| TV:<\/td> | PPV<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\nBefore You Read UFC 318 Predictions... Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC 318 & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC 318 Main Event: Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\nFirst off, I know Dustin is 2-0 against Max, but I don't care. The fights were in 2019 and 2012. Throw them out the window. This is Poirier's retirement fight, and these normally don't go well for the retiring fighter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n These guys are going to war, this could be a fight for the ages, and honestly I don't really care about their recent fights as Max lost to maybe the best fighter on the planet, and Dustin lost to the other best fighter on the planet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n I lean Holloway here because of the volume and distance I think he will display. Dustin has good power, but I don't know if he can get inside of the jabs and boxing of Max. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n I go back to the Gaethje fight in 2023 where Gaethje knocked out Poirier, and I thought Dustin was just a bit slower to react to the striking and he got caught with the big head kick when he didn't react in time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Since then, he beat Saint Denis, but was getting beat in the first round, and got lucky that Denis gassed in the second. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Then he put on a good display against Makhachev, but Makhachev isn't a striker, and Poirier ended up getting submitted. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Holloway had some success on the feet against Topuria, which is impressive, but he got taken down a couple times so he's vulnerable there, but that's not Dustin's game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n The lean is to Holloway<\/strong>, but I'm not going to bet it as I just want to be a fan and watch Poirier's last fight with no money on it. I don't see a lot of value betting either side<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC 318 Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\nRoman Kopylov -255 vs Paulo Costa +215 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI wouldn't be in a hurry to bet on Kopylov in this one. I bet against Costa in his last fight against Strickland, and even though the bet won, Costa showed a lot of heart, and much improved cardio and fight IQ. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Kopylov has improved immensely over the last few years, and he has KO power, but Costa went the distance against Strickland and Whittaker so he's durable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Kopylov has good speed, but he's hittable, and his cardio can be an issue. I think Costa makes this close on the feet, I expect it to go the distance. To go the distance is the best bet for me in this one<\/strong>, for the side is Costa or pass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKevin Holland -450 vs Daniel Rodriguez +350 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWhat a great matchup for Holland here. Holland fought in early June, but\u00a0absorbed no damage in his easy win against Luque, and that's 2 great\u00a0performances in a row for him. His striking has looked really on point, and\u00a0he can submit anyone at any point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n D-Rod is an aging fighter who doesn't\u00a0 have much speed, and he's getting a lot of credit for beating Ponzinibbio in\u00a0his last fight, but Ponz has terrible IQ, and no chin whatsoever. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Rodriguez barely beat a retired Alex Morono before that, he's just not the fighter he\u00a0used to be. Holland has the advantage everywhere<\/strong>, especially the longer\u00a0this fight goes as he doesn't slow down, and D-Rod certainly does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDan Ige -200 vs Patricio Pitbull +170\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPitbull lost his UFC debut against Yair Rodriguez, he had trouble with the\u00a0range and striking of Rodriguez, and while Ige isn't as long as Rodriguez,\u00a0he has good striking. Pitbull will look to clinch, and get Ige down as in close\u00a0 quarters is where he'll have success. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Ige will have the volume, and power\u00a0advantage, but Pitbull can be good on the ground so I'm not ruling him out\u00a0of having good moments on the ground and against the fence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n I love this fight to go the distance. It's a steep price to pay, but I don't see a finish in this one. Pitbull is tough, but older so I don't see him getting a finish or\u00a0getting finished<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDaniel Zellhuber -500 vs Michael Johnson +375\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIt's tough to find underdogs I like on this card, and Johnson certainly isn't\u00a0one of them. He's won his last 2 fights, but against complete bums, and his\u00a0last opponent, Azaitar, gets knocked out early, but he gave Johnson\u00a0problems in the first round, and in the second until he inevitably got knocked out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Johnson also beat Darrius Flowers, but needed a decision\u00a0 win, not a good look. Zellhuber is long, rangy and has good, crisp striking,\u00a0and is coming off a close split decision loss, and if he had won that split\u00a0 decision he would've gotten a step up in competition, instead he gets a\u00a0step down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Johnson is 39, Zellhuber is going to have a lot of success at\u00a0range, and with higher volume, he's the easy pick here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nVinicius Oliveira -170 vs Kyler Phillips +145\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nOliveira has been incredibly impressive so far in the UFC. He's shown KO\u00a0 power, a great ground game, and what he did against Nurmagomedov was\u00a0incredible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n He had a very painful injury that he fought through, and he somehow toughed out a win. He's as confident as anyone, he brags that\u00a0he's beat 4 Russians in his career, and he called out Umar Nurmagomedov\u00a0after his last fight, a fighter nobody calls out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n We've had a great read on\u00a0Kyler Phillips, we predicted his wins, and we predicted his loss against Rob\u00a0 Font. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n He got outboxed and outvolumed on the feet, and he was only able to have success with takedowns, but Font has atrocious takedown defense,\u00a0and Oliveira has great takedown defense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Takedown defense, ground\u00a0 game, power, volume, speed and toughness are all on the side of Oliveira.\u00a0I was worried about the injury, but he said it needed 6 weeks to heal, didn't\u00a0need surgery, and it's been 5 months since his last fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n He also said that\u00a0Carlos Prates is helping him to find the best places to train in Thailand so if\u00a0 he's working with or getting help from Prates, that's another selling point.\u00a0Oliveira is the clear pick, probably my favorite of the card<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBrendan Allen -210 vs Marvin Vettori +180\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nVettori doesn't seem to have much left for upside as a fighter. He's dealt\u00a0with injuries in his career, his striking doesn't scare anyone at this point, it's\u00a0not fast, it's predictable, and he doesn't have a KO win in his last 8 fights.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Allen will have much more volume, he'll be faster on the feet, and he'll be\u00a0better on the ground if it gets there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Allen is coming off of decision wins to\u00a0Hernandez, and Imavov, 2 of the best right now while Vettori just lost a\u00a0snoozefest fight to Dolidze. Allen is the easy pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFrancisco Prado -150 vs Nikolay Veretinnikov +130\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nVeretinnikov has dropped both of his UFC fights\u2014one to a striker and one\u00a0 to a grappler\u2014and hasn\u2019t shown much in the way of offense or defense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n He\u00a0was dominated on the ground by Vanderford and had extremely low output\u00a0 in his loss to Barlow, managing just 21 strikes over the first two rounds.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Prado, while a bit undersized, keeps a high pace and has faced better\u00a0competition in recent losses to Jake Matthews and Daniel Zellhuber.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Veretinnikov hasn\u2019t impressed, and Prado should outwork him across three\u00a0rounds. Prado by decision is the pick<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAteba Gautier -550 vs Robert Valentin +400 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a striker vs striker matchup with fireworks written all over it. Valentin\u00a0has dropped his UFC bouts to grapplers, but this time he gets a striking\u00a0affair where he\u2019s much more dangerous. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Gautier brings huge power but is\u00a0 still raw\u2014his takedown game is lacking, his defense is suspect, and he\u2019s vulnerable to leg kicks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Valentin absolutely has the tools to land a bomb\u00a0and pull the upset. The line is way too wide for how volatile this fight is. I\u00a0like the Under 1.5 rounds at -125\u2014someone\u2019s getting knocked out early<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIslam Dulatov -560 vs Adam Fugitt +410 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDulatov is explosive, aggressive, and fights with serious urgency\u2014he\u2019s\u00a0 never gone the distance since his pro debut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n He uses his speed and\u00a0striking to control range and pace early, often overwhelming opponents\u00a0before they can settle in. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n However, his cardio is a big concern if he doesn\u2019t\u00a0 get an early finish. Fugitt is a durable UFC veteran with grappling and\u00a0 clinch experience, but he lacks the explosiveness to match Dulatov early.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n The key here is survival\u2014if Fugitt weathers the first-round storm, he\u2019s very\u00a0live in rounds 2 and 3 as Dulatov fades. No pre-fight bet for me\u2014this is a\u00a0classic live-bet spot on Fugitt if he survives round 1<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJimmy Crute -240 vs Marcin Prachnio +205 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJimmy Crute unretired and fought Bellato to a draw, showing strong striking\u00a0early and even earning a 10-8 first round, but his cardio faded badly in the later rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n That\u2019s a concern against Marcin Prachnio, who brings decent,\u00a0if sometimes reckless, striking and has shown vulnerabilities to takedowns \u2014as seen in his loss to Bukauskas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Crute\u2019s wrestling edge should be a\u00a0factor here, and if he mixes in grappling with his early striking success, he\u00a0should be able to win at least two rounds and take the decision. Crute is\u00a0the pick<\/strong>, but his cardio will need to hold up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRyan Spann -220 vs Lucas Brzeski +180 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLucas Brzeski\u2019s durability has disappeared, with three knockout losses in\u00a0 his last four fights, and that\u2019s a major red flag heading into a matchup with\u00a0 Ryan Spann.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n While Spann has underperformed at times\u2014often showing up\u00a0 out of shape with questionable cardio\u2014he still carries real knockout power.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Brzeski\u2019s defense and chin aren\u2019t likely to hold up against even a few clean\u00a0 shots from Spann. Expect Spann to land something heavy early and get\u00a0the KO finish. Pick is Spann by knockout, likely under 1.5 rounds<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBrunno Ferreira -750 vs Jackson McVey +525<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJackson McVey finally makes his UFC debut after several canceled bouts,\u00a0but he gets thrown into the fire against a dangerous opponent in Brunno\u00a0Ferreira. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n McVey is a wild and violent striker\u2014none of his fights have gone\u00a0 beyond the first round\u2014but his aggressive, all-or-nothing style leaves huge\u00a0openings that skilled opponents can exploit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Ferreira continues to evolve,\u00a0showing knockout power and an improving ground game, most recently\u00a0 submitting a talented striker in Petrosyan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n This is a tough matchup for\u00a0McVey, and while Ferreira is the clear pick, the -750 price tag offers no\u00a0 value. Even the under 1.5 rounds is juiced to -250, making this a likely pass\u00a0from a betting perspective<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCarli Judice -285 vs Nicolle Caliari +245 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCarli Judice has a solid background with six pro fights and a strong\u00a0 amateur resume, and she brings a well-rounded striking game with good\u00a0volume, KO power, and a nice mix of kicks and punches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Nicolle Caliari is\u00a0physically strong but slower on the feet, and she was controlled against the fence by a kickboxer in her last outing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Caliari\u2019s path to victory is through\u00a0takedowns, but her wrestling isn't particularly effective. Judice has a clear\u00a0edge in speed and striking, and as long as she can keep the fight standing for at least two rounds, she should be able to do enough to win a decision.\u00a0Judice is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAre you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! 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