Alice Pereira -184 vs Montserrat Rendon +142\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAlice Pereira, the sister of UFC champion Alex Pereira, makes her debut here. She has solid\u00a0striking when she connects, but she\u2019s slow on the feet and hasn\u2019t faced anyone even close to\u00a0UFC caliber yet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Montserrat Rendon isn\u2019t a world-beater either, but she has faced stronger\u00a0competition, and her ground game is her best path to victory.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While Pereira has shown some ability on the ground as well, it\u2019s unclear whether Rendon has the\u00a0strength to consistently hold her down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This matchup feels very unpredictable, and at these odds,\u00a0 it\u2019s a dog or pass <\/em>situation. There\u2019s a chance Pereira is in the UFC more because of her name\u00a0than her skills at this point, which makes Rendon a live underdog if she can impose her control<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAlessandro Costa -480 vs Alden Coria +330\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAlessandro Costa comes in as a heavy favorite, and for good reason. He\u2019s proven to be a strong,\u00a0 dangerous fighter with power in his hands, strength in the clinch, and improving leg kicks that set\u00a0up finishes, like his KO over Borjas in his last fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Costa\u2019s only UFC losses came to Steve\u00a0 Erceg, a legit title contender, and to Amir Albazi, which was on short notice for his debut.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Alden Coria makes his UFC debut after fighting in Fury FC, where he showed he can hit hard,\u00a0but he hasn\u2019t faced anyone remotely close to Costa\u2019s level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Without the experience against elite\u00a0competition, it\u2019s tough to see Coria landing the kind of big shot he would need to win. Costa\u2019s\u00a0strength, versatility, and proven track record make him the clear pick<\/strong> here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGet $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC Fight Night & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Zach Reese -260 vs Sedriques Dumas +196\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThere\u2019s just no world where you can confidently back Sedriques Dumas here. He consistently\u00a0 makes bad decisions both in and out of the Octagon, having recently been arrested, and his\u00a0 fighting skills don\u2019t inspire much confidence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking is weak, and while he prefers to take\u00a0 the fight to the ground, his wrestling isn\u2019t strong enough to reliably get it there.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Zach Reese, on the other hand, comes in with legitimate weapons. He has big power in his\u00a0 hands, dangerous submissions, and although durability has been a concern in the past, he proved\u00a0something in his last fight by going the full three rounds for the first time in his career. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His cardio\u00a0wasn\u2019t perfect, but this matchup doesn\u2019t look like it will require a long gas tank. Reese should be\u00a0able to impose his game early<\/strong>, and the most likely outcome is him finding a knockout<\/strong> finish before this one goes deep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLuis Gurule -225 vs Jesus Aguilar +172\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJesus Aguilar continues to be underrated by the oddsmakers, despite proving repeatedly that he\u00a0 has the toughness and relentlessness to compete with bigger, stronger opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While he may\u00a0be undersized, Aguilar has a well-rounded ground game, fast hands on the feet, and the kind of\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
pressure that makes opponents uncomfortable. His striking isn\u2019t the most powerful, but he mixes it up well and tends to find success in scrappy exchanges.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Luis Gurule, meanwhile, is a strong fighter who likes to work inside the clinch but is also\u00a0capable of striking from range. The problem is that he can be low volume and has shown cardio\u00a0 issues. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In his last fight, he slowed badly in the second round, his striking defense fell apart, and\u00a0he ended up getting knocked out.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That plays directly into Aguilar\u2019s strengths. If Gurule can\u2019t put him away early, Aguilar\u2019s\u00a0pressure and pace should wear him down, leaving the later rounds open for Aguilar to outwork\u00a0 him. In what could be a close fight, Aguilar looks like the live underdog<\/strong> to edge out a decision as\u00a0Gurule\u2019s gas tank fades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTatiana Suarez -460 vs Amanda Lemos +350\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThe odds on this fight feel far too wide. Tatiana Suarez is a phenomenal wrestler, but injuries and\u00a0 age have clearly taken some of her explosiveness away. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While she can still dominate when she\u00a0 gets on top, she isn\u2019t the same relentless grappler she was earlier in her career. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Amanda Lemos,\u00a0meanwhile, is no pushover on the ground\u2014she\u2019s not as polished as Suarez, but she\u2019s competent\u00a0enough to hang and work her way out of bad spots.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Where Lemos really shines is on the feet. She\u2019s the far superior striker, with the ability to land\u00a0 heavy shots and change the momentum of a fight quickly. If Suarez gets her wrestling going\u00a0 early, she\u2019ll likely control the fight and win comfortably. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
But at a price of -460, it\u2019s far too risky\u00a0to pay for a result that depends entirely on Suarez being able to consistently get takedowns and\u00a0stay safe.\u00a0At these odds, it\u2019s dog or pass<\/strong>. Lemos is the value side, or you stay away entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nClaudio Puelles -120 vs Joaquim Silva +100\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nClaudio Puelles has one path to victory, and that\u2019s getting the fight to the ground. He wants no\u00a0part of striking exchanges, instead relying heavily on his submission game and ground control.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While it\u2019s been effective at times\u2014earning him a 13-3 record\u2014his lack of striking has caught up\u00a0with him, leading to two straight losses. On the feet, he\u2019s essentially a sitting duck.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Joaquim Silva isn\u2019t a world-beater, but he brings a more well-rounded skill set. He\u2019s proven he\u00a0can handle wrestlers before with a win over Clay Guida, and he\u2019s effective in the clinch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Silva\u00a0can keep this fight standing by stuffing takedowns, his striking should give him a clear edge over\u00a0Puelles<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis matchup has the potential to be slow and uneventful, with Puelles constantly chasing\u00a0takedowns. But Silva\u2019s ability to defend and create offense on the feet makes him the side to\u00a0back here. The pick is Silva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dusko Todorovic -330 vs Jose Medina +240\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDusko Todorovic enters as the heavy favorite, but recent performances raise real concerns. He\u2019s\u00a0on a losing streak, his striking defense continues to be an issue, and his last fight against Zach\u00a0 Reese showed no aggression or power. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Todorovic typically looks to clinch and grind opponents,\u00a0but even in those spots he hasn\u2019t looked dominant lately.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jose Medina, meanwhile, is fighting to save his UFC career. While he was knocked out by\u00a0Gautier in his last fight, that was his first KO loss and came against an absolute tank. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Outside of that, Medina has shown solid durability, and Todorovic isn\u2019t exactly a huge knockout threat. If\u00a0 Medina can survive clinch situations and keep the fight standing, he has the chance to land the\u00a0cleaner shots and possibly rock Todorovic multiple times.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
With Todorovic struggling for momentum and Medina fighting for his spot on the roster, this has\u00a0upset potential written on it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Todorovic may have the safer path to a decision, but Medina is live\u00a0 here\u2014and worth a sprinkle at these odds<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSantiago Luna -125 vs Quang Le -102\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSantiago Luna comes into this fight as the slight favorite, but at just 21 years old with only six\u00a0 professional bouts, there are legitimate questions about whether he\u2019s being brought into the UFC\u00a0too soon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While he has finishes and flashy highlights, most of those wins have come against very\u00a0low-level opposition, leaving us without a clear sense of how he\u2019ll perform against UFC-caliber fighters.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Quang Le, on the other hand, may not be elite, but he has valuable experience and a submission\u00a0win over a UFC fighter on his record. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His wrestling is a clear advantage here, and that could\u00a0 dictate how this matchup plays out. If he\u2019s able to get Luna down and control the fight on the\u00a0 mat, Luna\u2019s inexperience against higher-level grapplers could be exposed.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Given the contrast between Luna\u2019s raw but untested skillset and Le\u2019s proven wrestling base and\u00a0UFC-level experience, the edge leans toward Le in this matchup. I\u2019ll take the UFC-tested fighter\u00a0over the young prospect<\/strong> who may not be ready for this stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAlexander Hernandez -130 vs Diego Ferreira +115\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAlexander Hernandez steps into this fight with momentum after scoring a KO win last month,\u00a0but consistency has always been his issue. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hernandez has the speed, athleticism, and knockout\u00a0power to threaten anyone in the division, yet he\u2019s also prone to cardio dumps, defensive lapses, and costly mistakes. He\u2019s the definition of high-upside but high-risk \u2014 making him\u00a0unpredictable from one fight to the next.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Diego Ferreira, at 40 years old, may be past his peak but still brings experience and strong\u00a0striking fundamentals. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His composure and fight IQ could be the exact tools needed to capitalize\u00a0 on Hernandez\u2019s recklessness and force mistakes that swing rounds in his favor. Ferreira\u2019s\u00a0durability and veteran savvy make him a live underdog in this spot.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While Hernandez might be the more explosive fighter on paper, Ferreira\u2019s steadiness and\u00a0experience make him appealing as the value side. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Still, with Hernandez\u2019s volatility, this is not a\u00a0 fight to trust your bankroll on. If you\u2019re betting, Ferreira is the lean \u2014 but for me, it\u2019s a pass in\u00a0terms of actual wagers.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKelvin Gastelum -245 vs Dustin Stoltzfus +200\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKelvin Gastelum enters as the clear favorite, and it\u2019s easy to see why. He\u2019s a durable striker with\u00a0solid defense and proven experience against far higher levels of competition than Dustin\u00a0Stoltzfus has faced. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gastelum\u2019s patience, combined with his ability to stay composed under fire,\u00a0 makes him a tough matchup for a fighter like Stoltzfus who tends to leave openings.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Stoltzfus has had moments of success on the feet, but his striking defense is questionable, and he\u00a0too often makes mistakes that land him in bad positions. Against someone as composed and\u00a0 experienced as Gastelum, those lapses are likely to be costly.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
As the fight progresses, Gastelum\u2019s pressure and durability should start to wear Stoltzfus down.\u00a0Expect Gastelum to gradually take over and eventually find the finish after capitalizing on\u00a0Stoltzfus\u2019s mistakes. This is a fight that should favor Gastelum from start to finish<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJared Gordon -230 vs Rafa Garcia +190\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJared Gordon steps into this fight as the rightful favorite, largely due to his consistency and more\u00a0 polished overall game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking is cleaner, and he\u2019s excellent in the clinch, where he can control opponents with pressure and wear them down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gordon\u2019s experience against stronger\u00a0competition also gives him an edge in composure and fight IQ, which should be a factor here.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rafa Garcia, on the other hand, has built a record that looks better on paper than in practice.\u00a0 Many of his wins have come against aging fighters or opponents no longer competing at the UFC\u00a0 level, and every time he\u2019s stepped up in competition, he\u2019s fallen short. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While Garcia has\u00a0toughness and can hang in fights, he often struggles to impose himself against well-rounded\u00a0opponents<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRob Font -115 vs David Martinez -105\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRob Font comes in with the experience edge and remains a sharp, technical boxer with accuracy and composure, but he\u2019s getting older and has limitations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His biggest weakness is his lack of\u00a0wrestling, which makes him dependent on keeping fights standing and winning exchanges with\u00a0his hands. While his skills are still good, Martinez has the type of tools that can cause him\u00a0 serious problems.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
David Martinez is the younger, hungrier fighter, with clear power and upside. His leg kicks in\u00a0particular could be the difference-maker. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Martinez establishes them early, Font\u2019s mobility and\u00a0footwork could be compromised quickly, leaving him vulnerable to Martinez\u2019s heavier shots.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Font\u2019s experience and sharp boxing could keep him competitive, but without more weapons in\u00a0his arsenal, he\u2019ll struggle to stay ahead if Martinez keeps applying pressure.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This one should be close, but the youth, power, and leg-kick game of Martinez tilt the edge his\u00a0way. The pick is Martinez to win a competitive fight<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nExpect Gordon to dictate the pace, keep Garcia pressed against the fence, and use his striking and clinch work to rack up rounds. A finish isn\u2019t likely here, but Gordon\u2019s control and consistency should lead him to a clear decision victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC Noche Main Event: Diego Lopes +210 vs Jean Silva -260<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jean Silva enters this matchup as the favorite, riding strong momentum with his blend of big\u00a0knockout power and improving all-around skills. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s shown he can do more than just strike\u2014 his wrestling and submission game looked sharp in the fight against Bryce Mitchell, which\u00a0makes him more dangerous than just a one-dimensional puncher. If Silva can keep the fight\u00a0 standing, his raw power and striking variety should overwhelm Lopes.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Diego Lopes, however, is no easy out. He\u2019s a slick grappler with proven submission skills and\u00a0has reportedly been putting a lot of focus into improving his wrestling, likely to help set up those ground exchanges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking is solid, but Silva\u2019s power advantage looms large. Lopes\u2019 best\u00a0path to victory is to turn this into a grappling-heavy fight where he can test Silva\u2019s defensive\u00a0 wrestling and hunt for subs.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This fight is much closer than the odds suggest. Lopes has real upset potential if he can force it to\u00a0 the ground, but Silva\u2019s power and well-roundedness make him the lean. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The problem is the price \u2014at -260, Silva doesn\u2019t offer enough value. Lean Silva to win, but this is a pass from a betting\u00a0perspective<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37100"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37100\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37102,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37100\/revisions\/37102"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37101"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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