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<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\nPGA Championship Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Last week we were treated to a new venue to host a PGA Tour event as the Truist Championship\u2019s usual host, Quail Hollow, was gearing up to host this week\u2019s PGA Championship.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That gives us much deeper course history to look at than normal when it comes to major championships as the field does get to play this course every year (at least the true contenders anyway).<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The track has also hosted the PGA Championship back in 2017, where Justin Thomas prevailed, as well as the President\u2019s Cup in 2022.\u00a0So again, plenty of past performance data to make sense of.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Quail Hollow is a tough track as the course usually ranks among the hardest the players face all season.\u00a0 The course can stretch to just over 7,600 yards, playing to only a par-71 with the players facing more than half of their approach shots from over 175 yards.\u00a0Unlike last week, that puts a premium on distance off the tee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If you miss the fairway, players will be greeted by rough measuring 2.75 inches to start the week and likely reaching 4\u201d by Sunday.\u00a0Green complexes are tricky and very fast while the finishing three-hole stretch, known as the Green Mile, can present great drama to end the tournament.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In fact, the par-4 18th<\/sup> hole ranked as the single toughest hole of all 900+ holes played on Tour last year averaging a full half-stroke over par.\u00a0The 17th<\/sup> ranked 24th<\/sup> and the 16th<\/sup> ranked 32nd<\/sup>, again, out of 900+ holes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTo win, players need to take advantage of the par 5s and hang on for par on the remaining holes which will put you right in line with typical winning scores here.\u00a0Last year Rory won his 4th<\/sup> title on this golf course with a winning score of 17-under, while Xander came in at 12-under and nobody else reached double-digits showing the anomaly of Rory\u2019s score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis week will be interesting to see what the score reaches as the area is experiencing an extremely wet week leading up to the event.\u00a0 On one hand, that could lead to soft greens which players normally will eat up.\u00a0On the other hand, it makes the already long golf course even longer, which likely eliminates 75% of the field from realistically contending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, by the time the tournament begins, dry, warm air is expected with temperatures in the mid-80s pretty much all week.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wind doesn\u2019t appear to be a major factor this week either, so it\u2019s really how will the first round play compare to later in the week?\u00a0It could play significantly longer early in the Championship and tournament organizers may adjust tee boxes accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Finally, the field is the largest of any of the major Championships at 156 players including 20 club professionals representing the PGA of America\u2019s best from around the country.\u00a0Notably if you are planning on betting \u2018the cut\u2019 market, the cut is set at the Top-70 and ties, unlike the standard TOUR events of only the Top-65.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Honestly, it is hard not to see one of the big three of Rory, Scottie or Bryson winning this week.\u00a0 Combined, the hold over a 50% implied chance of winning according to available odds by the sportsbooks.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Unfortunately, those same books have not adjusted the \u201cnext tier\u201d higher, price gouging at its finest, or rather an inability to properly set lines.\u00a0There is legitimately no value whatsoever in betting this tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That being said, let\u2019s talk who to bet because we know we are all going to do it\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
PGA Championship Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Justin Thomas +2200 | Top-10 +200 | Top-20 -110<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHe is the next most likely to win this event (sorry Jon Rahm fans), and thus getting better than 20-1 compared to the big three provides comparative value.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
JT is coming off his win at the RBC Heritage last month and nearly won again last week at the Truist Championship.\u00a0In this field, he ranks 4th<\/sup> in Total SG over the last six months, behind those previously mentioned favorites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJT has two major championships to his name, both PGA Championships.\u00a0His won his first in 2017 at this very venue so to say his vibes around here are high is an understatement.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While Rory has the best course history, JT has been solid with six starts at the Truist Championship (formerly Wells Fargo), finishing T26 or better five times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Thomas has the length to contend here and is one of the most creative players around the greens.\u00a0He ranks 5th<\/sup> in SG Around the Green and can also roll the rock coming in at 20th<\/sup> in SG Putting.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThen there is the fact that he is simply hot.\u00a0In his last four starts, JT has a win and two runner-ups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Patrick Cantlay +4500 | Top-10 +350 | Top-20 +150<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAnytime I bet on Cantlay, I always give the same warning. I never do well when betting on him. But with very few players having the length this week to truly contend, I do believe Cantlay is on that short list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Additionally, he is coming off a T4 finish last week in Philly along with a T13 in his start prior to that at the RBC Heritage.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He obviously hasn\u2019t won in a while, but his ball-striking numbers are elite, especially his long iron play.\u00a0 With Xander winning last year, Cantlay is probably the next best player yet to win a major.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
One stat that I rarely talk about, but I think it\u2019s worth mentioning, is called Approach Putt Performance.\u00a0 It\u2019s basically a measurement of lag putting.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
With approach shots being long this week, that means average proximity will obviously be further away from the hole.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Being able to comfortably two-putt all week will add a few strokes over the course of the tournament.\u00a0Cantlay ranks 2nd<\/sup> on Tour in that category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSee you next week for the Charles Schwab Challenge!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
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