Marquel Mederos -192 vs Austin Hubbard +160\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ll be taking overs in this fight as both guys aren\u2019t very exciting to me. Mederos had a\u00a0nice finish on CS, and he\u2019s had some good finishes on the regional scenes, but he\u00a0 made his debut against Quinones, and it was a snoozefest with a lot of clinch against\u00a0the fence, and not a lot of damage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t have high hopes for Hubbard to make this\u00a0exciting as his last 2 UFC fights have gone the distance, and even though he damaged\u00a0 up Hernandez on the feet pretty good, everyone damages up Hernandez and Hubbard\u00a0still lost the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Neither guy has amazing submissions, and their striking is meh, and I\u00a0do trust their cardio so everything sets up for a fight to go the distance<\/strong>. No opinion on\u00a0the outright winner, but I\u2019m certainly not laying -192 on Mederos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJamal Emmers -218 vs Gabriel Miranda +180\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI love this spot for Emmers coming off a loss. He\u2019s lost 2 out of 3, but the Jenkins loss\u00a0was a bad decision, and getting KO\u2019d by Landwehr isn\u2019t the worst loss ever. He has\u00a0good skills, espeically on the feet, and this is a guy who took Giga to a split decision in\u00a0his debut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Miranda is an exciting fighter who is kill or be killed, but he\u2019s been killed in 2\u00a0of his 3 UFC fights with his win being over Shane Young who is 0-4 in his last 4.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Miranda is super hittable, and I think it\u2019s only a matter of time before Emmers gets to the\u00a0 chin and finishes Miranda off. Emmers is the pick, I would also play Emmers ITD<\/strong> as\u00a0well when props come out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRafa Garcia -485 vs Vinc Pichel +370\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPichel is 42 years old, and he looked like it in his last fight. Credit to him for going the\u00a0 distance against Bonfim, but he has to be near the end of his career. He\u2019s fought twice in 3 years, and he just doesn\u2019t have the power or output to keep up it appears. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Garcia\u00a0is going to be too active on the feet, and probably in the wrestling department as well if\u00a0he chooses, but I think he\u2019ll just keep this on the feet and piece up the slower and older\u00a0Pichel from distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Pichel will be tough to finish so I like this fight to go the\u00a0distance, but Garcia is the easy pick here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGet $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC Fight Night & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Loopy Godinez -198 vs Julia Polastri +163\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ll just never understand why Godinez wants to be a striker when she\u2019s an elite wrestler\u00a0 with an elite wrestling background, but here we are. She\u2019s lost 2 straight to really good\u00a0 opponents, and she just seems to make fights way closer than they need to be. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She\u00a0 strikes and does ok, but if she would just mix in more takedowns, she would be really\u00a0 hard to figure out. This is a pretty big step down in competition for her as she lost to\u00a0Jandiroba and Dern, and now she gets Poalstri who barely won a split against McKenna\u00a0 in her last fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Polastri is strong in the clinch, but slow on the feet and I think\u00a0Godinez\u2019s speed is going to be difficult for Polastri to keep up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Even if Polastri initiates the clinch, I don\u2019t think she can hold Godinez there for long, and I don\u2019t see heer doing\u00a0 much damage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Betting on Loopy is frustrating because we know how talented she is\u00a0 physically she just doesn\u2019t seem to perform at 100% of her ability. I\u2019ll reluctantly take\u00a0her to win, but really the best way to play this fight is to go the distance. I don\u2019t see a\u00a0finish at all in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nChristian Rodriguez -170 vs Melquizael Costa +145\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRodriguez has a really good wrestling and ground game, and that\u2019s certainly his path to\u00a0victory here as Costa is good, not great on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m a Costa fan, I love his\u00a0aggressiveness and his willingness to put on exciting fights, and he\u2019ll definitely be the\u00a0better striker in this fight, but he\u2019s going to have to fight off the clinch and takedowns for\u00a03 rounds or get the finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He absolutely can finish by sub or KO, but in the end I think\u00a0 Rodriguez is going to be able to get inside and take away Costa\u2019s advantage on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Rodriguez wins, this is probably going the distance so I think if you\u2019re playing\u00a0Rodriguez, just play him to win by decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
D-Rod didn\u2019t finish Bashi who is in his early 20\u2019s and was making his UFC debut so I don\u2019t think he can finish Costa who is durable\u00a0 and has really good cardio. My heart will be rooting for Costa, but my bankroll will be\u00a0betting C-Rod<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAteba Gauthier -550 vs Jose Medina +410\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBoth of these guys are raw, and not polished, but Gauthier\u2019s power and athleticism is\u00a0going to be the difference. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Medina got a contract from CS simply because Dana White\u00a0 enjoyed watching him getting his ass kicked. Seriously. That happened. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He got his ass\u00a0kicked again over 3 rounds in his UFC debut, and I think it could happen again.\u00a0 Gauthier is a monster with great power and aggression, but he needs a lot of coaching\u00a0on his takedown defense, wrestling and such. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, his raw talent will be more than\u00a0 enough as the best compliment I can give Medina is that he\u2019s tough, and that\u2019s not\u00a0winning UFC fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Maybe there\u2019s a world where Gauthier almost finishes Medina in\u00a0 the first and gasses himself out, and Medina survives and wears him out over rounds 2\u00a0 and 3, but that\u2019s a live betting opportunity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gauthier should have the striking advantage\u00a0and power advantage, and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if he finishes Medina, who is terrible<\/strong>,\u00a0and I still can\u2019t believe Dana gave him a contract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nEdgar Chairez -340 vs CJ Vergara +270\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI have concerns about both fighters here. Chairez\u2019s only UFC win is against Lacerda\u00a0who got cut from the UFC, and Vergara has back to back losses against a striker, and\u00a0 then against a grappler. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Chairez had a war against Van in his last fight, but his cardio\u00a0fell off a cliff, and I can\u2019t lay -340 when I think he\u2019s going to be tired starting in round 2.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking should be better, but I wonder if Vergara can just out work Chairez for 3\u00a0 rounds and get a close decision win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019ll have to use his speed on the feed, and zap\u00a0 Chairez\u2019s energy early, and avoid the big shots, but I think there\u2019s a chance that\u00a0 happens. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Because of that, I can\u2019t bet Chairez at this number, but I don\u2019t like how\u00a0Vergara is hittable on the feet, and is coming off a KO loss. This fight is a pass for me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRonaldo Rodriguez -166 vs Kevin Borjas +140\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRonaldo certainly has that dog in him. He can put himself in bad positions like getting\u00a0 hit or getting put in submissions, but he just has that scrap to where he can get out of\u00a0them, and get his offense going. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Against Osbourne, he was knocked down, and almost\u00a0 submitted several times, but he reversed everything and ended up. His lack of defense\u00a0 will certainly catch up with him, but is Borjas that guy? I don\u2019t think so. Borjas has lost\u00a0both his UFC fights, and I just don\u2019t see the upside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking is ok, but he couldn\u2019t\u00a0finish his CS opponent, and he really doesn\u2019t have a good ground game as Josh Van\u00a0 was able to take him down, so where\u2019s the upside? <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rodriguez has holes in his game,\u00a0but he\u2019s 17-2 as a pro for a reason, and someone with limited weapons and upside just\u00a0 isn\u2019t going to get it done against someone like that. Rodriguez will get the win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDavid Martinez -395 vs Saimon Oliveira +310\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI haven\u2019t heard Oliveira\u2019s name in a while, and that\u2019s because he hasn\u2019t fought in over 2\u00a0 years. He won on CS in 2021 and he\u2019s only fought twice in the UFC, losing both. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The\u00a0last time we saw him, he got easily beat by Daniel Marcos, and he looked terrible to be\u00a0 honest. His striking was sloppy, kicks were lazy, and his defense didn\u2019t hold up as\u00a0 Marcos finished him, and that\u2019s the only finish for Marcos in his last 6 fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Martinez is\u00a0 making his debut, which makes me nervous, but he has good movement, really good\u00a0 leg kicks, and we ranked him as the best fighter on his night of CS. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He keeps his hands\u00a0a bit too low for my liking, but surely they\u2019ve worked on that. I just don\u2019t see Oliviera\u00a0 making huge improvements at age 33, I think Martinez cruises in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRaul Rosas -305 vs Vince Morales +245<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRosas is probably my favorite play on the card, it\u2019s an excellent parlay piece\u2026as long\u00a0 as Rosas wrestles and gets takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In his last fight against Aoriqileng, he kept the\u00a0 fight on the feet for quite a while, but he did mix in the takedowns, and he cruised to\u00a0 victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If he gets the takedowns from the beginning, he\u2019ll maul Morales on the ground\u00a0 and probably get the finish. If he wants to strike, it will be close, but Morales is so bad\u00a0right now, Rosas probably wins a striking match. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Morales is on his second UFC run, but\u00a0 it\u2019s not going well as he\u2019s dropped both his fights in his return, and he really hasn\u2019t been\u00a0 all that competitive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking has been awful, he\u2019s been getting hit on the feet, and\u00a0 he doesn\u2019t have a ground game to fall back on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He lost his last fight to a CS guy\u00a0 making his debut, and Lapilus put a clinic on him before that. Rosas could have an\u00a0easy day at the office if he wants to get this on the ground, but no matter what he does\u00a0 he should come away with the win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJoe Pyfer -550 vs Kelvin Gastelum +410\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGastelum has trouble making weight, and he really hasn\u2019t looked all that good recently.\u00a0 His win against D-Rod was a red flag as Rodriguez is old, and Gastelum struggled at times, and won the decision in lackluster fashion. His striking is good, but not terrifying\u00a0 as his last KO was in 2017. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I expect this fight to take place on the feet, but I wouldn\u2019t\u00a0 rush to lay -550 on Pyfer. Between CS and UFC, he\u2019s 5-1, but his loss was the one fight that went to decision when Hermansson survived the early barrage, and then wore\u00a0down Pyfer as he tired out, and Gastelum can do that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pyfer\u2019s recent finish over\u00a0 Barriault was nice, but before that he\u2019d been finishing some weak guys. I think if you\u2019re\u00a0 playing Pyfer, you play him by KO, but if Gastelum gets out of the first round, don\u2019t be\u00a0surprised if he has success striking Pyfer, and he can absolutely make rounds 2 and 3\u00a0interesting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This will be a pass for me<\/strong>, but it could be a great live betting situation if you see Pyfer not get the early finish and start to get a bit tired.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nManuel Torres -120 vs Drew Dober +100\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nEXPECT VIOLENCE!!! These guys will go to war on the feet in this one, and I love\u00a0Torres at basically a pick em coming off a loss. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Torres got a bit cocky with his style in\u00a0 his last fight, and he left his chin exposed and Bahamondes knocked him out pretty\u00a0easy with how exposed the chin was. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019ll make adjustments, and protect himself\u00a0 better, and I think he lights up Dober who has striking defense issues of his own. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dober\u00a0hasjust one win in his last 4 fights, and it was over Ricky Glenn, who is a plumber and\u00a0 part time fighter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Frevola knocked him out, Moicano beat him on the ground, and Silva\u00a0 put a massive cut on his eye that required a doctor's stoppage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s 36 years old and\u00a0all the wear and tear has caught up with him in my opinion. He can strike, but I don\u2019t think he\u2019s as terrifying as he used to be. I would be stunned if this fight goes the distance<\/strong>, I like Torres to get the KO win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Moreno had lost 2 in a row to Pantoja and Royval, but both were close split decisions,\u00a0 and then he fought Albazi and looked fantastic so I think he\u2019s back on track for a title run. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking is fantastic, his cardio is great, and he really put it on Albazi for 5\u00a0 rounds as he showed great defense with striking and takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Erceg has had a\u00a0 strange start to his UFC career as he beat Dvorak, Costa and Schnell and then he\u00a0 elevated to a title shot against Pantoja, and while he lost he looked great and I think we expected big things from him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, his next fight he got KO\u2019d by Kara-France in a\u00a0 stunner so maybe it was a little too much too soon for Erceg. He has decent striking,\u00a0 and a good clinch, but can he get it going against Moreno? I just don\u2019t see it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Moreno\u00a0has fought the best of the division for years, and I don\u2019t think Erceg is going to show him\u00a0 anything new. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Moreno\u2019s speed and striking accuracy will be too much, and I don\u2019t see\u00a0Erceg getting Moreno down<\/strong> and holding him there. Moreno by decision is the play for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34056","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34056"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34056\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34057,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34056\/revisions\/34057"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34056"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34056"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34056"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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