Khaos Williams vs Andreas Gustafsson <\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a clash of styles with both fighters stepping in on short notice after their original opponents dropped out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Williams holds a clear experience edge and will look to keep this fight at range, using his speed and straight punches to stay out of danger. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gustafsson, making his UFC debut at 34, brings relentless pressure and a brawling clinch-heavy style focused on knees, elbows, and body work. He openly admits he's not technical\u2014he\u2019s chaos personified. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This fight likely comes down to whether Khaos can circle, avoid the clinch, and pick Gustafsson apart at range. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If he can stay disciplined, Gustafsson may walk into too much clean damage to stay upright. Advantage Khaos<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMarQuel Mederos vs Mark Choinski <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMederos vs. Choinski features a classic short-notice debut spot for Choinski, who comes in undefeated but untested at the UFC level, with most of his experience coming from Anthony Pettis\u2019s league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mederos hasn\u2019t been particularly flashy in his two UFC wins\u2014his striking lacks pop\u2014but he moves well, has solid clinch work, and his cardio is a real weapon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Choinski is a mystery, but betting against a late-replacement fighter who hasn\u2019t faced top-level competition is usually the right call. Mederos should be able to outwork him over three rounds<\/strong>. He\u2019s the pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nQuillan Salkilld -425 vs Yanal Ashmouz +330 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSalkilld vs Ashmouz is a matchup between two well-rounded fighters, but Salkilld appears to have the edge in consistency. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He impressed on Contender Series and scored a quick finish in his UFC debut, though we didn\u2019t get to see his full skill set. He\u2019s solid everywhere\u2014striking, grappling, and cardio\u2014but doesn\u2019t yet stand out in any one area. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ashmouz is more explosive and dangerous early, with quick hands and strong takedowns, but when he can\u2019t land clean or dominate the wrestling, his gas tank fades, as we saw against Duncan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Salkilld should be able to weather the early storm and take over, but at the current price, this is a pass<\/strong>. Lean Salkilld, no bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAzamat Murzakanov -520 vs Brendson Ribeiro +390 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRibeiro vs. Murzakanov is a clear step up in class for Ribeiro, who enters on short notice and has only beaten low-level competition in the UFC. While Ribeiro is aggressive and willing to brawl, his takedown defense and overall game still look raw. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His last win came via kimura, but he was on his back after getting taken down, and hadn\u2019t shown much before the finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Murzakanov, on the other hand, is 34 and undefeated, built more like an old-school brawler\u2014nothing flashy, just brutally effective. He has surprising speed, heavy hands, and a knack for finding the target. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
With Ribeiro stepping in late, Murzakanov\u2019s power and pace should overwhelm him. The pick is Murzakanov by KO<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJoo Sang Yoo -455 vs Jeka Saragih +350<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nYoo vs. Saragih is a fight between two low-level prospects, but it\u2019s clear the UFC is trying to keep Saragih around for regional marketability, not skill. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s 1-2 in the UFC with his only win coming on a wild, fluky KO that he likely couldn\u2019t recreate. In his other appearances, he\u2019s been finished and looked overmatched. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Yoo is still a bit of a mystery but has shown real power, solid top control, and good cardio in what tape is available. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He does keep his hands low, which opens him up to counters, but his tools and upside are far better than Saragih\u2019s. The safest angle is betting the fight not to go the distance<\/strong>, as someone\u2019s getting clipped or finished. Yoo is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSerghei Spivac -125 vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta +105<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSpivac vs. Cortes Acosta is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, and I think we\u2019re getting value on Spivac due to his recent losses\u2014both of which came against elite competition. Spivac\u2019s ground game has steadily improved, and that\u2019s where he\u2019ll want this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cortes Acosta will have the advantage on the feet, but this is a big step up in competition for him. If Spivac gets it to the mat, especially early, Acosta\u2019s lack of grappling off his back should be exposed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Both guys can gas, but Spivac\u2019s pressure and top control should win the battle of fatigue. I\u2019ll take Spivac to get it to the ground and find a finish<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWang Cong -350 vs Ariana Lipski da Silva +275<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCong vs Lipski da Silva is a closer matchup than the odds suggest. Cong came into the UFC with hype and showcased solid kicks and striking in her first two fights, but she\u2019s still raw and leaves herself open defensively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This isn\u2019t a favorable style matchup for her\u2014da Silva\u2019s biggest flaw is her takedown defense, but Cong doesn\u2019t have the grappling to exploit it like others have. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
On the feet, da Silva can absolutely hang with Cong and may even have the edge in power and experience. With the line too wide, I\u2019ll take da Silva as a live underdog to pull off the upset<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJosh Van -550 vs Bruno Silva +410<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nVan vs. Silva is likely to stay on the feet, and that heavily favors Van. Silva has speed and power, but his striking defense is a glaring weakness\u2014he gets hit far too often, and that\u2019s a major problem against someone like Van. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Van is one of the most active fighters on the UFC roster, going 6-1 in under two years, and his volume, output, and defense are all clearly superior. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While the price is steep, Van is a reliable parlay piece<\/strong>\u2014he should win this striking battle with cleaner technique and better composure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPatchy Mix -166 vs Mario Bautista +140<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMix vs. Bautista is a high-level matchup that pits Mix\u2019s well-rounded game against Bautista\u2019s grinding clinch style. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mix enters the UFC with a 20-1 record and all the tools\u2014great cardio, strong striking at range, excellent clinch work, and no glaring weaknesses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bautista has frustrated opponents by stalling fights in the clinch, but Mix is too dynamic and composed to let that work for long. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
At range, it\u2019s Mix all day, and while it may be close at times, Mix should land the cleaner shots and do enough to earn a win in his UFC debut<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKevin Holland -225 vs Vicente Luque +185<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLuque vs Holland is a wild-card matchup between two unpredictable fighters with finishing power and submission skills. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Holland\u2019s performances vary drastically\u2014some nights he\u2019s locked in and dangerous, other nights he\u2019s passive and unfocused. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Luque is coming off a quick submission win but has absorbed a ton of damage over his career, raising serious durability concerns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
With both guys capable of pulling off a sub or landing a knockout shot, the safest read here is that this fight doesn\u2019t go the distance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJoe Pyfer -395 vs Kelvin Gastelum +310 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJoe Pyfer brings fight-ending power every time he steps in the cage, but the concern is whether he can manage his gas tank if the fight goes past the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He gassed badly in the Hermansson fight and paid the price, though he bounced back with a first-round KO in his next outing\u2014so his cardio remains a question mark. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kelvin Gastelum is tough as nails, has solid striking, and has never been knocked out in his career, but he continues to struggle with weight cuts and hasn\u2019t looked elite lately. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His win over Daniel Rodriguez didn\u2019t show much to be excited about. If Pyfer can manage his pace, he has all the upside and finishing potential here\u2014 he\u2019s the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKayla Harrison -625 vs Julianna Pena +455 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis fight is all about Kayla Harrison\u2019s grappling. If she\u2019s able to secure takedowns and establish top control, it\u2019s going to be a long night for Pe\u00f1a. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Harrison\u2019s judo and submission skills are elite, and once she's on top, she dominates. Pe\u00f1a has some wrestling of her own, but her control and ground-and-pound don\u2019t match up to Harrison\u2019s strength or positioning. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
On the feet, Pe\u00f1a might have a slight edge, but she\u2019s low volume and lacks knockout power. I thought she was fortunate to get the decision win over Pennington last time out\u2014she won\u2019t be so lucky here. Harrison gets it done<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC 316 Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t see what changes in this rematch. Merab walked O\u2019Malley down, and used his non-stop\u00a0clinch and wrestling to get the decision win, and it\u2019s like Merab is only getting better. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He just\u00a0beat Umar in an insanely competitive fight, and O\u2019Malley hasn\u2019t fought since their first fight, and\u00a0 he\u2019s been dealing with injuries, and honestly, I think other distractions outside the octagon with other business opportunities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Now, he says his Dad is going to be in his corner as a 60th birthday present, and that\u2019s a huge red flag when a fighter has a family member in his corner (see Kurt\u00a0Holobaugh last week). <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
O\u2019Malley has the length and power advantage, but with Merab\u2019s\u00a0smothering style that doesn\u2019t stop for 5 rounds, I see another Merab decision win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35322"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35322\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35816,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35322\/revisions\/35816"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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