th<\/sup> edition being hosted at Memorial Park, the time of the year the tournament has fallen has changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWhen the tournament shifted to Memorial Park beginning with the 2020 COVID season, the Houston Open was scheduled in the fall and slated the week prior to the historic November edition of the Masters.\u00a0It was played again in the fall the following year.\u00a0Last year the tournament was moved back to its early spring position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
What\u2019s notable about this time of year is unlike what we saw during the Florida Swing, the rough is almost non-existent at less than 1.5\u201d tall, compared to the 3.5\u201d to 4\u201d which saw each week in Florida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, just like we saw during the Florida Swing, this tournament does not yield a low winning score as the winner has finished at 13-under, 10-under, 16-under and 12-under the last four years.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
A total of just seven players reached double-digits under par over the first three editions combined, while ten players bunched up last year to finish between 10 and 12-under.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
As tradition in Texas, much of that can be attributed by wind conditions, but it also may have something to do with the fact this is just a par 70, so going low in comparison to par, is always going to be more difficult. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
At over 7,400 yards, Memorial Park is the longest par 70 non-major on the PGA Tour schedule. It is long and thus players will face an above average number of mid to long irons this week.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
There are five par 3s at Memorial Park to go along with three par 5s which are all difficult and not necessarily automatic birdie looks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Scottie has been a regular at this event in the backyard of where he grew up, but this time, he is joined by THE PLAYERS Champion Rory McIlroy who is making his debut on this track.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
From there, it\u2019s a major drop-off in terms of consistency as evidenced by the Strokes Gained chart, quickly falling into mid-to-longshot range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
As it stands now, rain will likely make an impact on both Thursday and Friday.\u00a0Showers are forecasted Thursday morning before a steadier afternoon rain moves in.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Depending on the severity of the rain though, play should continue so long as water doesn\u2019t pool.\u00a0That system will remain in place into Friday in which thunderstorms, aka, delays are likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
A \u2018regular\u2019 rain generally doesn\u2019t bother players too much, it\u2019s the combination with wind that makes conditions very difficult.\u00a0Wind appears to be steady all four days in the 10-20 mph range, so I\u2019m not entirely certain of a tee time draw yet, but it would stand to make sense that the longer it takes for the rain to arrive on Thursday should give the AM wave a likely advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Houston Open Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Winner:<\/strong> Aaron Rai +2800 | Top-10 +280 | Top-20 +130<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nEasy to argue there are two favorites while everyone else falls into the mid-tier range, and you certainly don\u2019t need me to tell you to bet Scottie or Rory. But in sticking with players ranked in the Top-10 of the oddsboard, Aaron Rai is likely to get plenty of attention this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rai is coming in having posted three straight Top-15 finishes and has the benefit of being rested, choosing to skip last week\u2019s Valspar Championship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Though Rai is not \u2018long\u2019 by PGA Tour standards so you would think that would hurt him on this track, but that hasn\u2019t stopped him thus far with three starts and three Top-20 finishes.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He finished T19 in his debut in 2022 and T7 each of the last two years where he found his stride on the greens, gaining more than +8.0 strokes putting.\u00a0 Each of the four winners here have all finished inside the Top-5 SG Putting that week, so his comfort on the greens is a good omen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rai\u2019s ability to avoid getting into trouble at a track where par is a good score is a solid recipe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Winner:<\/strong> Maverick McNealy +5500 | Top-10 +500 | Top-20 +225<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGolf can be a fickle thing.\u00a0 After back-to-back finishes of T9 at the WM Phoenix Open and a runner-up at The Genesis Invitational, McNealy has now missed the cut in his last two starts in the Florida Swing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and at THE PLAYERS.\u00a0He was riding a nice combination of approach play with a hot putter, but both failed to show up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, his ceiling is high as evidenced by those two starts prior to the Florida Swing and oh yea, he won the RSM Classic in November.\u00a0When betting a field against proven winners like Scottie and Rory, potential and a high ceiling is exactly what\u2019s needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He also seems to have comfortability on this track. In three starts here, he is a perfect 3-for-3 with no worse than a T27 finish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
See you next week for the Valero Texas Open!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
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