Jacobe Smith -1400 vs Niko Price +800 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJacobe Smith is a powerful, athletic new addition to the UFC roster, and this matchup looks\u00a0tailor-made for him to shine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Niko Price is an aging veteran who hasn\u2019t looked the same in recent\u00a0 years\u2014he's lost 4 of his last 5, has cardio issues, and showed little resistance when held down by\u00a0Gorimbo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Smith brings speed, strength, and the kind of explosive power that should overwhelm\u00a0Price early. The moneyline is too steep to play, but once props drop, look to target Smith by\u00a0finish<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSedrique Dumas -180 vs Jackson McVey +150 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDumas comes in as the favorite, but there's no way I can back him. His decision-making\u2014both inside and outside the cage\u2014has been terrible, with a recent arrest adding to the red flags. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His\u00a0striking is subpar, and his ground game only looks decent when he's up against weak opponents.\u00a0 McVey is 6-0 with all first-round finishes, though the level of competition has been poor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Still,\u00a0he brings violence early, and if he comes out aggressive, he has a real chance to get a finish\u00a0before Dumas can grind him down. I don\u2019t trust Dumas at all\u2014McVey is worth a sprinkle as the\u00a0underdog<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJhonata Diniz -270 vs Alvin Hines +220 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAlvin Hines is a 33-year-old brawler with very little experience against real competition\u2014he had\u00a0one amateur bout in 2011, then disappeared for over a decade before returning in 2022. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s\u00a0slow, throws with power, and likes head kicks, but he\u2019s one-dimensional and has only faced low level opposition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jhonata Diniz, while not flawless\u2014especially with his takedown defense\u2014 won\u2019t have to worry about that here, as Hines doesn\u2019t shoot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Diniz is the more technical striker,\u00a0with better footwork, higher volume, and should be able to pick Hines apart. Diniz is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTerrance McKinney -185 vs Viacheslav Borshchev +155\u00a0<\/strong>This is a classic \u201cdon\u2019t blink\u201d fight\u2014Terrance McKinney is always dangerous early, but he\u00a0completely falls apart after the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHis cardio issues are well documented, but his\u00a0explosiveness makes him a first-round knockout or submission threat every time out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Borshchev\u00a0is a clean striker but has major issues with takedown defense, which makes him vulnerable early.\u00a0 If he survives the first round, he likely takes over and finishes a fading McKinney. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The best way\u00a0to play this is the fight not to go the distance<\/em>, or McKinney Inside The Distance<\/em>\u2014because if he\u00a0doesn\u2019t finish early, he probably loses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTracy Cortez -225 vs Viviane Araujo +185 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a close fight on paper, and the value lies with the underdog. Tracy Cortez has a solid\u00a0wrestling base and appears to be in a good mental space after distancing herself from distractions\u00a0outside the cage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, Viviane Araujo still has plenty left in the tank at 38 and is coming off\u00a0a strong win against the dangerous Karine Silva. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While Cortez may have a grappling edge,\u00a0Araujo should have the cleaner and more effective striking, and her takedown defense has held\u00a0up against tougher wrestlers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cortez\u2019s most recent fight was a loss to Rose Namajunas, and\u00a0Araujo has shown she can still compete at a high level. I\u2019ll take a shot on Araujo as a live dog<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJose Delgado -160 vs Hyder Amil +130 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis matchup features two explosive strikers, but the value is clearly on the underdog. While\u00a0Delgado has serious knockout power and is flashy on the feet, his only loss came in a fight that\u00a0went the distance\u2014suggesting that if he can't get the early finish, things get dicey. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Amil showed\u00a0 real grit and toughness in his last fight against Gomis, winning a hard-fought three-rounder and\u00a0 proving he can thrive in deep waters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Delgado hasn\u2019t faced anyone at Amil\u2019s level yet, and I\u00a0think that experience edge will show late. If Amil can survive the early danger, he has a great\u00a0shot to take over. Amil is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGregory Rodrigues -192 vs Jack Hermansson +160<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a classic power vs durability matchup. Rodrigues brings explosive power and aggressive\u00a0striking, but he\u2019s known for poor cardio and suspect striking defense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He often abandons his\u00a0wrestling, which cost him in his loss to Cannonier. Hermansson, now 37, doesn\u2019t fight\u00a0 frequently, but he\u2019s an intelligent, experienced veteran who executed a perfect game plan against\u00a0 Pyfer\u2014surviving early, then turning up the pressure as his opponent faded. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rodrigues will likely\u00a0win the early exchanges, but if he gasses out, Hermansson has the tools to rally. That said,\u00a0Rodrigues likely learned from his last outing and should pace himself better here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ll lean with\u00a0Rodrigues to land the bigger moments and edge out a decision<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFelipe Lima -180 vs Payton Talbott +150 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTalbott came into the UFC with serious hype, but reality hit hard when veteran Raoni Barcelos\u00a0exposed the holes in his game\u2014taking him down, controlling him, and neutralizing his power\u00a0shots. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Since then, Talbott hasn\u2019t shown meaningful improvement, and the distractions outside the cage (like his reality TV appearances) raise red flags about his focus. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, Lima is the\u00a0complete package: crisp striking, strong grappling, solid defense, and proven finishing ability.\u00a0This line feels like a gift considering the skill gap and momentum. Lima is the clear pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRenato Moicano -162 vs Beneil Dariush +136 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis one\u2019s a stay-away. Dariush has looked completely shot in his last two, getting finished in\u00a0the first round both times, and at 35 with his style, the decline may be irreversible. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
But Moicano\u00a0isn\u2019t without his own issues\u2014he\u2019s been rehabbing a shoulder injury and has been open that he\u2019s\u00a0 just looking for paydays. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
On the feet, Dariush probably has the edge; on the ground, it\u2019s\u00a0Moicano. Too many question marks on both sides to trust either with your money. Total pass<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBrandon Royval -125 vs Josh Van +105 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJosh Van is getting a lot of hype\u2014and for good reason. He\u2019s 4-0 in the UFC, his striking is sharp and improving fast, and his takedown defense has held up well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
But this is a big step up. Royval\u00a0 is a chaotic puzzle\u2014his wild angles, cardio, and head movement make him a nightmare to deal\u00a0with, even for more polished strikers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s only lost to the elite (Pantoja twice and Moreno with\u00a0 a shoulder injury), and I don\u2019t think Van is quite at that level yet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Royval\u2019s awkwardness and\u00a0relentless pressure should carry him here. I\u2019ll back the more proven fighter\u2014Royval is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAlexandre Pantoja -265 vs Kai Kara-France <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPantoja is the champ for a reason\u2014he\u2019s beaten just about everyone the UFC has thrown at him, and that list includes most of the top contenders. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His ground game is suffocating, and once he\u00a0 drags opponents into his world, it\u2019s either dominant rounds or slick submissions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kai Kara France gets this title shot despite being 1-2 in his last three, and while he\u2019s dangerous early with\u00a0power, he\u2019s outmatched here if it hits the mat. Unless France scores a flash KO, this is Pantoja\u2019s\u00a0 fight all day. Easy pick\u2014Pantoja retains<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC 317 Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a brutal stylistic matchup for Oliveira. Topuria has elite boxing and serious knockout\u00a0 power, which spells trouble for a guy like Charles who\u2019s been clipped and dropped plenty of\u00a0times in recent fights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Oliveira\u2019s path is the ground game, but he\u2019s getting older and hasn\u2019t\u00a0 looked nearly as sharp\u2014he couldn\u2019t even finish Chandler when he had the chance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Topuria\u2019s\u00a0takedown defense should keep this standing, and if it does, he\u2019s going to land something big.\u00a0 Wait for the props\u2014Topuria by KO\/finish is the angle here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35817","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35817"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35817\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35819,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35817\/revisions\/35819"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35818"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35817"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35817"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35817"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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