Tecia Pennington -325 vs Luana Pinheiro\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRaquel Pennington should be too sharp and well-rounded for Luana Pinheiro in this\u00a0matchup. Pennington holds clear advantages in striking and speed, and her recent\u00a0 performances\u2014nearly beating Ricci in her return and following it up with a win over\u00a0Carla Esparza\u2014show she's still at the top of her game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, Pinheiro has\u00a0 dropped three straight and looked uninspired, even getting out-struck by Gillian\u00a0Robertson, who\u2019s far from elite in that department. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pennington\u2019s experience\u00a0 against top-tier opponents, combined with her pressure and cardio, should carry\u00a0 her to a clear decision win. I like Pennington to win straight up<\/strong>, and if you're hunting\u00a0for value, Pennington by decision<\/strong> is a strong lean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHyun Sung Park -180 vs Carlos Hernandez +150\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHyun Sung Park enters this fight undefeated, but his resume is filled with low-level\u00a0competition, and it\u2019s hard to gauge how good he really is. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While his grappling is\u00a0 solid, he hasn\u2019t been tested by anyone near the level of Carlos Hernandez, who\u00a0 recently showed he can hold his own on the mat by getting top position against\u00a0Tsuruya\u2014one of the more respected wrestlers in the division. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The recent trend of\u00a0Road to UFC graduates struggling under the UFC lights adds even more concern\u00a0 around backing Park. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hernandez may not be elite anywhere, but he\u2019s tough, well rounded, and battle-tested, making him a live underdog here. The value is clearly\u00a0on Hernandez, and he\u2019s worth a shot at plus money<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDenise Gomes -575 vs Elise Reed +425<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDenise Gomes is a rightful heavy favorite in this matchup, with clear advantages in\u00a0power, physicality, and versatility. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Elise Reed leans heavily on her striking but lacks\u00a0any real grappling threat, and her recent win over a 42-year-old Jessica Penne\u00a0doesn\u2019t inspire much confidence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gomes should be able to control the exchanges\u00a0 on the feet and dominate the clinch when needed. While a finish isn\u2019t out of the\u00a0question, Reed is durable enough to hang around, making Gomes by decision the\u00a0best betting angle<\/strong>. Expect a one-sided, methodical performance from Gomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGet $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC Fight Night & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Luana Santos -170 vs Tainara Lisboa +142<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLuana Santos being priced as a -170 favorite feels like a clear overreaction,\u00a0 especially given her loss to Casey O\u2019Neil, who came into that fight on a two-fight\u00a0skid and isn\u2019t exactly elite. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tainara Lisboa may not have shown much on the feet,\u00a0but her ground game looked solid in her UFC debut, with plenty of control time and\u00a0effective takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a close, stylistic clash that should be much tighter than\u00a0 the odds suggest. It\u2019s a classic dog-or-pass situation, and the safest angle might\u00a0be targeting the over props. Both fighters are tough and durable, so look for this\u00a0one to go the distance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nYadier DelValle -470 vs Connor Matthews +360\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nYadier DelValle looked sharp and composed in his Contender Series win,\u00a0showcasing clean striking, vicious elbows in the clinch, and strong durability in a\u00a0wild back-and-forth scrap. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s well-rounded and aggressive, and this matchup\u00a0against Connor Matthews feels like a clear showcase opportunity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Matthews\u00a0hasn\u2019t shown UFC-level skill, has been knocked out in both of his UFC\u00a0appearances, and struggles with durability and defensive awareness. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
DelValle\u00a0should pressure early and overwhelm him with volume and power. DelValle by\u00a0knockout is the most logical path<\/strong> and the bet to target here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJared Gordon -122 vs Thiago Moises +102\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThiago Moises bounced back strong in his last fight against Trey Ogden, looking in\u00a0 fantastic shape and showing improved striking with sharp leg kicks and solid\u00a0output. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While his striking defense still leaves openings, his grappling remains a\u00a0 major weapon, and he can control rounds if he gets the fight to the mat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jared\u00a0Gordon is durable and tough, but he doesn\u2019t have the same level of strength of\u00a0competition, and he certainly doesn\u2019t have the quality of wins. His last 2 wins are\u00a0 over retired Mark Madsen, and retired Leonardo Santos. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gordon will try and clinch\u00a0 and work Moises against the fence, but if Moises can avoid getting clipped early\u00a0and mix in his grappling, he has the tools to edge out a win. At plus money, Moises is a tempting underdog<\/strong> with a clear path to victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMatheus Camilo -230 vs Gabe Green +190\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMatheus Camilo may be a flashy striker, but laying this kind of chalk on a fighter\u00a0who hasn\u2019t faced UFC-level competition is a red flag. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s shown decent offensive\u00a0 skills, but also gave up significant control time in his last fight, raising questions\u00a0about his ability to manage pressure over three rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gabe Green is coming off a long layoff and two losses, but those came against Bryan Battle and Ian Garry\u2014far\u00a0 tougher opponents than anyone Camilo has seen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This should be a stand-up affair,\u00a0and Green\u2019s edge in power, experience, and toughness gives him a real shot to pull\u00a0the upset. All the value is on Green at +190<\/strong>, and he\u2019s the side to back in this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMelquizael Costa -170 vs Julian Erosa +142\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJulian Erosa may be riding a three-fight finishing streak, but his defensive flaws\u00a0 continue to show\u2014his hands are low, his chin is questionable, and he leaves too\u00a0many openings for opponents to exploit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Melquizael Costa is a step up from the\u00a0fighters Erosa has recently beaten and has the tools to make those mistakes\u00a0costly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Costa\u2019s kicking game should be a major factor here, and as long as he can\u00a0keep the fight standing and avoid Erosa\u2019s opportunistic submissions, he has the striking edge to control this matchup. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Erosa\u2019s chaotic style makes him dangerous,\u00a0but it also makes him vulnerable. Costa is the cleaner, more composed fighter<\/strong> and\u00a0should get the job done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNursulton Ruziboev -298 vs Dustin Stoltzfus +240\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPretty easy handicap here. Ruziboev will have the longer reach, and\u00a0 bigger striking advantage for sure. Stoltzfus is coming off a KO win, but it\u00a0was against Barriault who decided to stand in the pocket and trade\u00a0haymakers, and Ruziboev isn\u2019t going to do that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If he goes on the ground,\u00a0Stoltzfus will have the advantage, but Stoltzfus puts himself in bad\u00a0 positions on the feet, he lunges in and leaves his chin open, and I don\u2019t see\u00a0it going well for him. Ruziboev is the pick by KO<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMairon Santos -142 vs Sodiq Yusuff +120\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nYusuff has lost 2 in a row, and the durability has to be in question after he\u00a0got knocked out by Diego Lopes in his last fight, but he\u2019s moving up a\u00a0weight division and I think that should help him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mairon Santos even said\u00a0he thought he lost his last fight in a split decision win, and before that he\u00a0 knocked out Kaan Ofli who is terrible at the UFC level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Yusuff will have to\u00a0throw more volume in this one, but this is a big stepdown in competition\u00a0 where I don\u2019t think he\u2019ll be too worried about Santos\u2019s power. The\u00a0underdog is the play here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRodolfo Bellato -535 vs Paul Craig +400<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBellato by KO. He\u2019s big, strong, and powerful, and his biggest weakness is\u00a0 his striking defense, but that\u2019s not a worry against Paul Craig who doesn\u2019t have striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His only path to victory is a submission, but he can\u2019t wrestle,\u00a0and all Bellato has to do is not end up on the ground in a grappling battle,\u00a0and he\u2019ll crush Craig on the feet. Easy pick for me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Burns is 40 years old, and way past his prime. He was beating JDM who\u00a0 just won the Championship, but JDM broke his arm in the first round, and\u00a0 after that Sean Brady beat Burns handily. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His cardio isn\u2019t there, his striking\u00a0 isn\u2019t there, and he\u2019s known for his ground game, but he has 1 submission\u00a0win in the last 6 years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Morales is undefeated, and looks like the real deal\u00a0as he\u2019s 25 years old, and he\u2019s gotten better each fight. His striking is\u00a0getting really good, and he has good takedown defense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a 5 round\u00a0fight, I don\u2019t see Burns having cardio to win over 5 rounds, Morales should\u00a0win, probably by KO<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34841"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34841\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34842,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34841\/revisions\/34842"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31419"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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