{"id":36820,"date":"2025-08-19T16:29:53","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T20:29:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=36820"},"modified":"2025-08-19T16:29:55","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T20:29:55","slug":"kansas-state-vs-iowa-state-prediction-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football\/kansas-state-vs-iowa-state-prediction-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Kansas State vs Iowa State Prediction and Betting Preview | Farmageddon 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Saturday’s Kansas State vs Iowa State showdown in Ireland is a massive game to kick off the season because of how closely-contested the Big XII is expected to be this season. Our summer power ratings have nine teams positioned within a touchdown of each other at the top of the conference standings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kansas State vs Iowa State Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Date and Time<\/td>August 23 at 12pm ET \/ 9am PT<\/td><\/tr>
Point Spread<\/td>Kansas State -3<\/td><\/tr>
Total<\/td>49.5 Points<\/td><\/tr>
Location<\/td>Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland<\/td><\/tr>
TV<\/td>ESPN<\/td><\/tr>
Forecast<\/td>Cloudy and Humid with a High of 70*<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of August 19. The Cyclones have dominated this series in recent years, going 4-1 straight-up and 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024 Kansas State Stats<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Strength of Schedule<\/strong>: No. 38 (courtesy of Jeff Sagarin)
Turnover Differential<\/strong>: -1 (No. 65 Nationally)
Plays per Game<\/strong>: 66.4 (No. 89)
Seconds per Play<\/strong>: 26.5 (No. 70)
Average Time of Possession<\/strong>: 29:10 (No. 91)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kansas State on Offense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yards per Game<\/strong>: 426.8 (No. 31)
Points per Game<\/strong>: 30.8 (No. 46)
Yards per Play<\/strong>: 6.57 (No. 13)
Offensive Success Rate<\/strong>: 43.5-percent (No. 44)
Explosive Plays (20+ Yards)<\/strong>: 71 (No. 23)
Net EPA per Play<\/strong>: +0.16 (No. 18)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kansas State on Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yards per Game Allowed<\/strong>: 343.4 (No. 43)
Points per Game Allowed<\/strong>: 23.4 (No. 49)
Yards per Play Allowed<\/strong>: 5.26 (No. 43)
Defensive Success Rate<\/strong>: 36.9-percent (No. 17)
Explosive Plays Allowed (20+ Yards)<\/strong>: 42<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024 Iowa State Stats<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Strength of Schedule<\/strong>: No. 34 (courtesy of Jeff Sagarin)
Turnover Differential<\/strong>: +9 (No. 22)
Plays per Game<\/strong>: 73.5 (No. 16)
Seconds per Play<\/strong>: 26.7 (No. 72)
Average Time of Possession<\/strong>: 31:59 (No. 18)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iowa State on Offense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yards per Game<\/strong>: 416.2 (No. 39)
Points per Game<\/strong>: 31.1 (No. 41)
Yards per Play<\/strong>: 5.89 (No. 63)
Offensive Success Rate<\/strong>: 40.4-percent (No. 93)
Explosive Plays (20+ Yards)<\/strong>: 73 (No. 18)
Net EPA per Play<\/strong>: +0.07 (No. 51)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iowa State on Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yards per Game Allowed<\/strong>: 353.9 (No. 51)
Points per Game Allowed<\/strong>: 22.9 (No. 40)
Yards per Play Allowed<\/strong>: 5.73 (No. 79)
Defensive Success Rate<\/strong>: 40.1-percent (No. 59)
Explosive Plays Allowed (20+ Yards)<\/strong>: 57 (No. 73)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Kansas<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kansas State vs Iowa State Prediction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even though Iowa State has enjoyed recent success in this matchup (4-1 straight-up; 5-0 ATS last five years), we are interested in laying the points with Kansas State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Per Jeff Sagarin, these teams played near-identical schedules last year (Iowa State No. 34; K-State No. 38), but the Wildcats were better in nearly every metric aside from the record column. K-State out-gained its opponents by 83.4 yards per game. The Wildcats held a +1.31 yards per play differential over their opponents while Iowa State only had a +0.16 edge. K-State had a better offensive and defensive success rate than Iowa State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the Wildcats have a higher returning production number and K-State attracted a better class of recruits and transfers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iowa State was the beneficiary of a +9 turnover differential last season while K-State was -1. As long as that turnover demon doesn’t appear, we feel comfortable laying the small number with the ‘Cats in Ireland. KANSAS STATE -3<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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