Stephen Thompson +310 vs Gabriel Bonfim -400 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nClassic clash of styles here. Thompson brings his trademark karate stance and footwork, using\u00a0range, movement, and clean striking to frustrate opponents\u2014though he lacks true KO power and\u00a0offers little threat on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bonfim is the opposite: younger, explosive, and dangerous with\u00a0submissions once the fight hits the mat. The path to victory is clear for both\u2014Bonfim via\u00a0takedown and finish, Thompson via distance control and a striking clinic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Thompson can keep\u00a0 this standing, there's real upset potential. At this price, a small play on Thompson by decision\u00a0could be worth the shot<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSteve Garcia -135 vs Calvin Kattar +115 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKattar has now dropped four straight and hasn\u2019t looked the same since his knee injury. While\u00a0he\u2019s faced elite competition, his takedown defense remains a weakness\u2014but that likely won\u2019t be\u00a0tested here, as Garcia prefers a striking battle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Garcia has won five in a row, all by KO, though he\u00a0does absorb a fair amount of damage. This figures to be a stand-up war, and with Kattar showing\u00a0 signs of decline, Garcia only needs one clean shot to end it. Until Kattar proves he's back to\u00a0form, Garcia is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMorgan Charriere -240 vs Nate Landwehr +200 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLandwehr has always relied on grit and pressure, but his last fight was concerning\u2014he was dominated by Choi and looked mentally checked out. At this point, the wars may be catching up\u00a0to him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Charriere is technically sound and has solid ground skills, but his biggest flaw is his low\u00a0volume, often looking for the perfect shot instead of simply outworking opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That can cost\u00a0him on the scorecards, but if Landwehr shows up like he did last time, Charriere's patience and\u00a0 control should be more than enough. The pick is Charriere by decision<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGet $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC Fight Night & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Vitor Petrino -650 vs Austen Lane +460 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBoth fighters have flaws, but Lane\u2019s recklessness and cardio issues make him a major liability\u00a0here. His lone UFC win came against Despaigne, who offered zero takedown resistance, and in\u00a0his three UFC losses, Lane was knocked out each time\u2014his chin just hasn\u2019t held up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Petrino has\u00a0dropped two straight, but those were against much tougher opponents than Lane. Despite his own\u00a0tendency for low volume and mistakes, Petrino should have the better cardio and composure as\u00a0the fight goes on. Expect him to take over after Round 1 and potentially hand Lane another KO\u00a0loss<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJunior Tafa -180 vs Tuco Tokkos +140 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a low-level heavyweight fight with major question marks on both sides. Tokkos has\u00a0shown very little in terms of striking or wrestling, and while Tafa has virtually no takedown\u00a0defense, he does have serious power. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This likely comes down to whether Tokkos can survive the\u00a0early storm\u2014and there\u2019s little reason to believe he can. Tafa by KO is the play<\/strong>, as he\u2019s the more\u00a0dangerous striker and Tokkos just isn\u2019t UFC caliber.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nChris Curtis -320 vs Max Griffin +250 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nChris Curtis has the clear edge in this matchup thanks to his strong striking and excellent takedown defense, which should neutralize most of what Max Griffin brings to the table. Griffin is nearing 40 and hasn\u2019t looked impressive lately\u2014his two recent wins were razor-thin split decisions, and he was submitted by Chiesa in the third round. He doesn\u2019t throw with enough volume or power to threaten Curtis on the feet. Expect Curtis to dictate the pace, stuff takedowns, and land the cleaner shots en route to a convincing decision win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Muhammad Naimov -230 vs Bogdan Grad +190 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a high-energy matchup between two aggressive fighters who both mix striking and grappling well. Naimov likes to push forward, throw big shots, and hunt takedowns, but he's not immune to getting clipped in exchanges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Grad showed his toughness in his last fight\u2014 weathering early adversity and turning the tide with a knockdown and a finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Both guys will\u00a0have their moments in what should be a fast-paced scrap, but this feels a lot closer to a pick\u2019em\u00a0than the odds suggest. In a 50\/50 style fight, the value sits with Grad at plus money<\/strong>. He\u2019s the\u00a0 pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nChidi Njokuani -115 vs Jake Matthews -105 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a tough fight to trust either side. Matthews has the wrestling edge, but he's notorious for\u00a0making costly mistakes\u2014whether it\u2019s getting reversed or failing to maintain control. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking\u00a0has some power but lacks consistency. Chidi has sharp, fast hands and clean striking, but he\u2019s\u00a0vulnerable to being pushed against the cage and controlled. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s likely a close fight, but I\u2019ll lean\u00a0 toward Chidi<\/strong> to land the cleaner, more damaging shots and edge out a decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nEduarda Moura -600 vs Lauren Murphy +430 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLauren Murphy is 41, hasn\u2019t fought in over two years, and was already slowing down in her last\u00a0few appearances. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She lacks the speed and offensive tools to threaten someone like Eduarda\u00a0Moura, who is physically imposing for the division and brings a strong grappling base with solid\u00a0striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Moura should dominate this fight with her strength, takedowns, and pressure. With\u00a0major advantages in age, athleticism, and power, this looks like a mismatch. Moura should cruise\u00a0to a dominant win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKennedy Nzechukwu -240 vs Valter Walker +200 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBoth fighters are riding win streaks, but against very soft competition. Kennedy is long, powerful, and wants to keep this standing where his striking is his biggest weapon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Walker, on\u00a0the other hand, has shown slick submission skills with back-to-back heel hook wins and will be\u00a0hunting for takedowns and control. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Given the clash in styles and how untested both have been\u00a0against quality opponents, this line feels too wide. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Walker can drag Kennedy to the mat, he has a real chance to either steal rounds or find another submission. A small shot on Walker as a live\u00a0 underdog makes sense<\/strong> in a fight that\u2019s closer than the odds suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMike Davis -1000 vs Mitch Ramirez +650<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMitch Ramirez looked completely out of his depth against Thiago Moises \u2014 overwhelmed by\u00a0the wrestling, finished by leg kicks, and never able to get anything going offensively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s a\u00a0major red flag heading into this fight with Mike Davis. Davis is a well-rounded fighter coming\u00a0off a tough loss, but this is a big step down in competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He has the wrestling to dominate\u00a0control time and keep Ramirez on the defensive all fight. Not sure if Davis finds the finish, but he\u00a0 should win comfortably with top control and pressure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Davis by decision or Inside the Distance\u00a0depending on the odds<\/strong> \u2014 either way, Davis should cruise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFatima Kline -1100 vs Melissa Martinez +700 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMelissa Martinez relies on speed and movement on the feet, but she lacks the power to keep\u00a0opponents honest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That\u2019ll be a problem here, as Fatima Kline holds a massive advantage in\u00a0physicality, wrestling, and ground control. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kline's last fight showed her ability to reverse\u00a0 takedown attempts and dominate on the mat with ground and pound. Martinez has to keep this\u00a0standing for 15 minutes, but that feels unlikely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kline should get this to the ground early and find\u00a0 a finish \u2014 either by TKO or submission. Kline Inside the Distance is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Teixeira is the shiny new name\u201425 years old, explosive, and riding the hype of several quick\u00a0 finishes. He hasn\u2019t been tested past the first round in MMA yet, but did go the distance in a\u00a0kickboxing match, which gives a little hope about his gas tank. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lewis, on the other hand, has lost\u00a05 of his last 8, and his 3 wins came against guys no longer with the UFC. He\u2019s slowed down\u00a0considerably, throws very little volume, and often looks like he\u2019s waiting for one big shot that\u00a0never comes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The upside, speed, and violence are all with Teixeira. The pick is Tallison to get it\u00a0done\u2014likely inside the distance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36034"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36034\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36260,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36034\/revisions\/36260"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24439"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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