Sam Hughes -305 vs Shauna Bannon +245\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nShauna Bannon simply hasn\u2019t looked like UFC-level competition, and her last win was more\u00a0luck than skill\u2014she was dropped badly and nearly finished before pulling off a desperation\u00a0armbar against a low-level opponent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sam Hughes, on the other hand, is undersized for the\u00a0division but makes up for it with excellent cardio, constant forward pressure, and the ability to\u00a0 grind opponents down with takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bannon\u2019s striking is basic, not especially fast or\u00a0 powerful, and won\u2019t be enough to deter Hughes from marching forward. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
With Hughes\u2019 pace and\u00a0 ground control, she should be able to take over the fight in the later rounds. The most likely\u00a0outcome is Hughes by decision, as her relentless style overwhelms Bannon across three rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Andreas Gustafsson -118 vs Rinat Fakhretdinov -102\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ve been high on Andreas Gustafsson since his Contender Series appearance, and this is another\u00a0 spot where his style looks overwhelming. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s brutally physical in the clinch, driving opponents\u00a0against the fence and battering them with heavy shots to the head and body until they wilt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rinat\u00a0Fakhretdinov prefers to lean on his wrestling, but in his last fight against Carlos Leal he\u00a0struggled at times even though Leal was on short notice. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If he can\u2019t consistently keep Gustafsson\u00a0off him, the nonstop pressure and power from Gustafsson will take over. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Over three rounds<\/strong>,\u00a0Gustafsson\u2019s aggression should eventually break Rinat down, making Gustafsson the pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBrad Tavares -230 vs Robert Bryczek +190\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a fight where neither man really stands out. Brad Tavares has been a UFC veteran for a long time, but at this stage of his career his volume is low, his striking is fairly predictable, and\u00a0while he still has solid takedown defense, he no longer looks as sharp as he once did. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His recent\u00a0win came over Gerald Meerschaert, but that\u2019s less impressive given Meerschaert\u2019s limited\u00a0 striking ability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Robert Bryczek earned his UFC shot with a lot of finishes on the regional scene,\u00a0but his debut was underwhelming as he fought conservatively and went the distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That said,\u00a0he\u2019s likely to be the busier striker here, and with more activity he could edge close rounds,\u00a0 making him the right side at this price even if the pick isn\u2019t especially confident<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGet $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC Fight Night & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sam Patterson -162 vs Trey Waters +136\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSam Patterson fights are almost always volatile, and that makes unders attractive. He has\u00a0legitimate finishing ability with both knockouts and submissions, but his tendency to leave his\u00a0 chin exposed means he can be finished just as easily. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Trey Waters has gone the distance in both\u00a0 of his UFC bouts, relying more on volume and accuracy than raw power, but his style still leaves\u00a0room for danger against Patterson\u2019s aggression. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Both men are tall with long reach, so expect\u00a0each to have some success at range, but Patterson\u2019s ground game stands out as the biggest\u00a0difference-maker. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Waters was overwhelmed and submitted by Bonfim on Contender Series, and\u00a0 Patterson could replicate that blueprint, making Patterson by finish the pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Axel Sola -135 v Rhys McKee +120 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAxel Sola makes his UFC debut here, and while he has the advantage of fighting in his home\u00a0country of France, it\u2019s debatable whether he would have earned the shot without that factor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking looks serviceable, but he\u2019s been dropped by lower-level competition in the past, raising\u00a0 questions about how he\u2019ll handle the step up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He does have some ability to clinch and mix in\u00a0takedowns, but overall, his resume doesn\u2019t scream UFC-ready. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rhys McKee, meanwhile, has\u00a0 already faced higher-level competition, and his striking should be sharper and more consistent in this matchup. Given Sola\u2019s unproven status and defensive concerns, the lean is McKee,\u00a0especially at plus money<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAnte Delija -118 vs Marcin Tybura -102\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAnte Delija makes his UFC debut here, but it\u2019s tough to know how ready he truly is for this level. His recent record is padded with wins over lower-level competition, and when he faced a top opponent like Moldavsky, he was hurt and finished quickly in the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Delija brings\u00a0 power in his striking and a solid ground game, but fighters coming over from Bellator and PFL\u00a0have often struggled in their UFC debuts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Marcin Tybura may be 39, but he\u2019s still finding ways\u00a0 to win, largely by forcing fights into grappling exchanges and leaning on his ground skills. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Delija\u00a0may start fast, but his tendency to fade over three rounds gives the edge to Tybura<\/strong>, who looks\u00a0 like the pick in this spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nOumar Sy -380 vs Brendson Ribeiro +300\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nOumar Sy enters this fight looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career against Alonzo\u00a0 Menifield, and I love backing fighters in that spot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His biggest strength is in the clinch, where his\u00a0physicality can overwhelm opponents, though his lack of striking volume cost him in that last\u00a0outing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Brendson Ribeiro has shown flashes of improvement, particularly with a submission win two fights ago, but he was knocked out by Murzakanov in his following bout and has been\u00a0stopped by strikes in four of his last five losses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
For Ribeiro to pull off the upset, he would need\u00a0 to stay off the fence, use his kicks, and maintain a high pace, which is not something he\u2019s been\u00a0able to do consistently. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sy\u2019s strength and control make him the rightful pick, but at such a heavy price, it\u2019s not worth betting<\/strong>\u2014especially given his striking limitations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWilliam Gomis -230 vs Robert Ruchala +190\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWilliam Gomis has shown steady improvement since entering the UFC. Early on he looked\u00a0unpolished, but his last two fights against physical opponents like Brito and Amil proved he has\u00a0the heart and toughness to hang at this level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His style relies on distance management with a\u00a0 karate stance, but he can get wild with spinning attacks and has a tendency to fade, which\u00a0doesn\u2019t always look great to the judges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Robert Ruchala, meanwhile, is a very active striker with\u00a0 constant movement, and he supplements that activity with takedowns and strong top control; his\u00a0only career loss came to a highly experienced opponent with a 17-1 record. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Given Gomis\u2019\u00a0 history of close split decisions and Ruchala\u2019s pace and cardio, this fight looks primed to go deep, and the pick is Ruchala by decision at this price<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLosene Keita -205 v Patricio Pitbull +170 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPatricio Pitbull pulled off the upset against Dan Ige, but that result was more about Ige\u00a0underperforming than Pitbull looking dominant. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The oddsmakers seem to agree, making him the\u00a0 underdog here despite his experience and name value. Losene Keita, making his UFC debut,\u00a0brings real athleticism, speed, and knockout power from his success in the OKTAGON\u00a0promotion, where he\u2019s already beaten high-level competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pitbull\u2019s best path is to slow things\u00a0down with clinch work and grind Keita against the fence, but at this stage of his career he looks too slow and worn to execute that game plan effectively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
With youth, explosiveness, and\u00a0momentum on his side, Keita is the pick to make a statement in his debut<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFares Ziam -340 vs Kaue Fernandes +270\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFares Ziam is a fighter I initially wasn\u2019t high on, but his development has made me a believer.\u00a0His striking has sharpened considerably\u2014he uses his length effectively with jabs and kicks\u2014and\u00a0 he\u2019s shown the ability to hold top position and deal damage on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kaue Fernandes,\u00a0however, is no pushover; he\u2019s coming off a dominant win over Guram Kutateladze where his leg\u00a0 kicks, striking, and takedown defense all looked excellent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That makes this line feel too wide, as\u00a0Fernandes has the tools to keep this competitive. Instead of picking a side, the better play looks\u00a0like the fight to go the distance<\/strong>, as both men are durable with strong cardio and this projects as a\u00a0close decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nModestas Bukauskas -325 vs Paul Craig +260\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis fight sets up as another opportunity to fade Paul Craig, who has been one-dimensional\u00a0 throughout his UFC career. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking is sloppy, his wrestling is ineffective, and outside of\u00a0pulling off opportunistic submissions, he doesn\u2019t have a reliable path to victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s managed just one win in his last seven, and his most recent fight ended in a strange no contest after nearly\u00a0being finished from bottom position before landing an illegal upkick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
On the other side,\u00a0Modestas Bukauskas has strung together three straight wins, showing solid striking and much\u00a0more composure inside the cage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
As long as he avoids getting caught in a submission, Bukauskas\u00a0 should comfortably make it four in a row<\/strong> with his stand-up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMason Jones -142 vs Bolaji Oki +120\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBolaji Oki hasn\u2019t shown the upside many expected when he entered the UFC. His split-decision\u00a0win over Cuamba was unimpressive, he was submitted by Duncan, and though he beat Aswell in\u00a0his last fight, that came against a short-notice opponent moving up in weight\u2014a fight he should\u00a0have finished but didn\u2019t. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking defense remains questionable, and he often relies on\u00a0opponents making mistakes for openings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mason Jones, meanwhile, is getting a second UFC run\u00a0and looked strong in his recent win over Jeremy Stephens, where he displayed sharp striking\u00a0along with effective clinch and takedown work. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
With his more complete skill set and experience,\u00a0Jones looks poised to expose Oki\u2019s flaws and get the win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMauricio Ruffy -192 vs Benoit Saint Denis +160\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThere are a lot of concerns about Benoit Saint Denis at this point in his career. After years of\u00a0wear on his body from both his MMA career and his military background, he\u2019s looked physically\u00a0broken in his recent losses to Moicano and Poirier, where he simply couldn\u2019t withstand the\u00a0 pressure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His rebound win came against Kyle Prepolec, who had no business being in the UFC,\u00a0and while Saint Denis eventually finished him in the second round, he didn\u2019t look impressive in\u00a0doing so. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mauricio Ruffy, meanwhile, is an explosive striker with massive power and pinpoint\u00a0accuracy, representing the Fighting Nerds camp that has consistently turned out sharp game\u00a0plans with stars like Jean Silva and Caio Borralho. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Ruffy keeps this standing, his striking\u00a0should overwhelm Saint Denis, and the most likely outcome is Ruffy by knockout<\/strong> in a bad\u00a0stylistic matchup for the Frenchman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Nassourdine Imavov +110 vs Caio Borralho -130<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Caio Borralho has been a sharp betting target since his Contender Series days, and his game\u00a0continues to evolve. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s shown excellent wrestling and ground control throughout his UFC run,\u00a0 but what really stands out is how much his striking has improved\u2014he went five rounds striking with Jared Cannonier and held his own. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
As the founder of the Fighting Nerds gym, he\u00a0 consistently comes in with elite game plans that maximize his strengths and exploit opponent\u00a0weaknesses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Imavov may be on a solid winning streak, but the wins don\u2019t stand out as elite\u2014 beating a faded Adesanya, a decision over Brendan Allen, and a late KO of Cannonier while trailing on the scorecards. Borralho\u2019s ability to outsmart opponents, bank rounds, and mix his\u00a0skill set makes him the pick here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37007","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37007"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37007\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37099,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37007\/revisions\/37099"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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