a0on ESPN, and\u00a0Georgia Southern vs Appalachian State<\/strong>\u00a0on ESPN2, and this breakdown from WagerTalk<\/a> gives bettors insight into where the real value may lie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kickoff<\/strong>: 7:30PM ET on ESPN<\/p>\n\n\n\n The feature game of the night belongs to the\u00a0South Florida Bulls<\/strong>, who are looking to bounce back after a tough 34\u201331 loss to Memphis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite the setback, South Florida remains one of the most talented teams in the Group of Five ranks, with earlier signature wins including a 34\u20137 upset over Boise State and a dramatic win over Florida as an 18-point underdog early in the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After climbing into the national rankings earlier this fall, the Bulls can\u2019t afford another slip-up if they hope to remain in the postseason conversation. They enter this matchup favored by around 13.5 points<\/strong>, though some sportsbooks list the line between 12 and 14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to analysis, the\u00a0key number of 14<\/strong>\u00a0could play a small role \u2014 landing exactly on that margin occurs only about 3\u20134% of the time. He prefers South Florida at\u00a0-13.5 or better<\/strong>, noting that the Bulls have been the more balanced team on both sides of the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f \u2013\u00a0South Florida -13.5 or less<\/strong>\u00a0(side) Statistically, South Florida\u2019s defense has allowed just 5.1 yards per play<\/strong>, compared to UTSA\u2019s 6.1. That efficiency, combined with their ability to score both through the air and on the ground, supports a potential double-digit victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Over\/Under total<\/strong> sits between 67 and 67.5<\/strong>, slightly lower than its opening mark of 68.5. While it\u2019s a lofty number, Merrill leans toward the Over<\/strong> \u2014 pointing out that South Florida\u2019s defense has given up points to teams capable of moving the ball, including 49 to Miami, 36 to North Texas, and 34 to Memphis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n UTSA could find success on the ground, averaging nearly 5.5 yards per carry<\/strong>, but their passing attack has been inconsistent. That combination points to an up-tempo, high-scoring contest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kickoff<\/strong>: 7:30PM ET on ESPN2<\/p>\n\n\n\n The second Thursday matchup shifts to the Sun Belt Conference, where two former FCS powerhouses \u2014\u00a0Georgia Southern<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Appalachian State<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 square off in Boone, North Carolina. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Both programs were once national championship contenders at the 1-AA level, but this season has been far less glamorous. Each sits at\u00a01\u20133 in conference play<\/strong>, looking to salvage momentum down the stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Appalachian State opened as a\u00a06-point favorite<\/strong>, though several sportsbooks have dropped to 5.5 or even 5. <\/p>\n\n\n\n This number is significant with\u00a0six becoming a more common key number<\/strong> in both college and NFL football due to two-point conversion trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When comparing the two teams statistically,\u00a0Georgia Southern<\/strong>\u00a0holds a slight offensive edge, averaging\u00a05.5 yards per play<\/strong>\u00a0against opponents that allow the same. <\/p>\n\n\n\n App State sits at\u00a05.6 yards per play<\/strong>\u00a0against weaker defenses that surrender 5.9 on average. However, the Mountaineers have the defensive edge \u2014 and that could be the difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f \u2013\u00a0Georgia Southern +6 (value on the key number)<\/strong> Georgia Southern\u2019s defense ranks among the bottom six nationally<\/strong>, allowing nearly six yards per carry<\/strong> and 35 points per game<\/strong>. They\u2019ve been unable to slow down opponents all season, and Merrill ranks their overall defense around 131st out of 136<\/strong> FBS programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Still, App State hasn\u2019t been dominant offensively, averaging just 4.1 yards per rush<\/strong> against teams allowing 4.7. They\u2019ve been below average on the ground in five of their last six games, which limits their ability to exploit Georgia Southern\u2019s weak front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The total sits at 61.5<\/strong>, and Merrill notes there\u2019s \u201cteeny bit of value\u201d on the Over<\/strong>. Georgia Southern\u2019s games have averaged about 10 points higher<\/strong> than their opponents\u2019 norms, while App State games have hovered right around expectation. That math suggests the true total should be closer to 64.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Subscribe to the country’s longest-running sports betting newsletter for less than $10 per week. The Football GoldSheet will be your betting concierge through the 2025-26 football season, offering weekly NFL and NCAAF game previews, stat logs and much more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n WagerTalk\u2019s live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the college football Week 8 games, including this Florida State vs Stanford contest. Find free college football picks<\/a> from season win total bets through National Championship futures on our free picks pages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n **************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" College football takes center stage on Thursday night with two nationally televised games in Week 11. While the NFL has its own primetime matchup, fans of the college gridiron will get double the action with a pair of Group of Five clashes from the American Athletic Conference and the Sun Belt. Both games kick off […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32268,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[8,15468,15469,15471,15358,11575,12041,15470],"class_list":["post-37736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football","tag-college-football","tag-college-football-thursday-picks","tag-college-football-thursday-predictions","tag-georgia-southern-vs-app-state","tag-thursday-college-football","tag-thursday-college-football-picks","tag-thursday-college-football-predictions","tag-utsa-vs-south-florida"],"basic_html":"\n College football takes center stage on Thursday night with two nationally televised games in Week 11. While the NFL has its own primetime matchup, fans of the college gridiron will get double the action with a pair of Group of Five clashes from the American Athletic Conference and the Sun Belt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Both games kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET \u2014\u00a0UTSA vs South Florida<\/strong>\u00a0on ESPN, and\u00a0Georgia Southern vs Appalachian State<\/strong>\u00a0on ESPN2, and this breakdown from WagerTalk<\/a> gives bettors insight into where the real value may lie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Kickoff<\/strong>: 7:30PM ET on ESPN<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n The feature game of the night belongs to the\u00a0South Florida Bulls<\/strong>, who are looking to bounce back after a tough 34\u201331 loss to Memphis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Despite the setback, South Florida remains one of the most talented teams in the Group of Five ranks, with earlier signature wins including a 34\u20137 upset over Boise State and a dramatic win over Florida as an 18-point underdog early in the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n After climbing into the national rankings earlier this fall, the Bulls can\u2019t afford another slip-up if they hope to remain in the postseason conversation. They enter this matchup favored by around 13.5 points<\/strong>, though some sportsbooks list the line between 12 and 14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n According to analysis, the\u00a0key number of 14<\/strong>\u00a0could play a small role \u2014 landing exactly on that margin occurs only about 3\u20134% of the time. He prefers South Florida at\u00a0-13.5 or better<\/strong>, noting that the Bulls have been the more balanced team on both sides of the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n \u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f \u2013\u00a0South Florida -13.5 or less<\/strong>\u00a0(side) Statistically, South Florida\u2019s defense has allowed just 5.1 yards per play<\/strong>, compared to UTSA\u2019s 6.1. That efficiency, combined with their ability to score both through the air and on the ground, supports a potential double-digit victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n The Over\/Under total<\/strong> sits between 67 and 67.5<\/strong>, slightly lower than its opening mark of 68.5. While it\u2019s a lofty number, Merrill leans toward the Over<\/strong> \u2014 pointing out that South Florida\u2019s defense has given up points to teams capable of moving the ball, including 49 to Miami, 36 to North Texas, and 34 to Memphis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n UTSA could find success on the ground, averaging nearly 5.5 yards per carry<\/strong>, but their passing attack has been inconsistent. That combination points to an up-tempo, high-scoring contest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Kickoff<\/strong>: 7:30PM ET on ESPN2<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n The second Thursday matchup shifts to the Sun Belt Conference, where two former FCS powerhouses \u2014\u00a0Georgia Southern<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Appalachian State<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 square off in Boone, North Carolina. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Both programs were once national championship contenders at the 1-AA level, but this season has been far less glamorous. Each sits at\u00a01\u20133 in conference play<\/strong>, looking to salvage momentum down the stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Appalachian State opened as a\u00a06-point favorite<\/strong>, though several sportsbooks have dropped to 5.5 or even 5. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n This number is significant with\u00a0six becoming a more common key number<\/strong> in both college and NFL football due to two-point conversion trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n When comparing the two teams statistically,\u00a0Georgia Southern<\/strong>\u00a0holds a slight offensive edge, averaging\u00a05.5 yards per play<\/strong>\u00a0against opponents that allow the same. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n App State sits at\u00a05.6 yards per play<\/strong>\u00a0against weaker defenses that surrender 5.9 on average. However, the Mountaineers have the defensive edge \u2014 and that could be the difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n \u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f \u2013\u00a0Georgia Southern +6 (value on the key number)<\/strong> Georgia Southern\u2019s defense ranks among the bottom six nationally<\/strong>, allowing nearly six yards per carry<\/strong> and 35 points per game<\/strong>. They\u2019ve been unable to slow down opponents all season, and Merrill ranks their overall defense around 131st out of 136<\/strong> FBS programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Still, App State hasn\u2019t been dominant offensively, averaging just 4.1 yards per rush<\/strong> against teams allowing 4.7. They\u2019ve been below average on the ground in five of their last six games, which limits their ability to exploit Georgia Southern\u2019s weak front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n The total sits at 61.5<\/strong>, and Merrill notes there\u2019s \u201cteeny bit of value\u201d on the Over<\/strong>. Georgia Southern\u2019s games have averaged about 10 points higher<\/strong> than their opponents\u2019 norms, while App State games have hovered right around expectation. That math suggests the true total should be closer to 64.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Subscribe to the country's longest-running sports betting newsletter for less than $10 per week. The Football GoldSheet will be your betting concierge through the 2025-26 football season, offering weekly NFL and NCAAF game previews, stat logs and much more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n WagerTalk\u2019s live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the college football Week 8 games, including this Florida State vs Stanford contest. Find free college football picks<\/a> from season win total bets through National Championship futures on our free picks pages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n **************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37736"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37736\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37737,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37736\/revisions\/37737"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32268"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}UTSA Roadrunners vs South Florida Bulls<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
UTSA vs South Florida Predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f \u2013\u00a0Team total Over 41.5 for South Florida<\/strong>
\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f \u2013\u00a0Game total Over 67 (lean only)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nGeorgia Southern Eagles vs Appalachian State Mountaineers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Georgia Southern vs App State Predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f \u2013\u00a0Over 61.5 (slight lean)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n2025 Football GoldSheet Newsletter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n
UTSA Roadrunners vs South Florida Bulls<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UTSA vs South Florida Predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f \u2013\u00a0Team total Over 41.5 for South Florida<\/strong>
\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f \u2013\u00a0Game total Over 67 (lean only)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGeorgia Southern Eagles vs Appalachian State Mountaineers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Georgia Southern vs App State Predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f \u2013\u00a0Over 61.5 (slight lean)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n2025 Football GoldSheet Newsletter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n