{"id":37262,"date":"2025-09-25T08:25:28","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T12:25:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=37262"},"modified":"2025-09-25T08:25:29","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T12:25:29","slug":"ufc-fight-night-ulberg-vs-reyes-predictions-picks-and-betting-odds-september-27-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/mma\/ufc-fight-night-ulberg-vs-reyes-predictions-picks-and-betting-odds-september-27-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds September 27, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang<\/a> <\/span>gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for <\/strong>September 27, 2025 with the main event headlined by Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes<\/strong> in a light heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from RAC Arena (AUS) in Perth, Australia!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes:<\/strong> UFC Fight Night Main Event<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Saturday, September 27<\/th>UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)<\/th><\/tr>
Moneyline:<\/td>Carlos Ulberg -250 vs Dominick Reyes +200<\/td><\/tr>
Rounds:<\/td>2.5 (Over +120 \/ Under -155)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Time:<\/td>Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET \/ 7:00pm PT<\/td><\/tr>
Arena:<\/td>RAC Arena (AUS) in Perth, Australia<\/td><\/tr>
TV:<\/td>ESPN+<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Predictions<\/span>: Undercard<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jonathan Micallef -136 vs Oban Elliott +106 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jonathan Micallef\u2019s submission game is his biggest weapon, though his striking remains a  weakness and his wrestling is serviceable but not elite. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oban Elliott has solid overall skills and the better stand-up, but he tends to overthink in exchanges and scrambles, which leaves him a step behind. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That hesitation could open the door for Micallef to secure key takedowns and work toward his grappling advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elliott\u2019s striking should keep things competitive, but the edge  lies with Micallef\u2019s ability to dictate with his ground game. Micallef is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Andre Petroski -146 vs Cam Rowston +110 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cam Rowston enters this fight off a recent Contender Series win where he showed noticeable improvement, particularly in his striking and ability to mix in a takedown. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has good length with his punches and kicks, but he\u2019s still developing as a fighter. Andre Petroski brings the edge in experience and grappling, though his striking is limited and his cardio has been questionable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expect him to lean heavily on his wrestling, pressing Rowston against the fence and grinding out control time on the mat. It may not be flashy, but Petroski\u2019s path to victory is clear, and a decision win is the most likely outcome<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brando Pericic -186 vs Elisha Ellison +144 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a tough fight to get a confident read on. Brando Pericic has faced extremely weak competition, with his last two opponents having no professional experience. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He\u2019s shown raw power as a striker but lacks technical polish. Elisha Ellison is in a very similar spot \u2014 untested against quality opponents and reliant on knockouts against overmatched competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What seems certain is that this fight won\u2019t go the distance<\/strong>, but in terms of a side, it\u2019s a complete toss up. This is a clear pass from a betting perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rolando Bedoya -113 vs Jamie Mullarkey -113 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a low-level matchup where neither fighter is particularly reliable, but Mullarkey looks especially concerning at this stage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has no real upside, lacking both knockout power and strong wrestling, and he\u2019s been finished in the first round of his last two fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bedoya, while  riding a three-fight skid himself, at least offers some positives with quicker movement, effective leg kicks, and better durability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mullarkey appears to be at the end of his UFC run, while Bedoya still has tools to compete at this level. Bedoya is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michele Montague -236 vs Luana Carolina +176 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Luana Carolina holds the advantage in striking, but it may not come into play here. Michele Montague is a relentless wrestler with dominant takedowns, heavy ground-and-pound, and dangerous submissions. Carolina\u2019s best chance is to survive the early grappling exchanges, drag the fight out, and test Montague\u2019s gas tank on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem is that Montague is so efficient at closing distance and getting fights to the mat that it\u2019s hard to see Carolina keeping her standing for long. Montague\u2019s wrestling and top control should carry her to a win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Josias Musasa -162 vs Colby Thicknesse +124<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Colby Thicknesse looked out of his depth in his UFC debut, where he was thoroughly outstruck, taken down in the third round, and failed to generate any real offense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prior to that, he had only faced low-level competition, and the step up in class exposed his limitations. Josias Musasa is still a bit raw, but he\u2019s explosive, dangerous in the clinch, and brings athleticism and power to his striking, even if it can get wild at times. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While both fighters need development, Musasa clearly has the higher upside. I\u2019ll side with the more promising prospect \u2014 Musasa is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Navajo Stirling -245 vs Rodolfo Bellato +186 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Navajo Stirling has started his UFC career with wins, but the level of competition has been very low, and there are still major question marks about his game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He\u2019s physically strong, but his striking is slow, his clinch work and control are lacking, and it feels like he\u2019s destined to struggle once he faces a decent opponent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rodolfo Bellato may be that test. While he has defensive flaws  and leaves his chin open at times, he\u2019s a solid striker who won\u2019t allow Stirling to dictate in the clinch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stirling has the athletic tools to develop, but he\u2019s not there yet. Bellato looks like a very live underdog<\/strong> and is the play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alexia Thainara -250 vs Loma Lookboonmee +190 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alexia Thainara made an impressive UFC debut, taking down Molly McCann and finishing her quickly by submission, though it\u2019s worth noting McCann has clearly been on the decline.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thainara will look to repeat that formula here, using her grappling to drag Loma Lookboonmee to the mat where she can control and hunt for a finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loma, however, is a tricky striker who  prefers to stay at range, land her kicks, and move in and out of danger. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

She has the tools to  frustrate opponents if she can keep the fight standing. While Thainara is the rightful favorite, the line feels wide, as Loma is unlikely to fold easily<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom Nolan -162 vs Charlie Campbell +126\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom Nolan has put together three straight wins, but they haven\u2019t been overly convincing. Once\u00a0known as a wild, kill-or-be-killed fighter, he\u2019s become more patient and defensively sound,\u00a0though that shift has come at the cost of his knockout threat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charlie Campbell brings solid\u00a0striking, toughness, and even showed competency on the ground in his last fight against Peek.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given Nolan\u2019s recent form, it\u2019s hard to justify him as the favorite in this matchup. Campbell\u00a0looks like the value side<\/strong>, and he\u2019s the pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jack Jenkins -330 vs Ramon Taveras +240\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jack Jenkins is a smart, well-rounded fighter with strong leg kicks, sharp striking, and excellent fight IQ. He\u2019s coming off a loss to a high-level opponent, but this matchup plays directly into his\u00a0strengths. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ramon Taveras is a boxer who was outclassed by UFC veteran Davey Grant in his last\u00a0fight, and his striking defense has consistently struggled when facing quality competition.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jenkins\u2019 leg kicks should be a major weapon early, chipping away at Taveras\u2019 movement and\u00a0 slowing him down as the fight progresses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With his striking advantages and superior game\u00a0planning, Jenkins is in a great spot to get the win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jake Matthews -360 vs Neil Magny +285\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jake Matthews comes in on a three-fight winning streak and has looked much cleaner of late, but\u00a0his career has often been marked by inconsistency and costly mistakes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If he slips here, Neil\u00a0Magny is exactly the type of veteran who can capitalize, using his experience and fight IQ to turn\u00a0 things around. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Magny\u2019s recent losses have come against championship-level contenders, and\u00a0Matthews isn\u2019t quite in that class. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matthews should have the wrestling edge, but Magny\u2019s length,\u00a0savvy, and ability to stay fresher late make this a tricky matchup. At these odds, Matthews is\u00a0impossible to trust, and Magny to win a close decision is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Justin Tafa -125 vs Louis Sutherland +105\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Justin Tafa looks like he\u2019s on the decline, dropping two straight fights and showing little\u00a0motivation to improve as he makes money outside the UFC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His style is limited \u2014 he can\u2019t\u00a0 wrestle and generally fights in a kill-or-be-killed manner. Louis Sutherland enters for his UFC\u00a0debut with nothing to lose, and while known primarily as a power striker, he\u2019s also shown flashes\u00a0 of wrestling and ground-and-pound. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That added dimension could be key against a fighter like\u00a0Tafa who doesn\u2019t have answers on the mat. Anytime there\u2019s an opportunity to fade the Tafa\u00a0brothers, it\u2019s worth considering, and here Sutherland is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jimmy Crute -200 vs Ivan Erslan +154\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This looks like a setup fight for Jimmy Crute in front of his home crowd. After briefly retiring,\u00a0Crute has returned with renewed energy and even scored a first-round win in his last outing.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While his cardio can still be a question mark, he\u2019s a strong wrestler, a capable striker, and has the\u00a0 durability to push through tough spots. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ivan Erslan, meanwhile, has struggled at this level, losing\u00a0 both of his UFC bouts while offering little striking threat and often fighting off his back foot.\u00a0With the advantages across the board, Crute should dominate this matchup<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dominick Reyes has returned from a long layoff with violence, scoring three straight knockouts,\u00a0but the level of opposition matters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His recent wins came against older fighters or those willing to\u00a0take big risks, and Carlos Ulberg is neither. Ulberg has been one of the most reliable fighters to\u00a0 back over the past few years, combining sharp striking with improved patience and fight IQ in\u00a0his last two outings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Training alongside some of the best in the world, he\u2019s continued to evolve\u00a0and refine his game. As long as he avoids an early knockout shot from Reyes, Ulberg should put\u00a0on a masterclass and get the win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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