Nora Cornolle -198 vs Hailey Cowan +175\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCowan is a Dana White favorite as he gave her a contract that she didn\u2019t deserve on CS\u00a0in a fight she barely won, and she came into UFC and lost her debut, and has then\u00a0 withdrawn from 2 fights since then. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She clinches, but isn\u2019t great, she strikes some, but\u00a0 again, isn\u2019t great, and I just can\u2019t see what upside she has. Cornolle is coming off a loss\u00a0 to Calvacanti, but I think Calvacanti is pretty good, and she showed her striking is above\u00a0 average, and she was able to fight back against Cornolle\u2019s clinch and wrestling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That\u00a0 being said, it was a split decision so Cornolle was very close to getting the win, and I\u00a0 think she\u2019s going to be just a bit better with the wrestling\/clinch\/takedowns here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cowan\u00a0probably has a bit better striking, but it\u2019s close and with these rounds that will be close, I\u00a0think Cornolle banks at least 2 of them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The over 2.5 rounds here will be juicy, but it\u2019s a\u00a0parlay piece<\/strong> as both woman are durable and have good cardio so I don\u2019t see a finish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMarco Tulio -340 vs Tresean Gore +270\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGore is 2-2 in the UFC, but his wins are against Fremd when he was losing and pulled\u00a0 off a miracle guillotine, and against Trocoli who hadn\u2019t fought in 3 years, and then fought\u00a0Shara Magomedov and Gore in the span of a few months and got finished in both as he\u00a0didn\u2019t look like he cared at all so Gore\u2019s wins aren\u2019t impressive, and he\u2019s only fought twice in the last 2.5 years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tulio came off of CS, and while we like fading CS guys that\u00a0 we don\u2019t think are UFC ready, Tulio absolutely is UFC ready as he did what he was\u00a0supposed to in his debut and KO\u2019d Potieria in the first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tulio\u2019s striking is fantastic, all he\u00a0has to do is keep it on the feet for just a little bit and his striking will get the better of\u00a0Gore whose striking is not good. Tulio by KO in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSumaderji -218 vs Mitch Raposo +180\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m not that high on Sumaderji, but I\u2019m even more not high on Raposo. To sum it up,\u00a0 he\u2019s undersized with limited weapons and bad fight IQ, and even though he went to split\u00a0decision with Andre Lima who has looked really good since then, he had plenty of\u00a0opportunities to win that fight and he just didn\u2019t know what to do. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Maderji has lost 3\u00a0straight, but to opponents better than Raposo, including the insane fight against Schnell\u00a0 where he fought with a torn ACL. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Maderji has 7 career losses, none by KO, and 6 by submission so if he doesn\u2019t get submitted he\u2019s winning fights, and Raposo isn\u2019t a great\u00a0submission fighter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This fight is probably really close, but in the end Maderji is the play<\/strong>,\u00a0but at -218 it\u2019s too pricey so I\u2019ll stay away from this fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMichael Oleksiejczuk -192 vs Sedriques Dumas +160\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nOlekseijczuk has lost 4 out of 5 fights, and 3 of them were by submission as his ground\u00a0 game is pretty bad. He actually got a little bit of wrestling and clinch work going in the\u00a0 3rd round against Bullet, but Bullet\u2019s takedown defense and wrestling is non-existent.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Olekseijczuk wants to strike, but I think he\u2019s going to have trouble getting Dumas to\u00a0 stand and bang with him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dumas is a pretty boring fighter, but he will clinch and wrestle for 3 rounds, and while he makes some dumb decisions in and out of the octagon, I like\u00a0his style to be a problem for Olekseijczuk in this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
At plus money, I get the much\u00a0better wrestler against a guy who has showed over and over again he struggles against\u00a0wrestlers so this is a good plus money dog<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nYou\u2019re never going to feel confident betting\u00a0on Dumas, but this price doesn\u2019t reflect the fighting style differences IMO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Julian Erosa -360 vs Darren Elkins +285<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI can\u2019t believe Elkins is still fighting, and winning in the UFC. His fights are absolute\u00a0 train wrecks as there will be wild striking, wild grappling exchanges, and lots of blood if\u00a0the fight lasts longer than a minute. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s won 2 in a row by sheer will and determination\u00a0over Pineda and Brown, but I think Erosa is too dangerous for his wild style. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Elkins is a warrior, but he leaves a lot of openings if the opponent has the stamina and the ability,\u00a0and Erosa certainly has the ability as he\u2019s coming off of 2 first round submission wins\u00a0 against decent opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Erosa is chiny as his last 4 losses are by KO, but Elkins\u00a0 doesn\u2019t have the one shot KO power, it\u2019s more of a forward pressure, brawling style.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Erosa is more technical, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if he makes it 3 straight submission\u00a0 wins as Elkins will put his neck in dangerous situations. Erosa is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nChase Hooper -700 vs Jim Miller +500\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThe line is pretty crazy here, but I get it. Hooper has looked good in his last 3 fights and\u00a0 the move up a weight division has made a big difference, but let\u2019s not overreact to\u00a0choking out Borshchev who has no ground game, and then submitting old Clay Guida.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jim Miller is older, but he\u2019s tough as nails, and he has the tools to beat Hooper. He\u2019s\u00a0 won 6 out of 8 fights, and although he took a beating against King Green, he broke his\u00a0 hand in the first and was a sitting duck. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He rebounded with a devastating guilly against\u00a0 Jackson, and as good as Hooper has looked, Miller has the early power to get the KO,\u00a0 and he can submit just about anybody. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Does he have the stamina to keep up after a\u00a0 round or round and a half, probably not as Hoopers cardio is great. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think you can get\u00a0 a great price on Miller ITD as that\u2019s his path to victory, and Hooper can leave his chin\u00a0 open. I can\u2019t lay -700 on Hooper as good as he\u2019s looked, so the only way to play this fight is Miller by finish with a sprinkle<\/strong>, but if you don\u2019t believe in Miller just lay off and\u00a0move on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nVirna Jandiroba -148 vs Yan Xianoan +124\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWinner probably gets a title shot, and I think Jandiroba\u2019s wrestling is just too much for\u00a0 almost everyone in this divison, Xianoan included. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jandiroba is predictable, and that\u2019s\u00a0 what we like in betting is knowing what we\u2019re going to get. Jandiroba is going to have to\u00a0 get through the reach of Yan, which won\u2019t be easy, and Yan will certainly be expecting the takedowns, but I don\u2019t think she can stop all of them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Weili\u2019s wrestling is elite, and\u00a0Yan struggled mightily against her, and I thought Ricci let Yan off the hook by not\u00a0 attempting more takedowns and wrestling, and there\u2019 no way Jandiroba will not wrestle\u00a0all fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s not an exciting fighting style, but it\u2019s profitable as we\u2019ve cashed 4 bets in a\u00a0 row on Jandiroba, and I think we can make it 5 in a row here. Jandiroba with her\u00a0wrestling will get the win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSean Woodson -155 vs Dan Ige +130<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNice step in competition for Woodson here against Ige who\u2019s lost 3 out of 4, but his last\u00a0 2 losses were to Lerone Murphy who\u2019s making a push for a title shot, and a loss to\u00a0Lopes when Ige literally took the fight on 6 hours notice the day of. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Woodson, like\u00a0 always, is going to have the massive height and reach advantage, but Ige will certainly\u00a0 be faster on the feet so it\u2019s just a matter of who\u2019s strength will prevail. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think both guys\u00a0 are going to be wearing damage the longer this fight goes on as Woodson\u2019s kicks and\u00a0 jabs will find their home, but Ige is a dog who will eat Woodson\u2019s shots so he can get\u00a0 inside to land his own shots. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The wildcard could be if Ige lands a takedown, which he\u00a0 can do, but against the bigger Woodson, it\u2019s going to be tough. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m an Ige fan, I think his speed and aggression is going to be a bit too much as Woodson\u2019s strikes can be telegraphed and I think Ige can move and counter with success. This fight will be close,\u00a0I think it\u2019s a sneaky one to go the distance, but I\u2019ll lean the underdog here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNikita Krylov -192 vs Dominick Reyes +160\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKrylov all day in this one. Reyes has won 2 straight after taking 1.5 years off, but they\u00a0 were against Jacoby, a pure striker, and Anthony Smith who was an emotional wreck\u00a0 after losing his best friend shortly before the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Krylov isn\u2019t going to stand and go\u00a0 strike for strike with Reyes, no chance. He\u2019s going to get the takedowns like he did\u00a0against Spann and Oezdemir, and while I worry about a 2 year layoff, I don\u2019t worry\u00a0 about his game plan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Reyes can strike with power, but not off his back and that\u2019s where\u00a0I think Krylov gets this fight and dominates. Krylov is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJean Silva -325 vs Bryce Mitchell +260\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nStriker vs Wrestler in this one, and I have the striker winning. Silva has lethal striking as\u00a0 he\u2019s knocked out all 4 UFC opponents, and the advantage that he will have in the striking department is going to be massive. Mitchell wants to wrestle, and he has awful\u00a0 striking defense as we saw him get knocked in truly scary fashion against Josh Emmett.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His hands are way too lose, he doesn\u2019t have a good guard, and his footwork is sloppy,\u00a0and if Silva keeps this on the fight, it\u2019s only a matter of time before he gets the KO shot.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The key to this fight is if Mitchell can get it to the ground and keep it there, and I don\u2019t\u00a0 think he\u2019s going to be able to for all 3 rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Silva showed good takedown defense\u00a0 against Jourdain where Jourdain got him down for a few seconds, but Silva used solid\u00a0technique to get up, and on the break he KO\u2019d Jourdain with a sick uppercut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He trains\u00a0with the Fighting Nerds, and he\u2019s going to get plenty of practice with wrestling and\u00a0takedown defense against Caio Borralho and company leading up to the fight.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mitchell\u2019s last 2 losses were against guys who have big time power in Emmmett and\u00a0Topuria, and I put Silva in that category. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
When Emmett and Topuria pressured him, and\u00a0stuffed just a takedown or two, Mitchell was lost so his margin of error is next to 0. Silva all day in this one, probably by KO<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nYair Rodriguez -190 vs Patricio Pitbull +160<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFirst of all, the height difference is going to be massive. Pitbull is usually the shorter\u00a0 fighter, but Yair is 5 inches taller, and that\u2019s going to be a lot for Pitbull to overcome.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pitbull is a legend, but his success in the past has been based on taking the shots his\u00a0 opponent gives him, and returning with a bit more volume and aggression, but he\u2019s 37\u00a0now, and his last 3 fights haven\u2019t looked great. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He lost to Sergio Pettis 3 fights ago\u00a0 when he was compromised with a shoulder injury, then he got knocked out in Rizin, and\u00a0then he got a win against Jeremy Kennedy, but I don\u2019t put a lot into that win. Kennedy\u00a0had just had a baby before that fight (Fade The Baby Theory), and he gassed in the\u00a0 third after 2 lackluster rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Also, Pitbull used 2 low blows to take long breaks to get\u00a0 his energy back, one of the low blows was in round 2 where Kennedy clearly had the\u00a0 momentum, and Pitbull milked it for all it was worth. Pitbull is low volume and hittable\u00a0 these days, and I think Yair takes advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Yair has really good striking, and even\u00a0 though he\u2019s coming off of 2 losses, one was to Volk, and the other was to Ortega where\u00a0Yair was sparking Ortega with the striking, but it looked like Yair sustained a core injury\u00a0as he grabbed his mid-section, and then slowed down immensely and got submitted in\u00a0the third, but make no mistake, before that Yair had Ortega busted and bloodied up.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pitbull can\u2019t wrestle and grapple like Ortega, and he certainly isn\u2019t 2023 Volk caliber at\u00a0 this point. Yair\u2019s length is going to be too much of a problem on the feet, and I don\u2019t see\u00a0Pitbull getting through those jabs and kicks to get his offense going. Yair is the play for\u00a0me in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPaddy Pimblett -162 v Michael Chandler +136\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThere are several ways to look at Chandler I think. You can say he\u2019s lost 4 out of 5, with\u00a0 his only win being the corpse of Tony Ferguson. Or you could say, he\u2019s lost to Gaethje,\u00a0Poirier and Oliveira twice, all absolute elite beasts and Paddy ain\u2019t on that level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
To be honest, I\u00a0just think Chandler\u2019s bestdays are behind him, and I thought he looked like he had fallen\u00a0 off a cliff against Oliveira except . <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sadly for him, he held on hope that he would get the\u00a0Conor McGregor fight, and he went a long time without a fight, and I think father time\u00a0 has caught up with him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking was wild and inaccurate against Oliveira, and he\u00a0was taken down with ease over and over. Paddy has a good ground game, and I don\u2019t\u00a0 think he\u2019s going to have that much trouble getting Chandler down and working him on\u00a0 the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Chandler has cardio for days, but he eats so many strikes in pretty much all\u00a0of his fights, and I think the wear and tear is catching up with him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s going to be wild\u00a0 and unpredictable, but I think Paddy has the tools to deal with it, and once he gets it on\u00a0the ground I like him to control Chandler and grind out rounds. Pimblett for me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC 314 Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I need to see what Volk looks like this week in the press conference, weigh ins, faceoffs,\u00a0etc. He\u2019s been open about having alcohol issues when he\u2019s not in training camp, it\u2019s\u00a0taken a toll on his body, and he\u2019s coming off of 2 losses where he got finished early in\u00a0the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Granted, it was to Topuria and Makhachev, but this is the guy who almost beat\u00a0 Makhachev in their first fight, and he dominated and KO\u2019d Yair Rodriguez. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If we get the\u00a0 Volk who\u2019s even 90% of who he was in his prime, I think he wrecks Lopes. If he\u2019s too\u00a0old, and the wear and tear has caught up to him, he\u2019s a sitting duck. Lopes is good, but\u00a0 he has big holes in his game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking is good, but his striking defense isn\u2019t great, and what are his big wins? Beating Dan Ige in a sparring match when Ige took the fight\u00a0on 6 hours notice, and Brian Ortega when Ortega looked like he\u2019d rather be anywhere\u00a0else than in a fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s a wait and see for me in this fight<\/strong>, if Volk looks and sounds back\u00a0to normal, he\u2019s a slam dunk. If he doesn\u2019t, it\u2019ll be a pass for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34273","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34273"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34273\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34274,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34273\/revisions\/34274"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20268"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34273"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34273"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34273"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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