Ivana Petrovic -250 vs Juliana Miller +205\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJuliana Miller is really bad, and it\u2019s still amazing that she won The Ultimate Fighter, and\u00a0with all due respect, I think it just shows how bad the competition was on that season.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
After beating Brogan Walker, she\u2019s lost to Veronica Hardy and Luana Santos, and she\u00a0was dominated in both. H<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
er striking is terrible, her striking defense is bad, and her\u00a0 wrestling and grappling is very basic. Petrovic isn\u2019t amazing, but she\u2019s just better\u00a0everywhere. She should be able to out wrestle and grapple Miller, especially after the\u00a0first round when Miller gasses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Petrovic will be stronger when they engage in close,\u00a0and with Miller\u2019s bad striking, Petrovic won\u2019t have any worry about closing the distance,\u00a0and landing her own strikes that will set up the takedowns. Petrovic is an easy pick for\u00a0me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThomas Petersen -250 vs Don\u2019tale Mayes +205\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is such a bad fight, I wouldn\u2019t recommend betting anything on it. Mayes is 33 years old, but fights like he\u2019s 53. He\u2019s slow, striking isn\u2019t very good, doesn\u2019t throw a lot of\u00a0strikes, and isn\u2019t good on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Petersen made it to UFC by winning on\u00a0Contender Series against an absolute tomato can, and he just doesn\u2019t look UFC ready\u00a0 as I think he looks like he\u2019s gotten worse over his 3 fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
We cashed big against him last fight when he got beat easily by Gaziev, and I noticed something that doesn\u2019t look\u00a0right about his face as it looks different from when he was on CS. Not sure what\u2019s going\u00a0 on, but he just doesn\u2019t look right. I can\u2019t bet on either of these guys, this is a pass<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGaston Bolanos -162 vs Quang Le +136\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNeither of these guys excite me, but I\u2019ll lean Bolanos as there\u2019s a chance he gets the\u00a0wrestling going, and makes this look easy on the ground over Le. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Le doesn\u2019t want to be\u00a0on the ground, he would like it to be on the feet, but even in a striking match I don\u2019t think\u00a0 he\u2019s that great.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He doesn\u2019t throw kicks, his strikes aren\u2019t creative, and he got knocked\u00a0out in the third in his last fight. His striking probably is a bit better than Bolanos, but not\u00a0 by much. Look for Bolanos to get this on the ground and grind out a win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGet $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC Fight Night & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gillian Robertson -290 vs Marina Rodriguez +235\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTough last 2 fights for Rodriguez as she\u2019s lost both by split decision, but what\u2019s worrying\u00a0 for her, and why this line is so wide is that Lucindo easily took Rodriguez down and\u00a0controlled her, and that\u2019s what Robertson loves to do. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
My concern with Gillian is that\u00a0 her level of competition hasn\u2019t been great, and the last time she fought a fighter that I\u00a0 would consider a big time UFC fighter, she lost to Tabatha Ricci. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rodriguez is going to\u00a0 be the better striker, but I would think it would only be a matter of time before Gillian\u00a0gets the takedown and does good work on the ground with strikes and submission\u00a0attempts. Robertson is the pick here, but at -290 it\u2019s way too wide so I\u2019ll pass on betting it<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAzamat Bekoev -320 vs Ryan Loder +250<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTwo fighters that like to fight on the ground here so it will be interesting to see who\u00a0 implements their game play the best, and I think Loder has a great chance to pull the\u00a0upset. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bekoev got the single leg takedown on Reese in his UFC debut and ground and\u00a0pounded him unconcious, but I just don\u2019t think he can do that to Loder fought Valentin in\u00a0TUF finals, and Loder completely dominated with the takedowns and ground game over\u00a0a tough opponent, and I loved his approach of not messing around and just getting the\u00a0takedowns right as the round started. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bekoev had 21 pro fights before making his UFC\u00a0 debut, and I\u2019m always worried about that, like\u2026if you\u2019re that good, you would\u2019ve been in\u00a0 the UFC a while ago. Bekoev is a better striker, but Loder isn\u2019t going to mess around on the feet for long, I love him at a +250 dog<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMiesha Tate -120 vs Yana Santos +100<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nVery strange fight here as I had completely forgotten about Meisha Tate. Tate is going\u00a0to want to take Santos down and lay on her for the entire fight, and if she does that\u00a0 she\u2019ll cruise. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Santos will want this on the feet, and if she can keep it on the feet she will\u00a0 probably cruise as her striking is much better. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Santos beat Chandler by decision in her\u00a0 last fight, but after what we saw from Chandler in her last fight, that\u2019s not a great win.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ever so slight lean to Santos in this one as I think she can stuff a few takedowns and\u00a0land some decent strikes on the feet to get the decision win, but it\u2019s not a strong\u00a0 opinion. This fight should be a great live betting opportunity<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMason Jones -575 vs Jeremy Stephens +425\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTwo fighters returning to the UFC, and I get why Jones is the favorite, but being this big\u00a0of a favorite is surprising. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s younger by 8 years, he\u2019s on a nice winning streak, he\u00a0 should be faster and more athletic, but I don\u2019t know how I rate winning some Cage\u00a0Warrior fights, especially when I watched him get punched and taken down briefly in his\u00a0 last fight against Pagani. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The case for Stephens is that he\u2019s been on steroids for a\u00a0 couple years while at bare knuckle, he\u2019s got one shot KO power, and he must be taking\u00a0 this fight because he believes he can beat Jones. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I just think Stephens is too old, and\u00a0he\u2019s won 1 MMA fight since 2018. Jones is the pick, but you can\u2019t lay -575 on him<\/strong> as\u00a0Stephens is always capable of landing a big shot that can change the fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSerhiy Sidey -155 vs Cameron Smotherman +130\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI haven\u2019t been high on Smotherman, but I was impressed with him against Hadley in his\u00a0last fight as I saw big improvements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking was better, he was agressive and\u00a0 moving forward, he showed good takedown defense and get ups, and he was in control\u00a0 from start to finish. If he fights like that, he\u2019ll win, and I\u2019ll pick him as the underdog here.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sidey isn\u2019t anything special, he doesn\u2019t throw good volume, and he\u2019s gone to split\u00a0 decision in both UFC fights winning one and losing the other. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I thought he looked bad\u00a0against Armfield as Armfield took him down a couple of times, Sidey didn\u2019t throw enough\u00a0volume in my opinion, and he was lucky to win. I think Smotherman will be confident\u00a0from the beginning<\/strong>, he\u2019ll control the action and win with his striking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMontel Jackson -205 vs Daniel Marcos +170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJackson has won his last 2 fights so quick, he\u2019s had less than 4 minutes of fight time in\u00a02.5 years, and his power has certainly been on display in those fights, but we haven\u2019t\u00a0got to see what he can do in 3 rounds against a great fighter, and I think Marcos is really\u00a0good. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s 17-0 so I\u2019m not going out on a limb, but I like his striking, durabiliity and the\u00a0 way he can control the pace and flow of the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He has good leg kicks, and I thought\u00a0 his last fight against Yanez was a great test for him as Yanez has lightning quick strikes on the feet, and Marcos was able to get the better of him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I just have too many\u00a0questions about Jackson if he doesn\u2019t get the early KO so I\u2019ll take Marcos to win at\u00a0 +170<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDaniel Rodriguez -125 vs Santiago Ponzinibbio +105\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m not making accusations here, but I\u2019ll just say that Ponzinibbio is 38 years old, and\u00a0 he\u2019s had big cardio issues in the past, and then all of sudden he looked more ripped,\u00a0and he had plenty of energy at the end of the fight against Harris where he got the 3rd\u00a0 round KO\u2026but I\u2019m sure it was just him working hard in the gym. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If that version of Ponz\u00a0 shows up, he\u2019ll beat D-Rod who I think is almost a shot fighter. He\u2019s 38 as well, and he just barely beat Alex Morono who absolutely was a shot fighter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He just doesn\u2019t have\u00a0the power or stamina anymore, and while he\u2019ll have success on the feet in round 1, I\u00a0 think Ponz, on his new diet and work regimine, will pull away in the 2nd and 3rd. Ponz\u00a0at this price is a solid bet<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBo Nickal -305 vs Reinier de Ridder +245\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRidder has submitted both his UFC opponents, but he struggled early against\u00a0 Meerschaert before getting the last sub, and Kevin Holland pulled his no-show act in a\u00a0 joke of a performance so I haven\u2019t been super impressed with him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
We know about\u00a0Nickal\u2019s wrestling, but last fight against Paul Craig he stood and traded strikes for 3\u00a0 rounds so I don\u2019t know what his plan is going to be. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Ridder tries to shoot on Nickal,\u00a0Bo will immediately snap into wrestling mode, and I don\u2019t see Ridder getting him down\u00a0 to get his submission game working. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
On the feet, I think it\u2019s just two guys who aren\u2019t\u00a0 good strikers, so I wonder if we see Nickal get back to his wrestling ways in this one.\u00a0Ridder is a great submission fighter, but his wrestling isn\u2019t on Nickal\u2019s level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I just can\u2019t\u00a0bet on Nickal at this price because if he tries to just strike again, he\u2019s not going to look\u00a0 like a -305 fighter, it will look like an even fight. No bets for me pre-fight, I\u2019ll wait for live\u00a0 lines<\/strong> so I can see what Nickal\u2019s strategy is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m a big Sandhagen fan, and he gave Umar all he could handle in the last fight, and he\u00a0 was the better striker in that fight, but the wrestling of Umar was just too much. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
On the\u00a0 feet, Cory is going to be longer, and he\u2019ll have more success with the striking as he can\u00a0 strike at range, and Fig will have to get inside the jabs and kicks, easier said than done.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Fig is too low volume to damage up Sandhagen so I think he\u2019ll eventually try and\u00a0 wrestle, but I just don\u2019t think he\u2019s fast enough at this point in his career to get\u00a0 Sandhagen down, hold him there, and do damage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In Fig\u2019s last fight against Petr Yan,\u00a0you could see Yan pull away the later the fight went on, and I see the same thing\u00a0happening here. Sandhagen is a fine parlay piece<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34646","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34646"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34646\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34650,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34646\/revisions\/34650"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34649"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34646"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34646"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34646"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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