In this year\u2019s\u00a0Kentucky Derby<\/strong>, the buzz surrounding a\u00a0longshot contender<\/strong>\u00a0is gaining traction, especially among seasoned handicappers. Marco D’Angelo offers a compelling betting preview highlighting the value and strategic considerations bettors should not overlook. <\/p>\n\n\n\n For fans of\u00a0Kentucky Derby longshot winners<\/strong>, this segment breaks down three major focal points: an underdog with promising potential, the race dynamics shaped by post positions, and a high-caliber horse who might not make it to the starting gate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Marco D’Angelo\u2019s pick for a\u00a0Kentucky Derby longshot<\/strong>\u00a0is horse number 13,\u00a0Publisher<\/strong>, listed at\u00a030-to-1<\/strong>\u00a0on the morning line. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite not yet winning a race, Publisher has demonstrated remarkable consistency, placing second or third in five of his seven career starts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Importantly, Publisher is a\u00a0closer<\/strong>\u2014a horse that performs strongest at the end of the race. Given expectations of a\u00a0fast early pace<\/strong>, this could play directly into his strength. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Historical trends in the Kentucky Derby have shown that such chaotic early speed often sets the stage for a\u00a0longshot closer<\/strong>\u00a0to steal the win in the final stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n Another layer of analysis compares Publisher to a more favored horse,\u00a0Sandman<\/strong>, who is priced at\u00a06-to-1<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Both horses competed in the same prep race, with Sandman edging out a win while Publisher was seen\u00a0closing in strong<\/strong>\u00a0toward the end. <\/p>\n\n\n\n D’Angelo points out that Publisher’s recent speed figures\u201481, 86, and 95<\/strong>\u2014are steadily improving. If Publisher makes another leap in performance, his odds offer\u00a0incredible value<\/strong>\u00a0compared to Sandman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Post positions can dramatically shape the outcome of the Kentucky Derby. This year, there are four true speed horses<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Citizen Bull and Neoquist are drawn on the inside, which forces them to accelerate aggressively to avoid getting boxed in by the massive 20-horse field. <\/p>\n\n\n\n East Avenue starts from the center and is perfectly positioned to challenge for the lead. Owen Almighty, on the far outside, must also charge ahead quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This setup will likely lead to fast fractions early<\/strong>, making it difficult for front-runners to conserve energy. When multiple speed horses clash upfront, it often results in a meltdown scenario<\/strong>, which creates perfect conditions for late closers<\/strong> like Publisher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n D’Angelo highlights a potential game-changer:\u00a0Baeza<\/strong>, horse number 21 and is in the field after being the first\u00a0also-eligible<\/strong>\u00a0entrant. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s been determined this elite contender will race as Baeza recently finished second in the\u00a0Santa Anita Derby<\/strong>\u00a0against the likely Kentucky Derby favorite,\u00a0Journalism<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Going to Bet the Kentucky Derby? Ride along with WagerTalk\u2019s Horse Racing Expert Marco D\u2019Angelo. Check out Marco’s full video playlist of Kentucky Derby previews here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n BUY MARCO’s PICKS! Marco actually Owns, Breeds and Races horses and has done so since 1986. So when Marco shares his selections you are getting information from someone that knows the sport from the Inside.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\nUnderrated Contender: Publisher at 30-to-1<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Comparative Value: Sandman vs. Publisher<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
2025 Kentucky Derby Post Position and Race Dynamics<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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The Enigma: Will Baeza Race?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
2025 Kentucky Derby Key Takeaways for Bettors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nKentucky Derby EXPERT PICKS: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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