Guram Kutateladze -425 vs Kaue Fernandes +330<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI thought Guram would be fighting for a UFC title at this point after making\u00a0 his debut against Gamrot, and getting the decision win in an amazing fight,\u00a0but he dropped his next 2 fights to Brener and Ismagulov, and it just doesn\u2019t seem like he\u2019s that interested in being a contender. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s had 3\u00a0fights since that 2020 fight against Gamrot, and his only win is against a guy making his UFC debut, but I expect him to win this one everywhere this\u00a0fight takes place. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Don\u2019t pay much attention to Fernandes\u2019s last fight as he\u00a0 beat Yahya, who\u2019s one of the worst fighters on the UFC roster, instead go\u00a0look at the Diakiese fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He lost a split, but he didn\u2019t do much on offense,\u00a0and Diakiese was able to take him down and neutralize him, and in round 3\u00a0Fernandes didn\u2019t have much gas left in the tank. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Guram has good\u00a0 movement, and good enough striking to keep Fernandes on the back foot,\u00a0and even though I\u2019ve watched Guram get tired late, Fernandes isn\u2019t the guy\u00a0to expose that weakness. If Guram is focused, this should be a schooling in the striking and wrestling. Guram is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNathan Fletcher -148 vs Caolan Loughran +124<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a striker vs grappler type of matchup as Loughran will want this to\u00a0 stay on the feet and Fletcher will try to get it to the ground. Honestly, I\u00a0don\u2019t really care who wins this fight, I\u2019m just taking this fight over 2.5 or to\u00a0go the distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
All 3 of Loughran\u2019s UFC fights have gone the distance as\u00a0 he\u2019s a decent striker, but in the UFC it\u2019s point fighting as opposed to big\u00a0knockouts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Loughran has a huge head with a granite chin so he\u2019s not getting knocked out by Fletcher, and he\u2019s a strong stocky guy who is going to be tough to takedown and next to impossible to submit as his only 2\u00a0 losses are by decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Fletcher is 9-1 as a pro, but not against great\u00a0 competition, he\u2019s not exactly a killer so I just don\u2019t see a finish in this one.\u00a0Take the overs<\/strong>, I don\u2019t care who wins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nShauna Bannon -175 vs Puja Tomar +145\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAgain, I don\u2019t care who wins, I\u2019ll be taking this fight to go the distance.\u00a0Tomar is valuable to UFC as she has a huge social media following in\u00a0India, and that\u2019s a valuable audience to UFC, and I didn\u2019t expect much from\u00a0 her in her debut, but give her credit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She was aggressive, threw solid\u00a0volume, and got the win against dos Santos who laid an egg. Bannon is\u00a0 kind of similar in that she isn\u2019t polished, but she\u2019ll give you 3 good rounds,\u00a0she\u2019ll throw volume, and land some shots, but she\u2019s not challenging for a\u00a0title. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Neither of these women hit hard enough to get the KO, and they don\u2019t\u00a0 know how to submit so I see almost no paths for a finish here. This fight to\u00a0 go the distance is probably my favorite parlay piece<\/strong> on the card.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGet $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC Fight Night & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Christian Leroy Duncan -550 vs Andrew Pulyaev +410\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPulyaev showed good cardio, good durability, solid body kicks, and good takedown defense on Contender Series, but his opponent underperformed,\u00a0and I think Duncan has the tools to cruise through this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Duncan is\u00a0coming off a loss to Gregory Rodrigues, but he had gotten 2 finishes before\u00a0 that, and Rodrigues was able to have success with takedowns and top\u00a0control, but I haven\u2019t seen Pulyaev implement that game plan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Duncan\u2019s\u00a0 striking is going to be better than anything Pulyaev has faced, and I see\u00a0Duncan doing some solid damage to Pulyaev. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pulyaev is tough, and he\u00a0 could make round 3 tough for Duncan, but I think CLD will win too many\u00a0 exchanges on the feet. Duncan by decision<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMarcin Tybura -130 vs Mick Parkin +110<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nParkin is undefeated, but that\u2019s been a bad thing in the UFC in 2025 as lots\u00a0 of guys have been handed their first loss. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Parkin has good striking on the\u00a0feet, and he\u2019s gotten better every fight as he trains with some top fighters,\u00a0but this fight is all about if Tybura gets it to the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Parkin keeps it on the feet, he\u2019ll have the volume to point his way to a decision win, but if\u00a0 Tybura gets on top, Parkin is big trouble. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tybura\u2019s only recent losses are\u00a0to Volkov and Aspinall (top ranked fighters), and a random arm bar loss to\u00a0Spivac when Tybura was on top. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tybura\u2019s top game is devastating, and I\u00a0 don\u2019t think Parkin can get up too many times if he gets taken down. This is\u00a0 big step up for Parkin as he\u2019s fought Usman, Brzesi, Machado, and Pogues in the UFC, I just think Tybura only needs to get this down once before a finish is possible. I\u2019ll take Tybura<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLoneer Kavanaugh -410 vs Felipe Dos Santos +320\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKavanaugh looks to be the real deal coming off of Contender Series, and\u00a0he gets a step up in competition in Dos Santos here who has lost 2 out of\u00a0 3, but to Kape and Lima, no shame in those losses. It\u2019s just that I don\u2019t see\u00a0greatness with Dos Santos. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sure, he went the distance with Kape and\u00a0 Lima, but was he ever a threat to win? Not really. He was outstruck, and\u00a0controlled on the ground, and his win was a split against Altamirano. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I like\u00a0Kavanaugh\u2019s striking is more powerful, and damaging, and since he got his\u00a0 first UFC jitters out of the way, I like him to be even more confident than in\u00a0the first fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I like Dos Santos, I think he\u2019s good, but just not good enough\u00a0 to scare Kavanaugh on the feet, and his ground game isn\u2019t good so there\u2019s\u00a0no worry for Kavanaugh there. Kavanaugh by decision here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJai Herbert -130 vs Chris Padilla +110\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI like Herbert in this fight. In Herbert\u2019s last fight, he fought another younger\u00a0 fighter and was the quicker fighter who did more damage on the fight and in\u00a0 the clinch, and I think he could do the same to Padilla. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Padilla has been\u00a0 better in the UFC than I thought he would be, as he got the wins against\u00a0Llontop and Rongzhu, but I though Rongzhu was fighting him well and\u00a0winning some of the striking exchanges until Padilla landed a great elbow that caused a doctors stoppage, and the sub against Llontop was mostly\u00a0 due to Llontop fighting like a moron and trying the same move three times\u00a0until Padilla timed it right and got the submission. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Herbert is a veteran that\u00a0 doesn\u2019t make those mistakes, and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if Herbert uses\u00a0 his reach and speed to frustrate Padilla for 3 rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I love this fight to go\u00a0the distance as both guys are durable and tough to hit, but Herbert is the\u00a0ML pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMorgan Charriere -166 vs Nathaniel Wood +140\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m a big Charriere fan, and I thought he got robbed against Mariscal 2\u00a0 fights ago, but he got the KO win against Miranda in his last fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The\u00a0worry with him coming into the UFC was his lack of volume and\u00a0aggression, but he\u2019s proved that to not be an issue. His striking is solid on\u00a0 the feet, and he\u2019s very strong in the clinch, tough to take down, and tough\u00a0to hit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wood is going to try and get the leg kicks going, but outside of that I\u00a0 think Charriere has the advantage everywhere else. Wood is durable, so is\u00a0 Charriere, so I like this to go the distance. Charriere by Decision is the\u00a0play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJordan Vucenic -345 vs Chris Duncan +275\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nVucenic all day in this one. I\u2019ve never been impressed with Duncan as he\u00a0 has a win on CS where he was getting beat up, and he landed a hail mary\u00a0 shot to get the win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Then he barely won a split over Omar Morales who got\u00a0 cut from UFC, and in his last fight he was losing until Oki put his neck in a\u00a0 guillotine to give Duncan another improbable win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Credit Duncan with\u00a0 getting those wins, but toughness, durability, and winning fights you were\u00a0 losing will eventually run out, and I think it runs out here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Vucenic is a\u00a0 submission specialist who had to fight Kutateladze in his UFC debut, and\u00a0 even though he lost, he took it to decision, and held his own. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think\u00a0Vucenic is going to be more technical with the body control, and takedowns\u00a0 and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if he gets the submission win. Duncan is a fade\u00a0as he steps up in competition, I\u2019ll take Vucenic in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMolly McCann -300 vs Alexia Thainara +240\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI just have no idea what we\u2019re going to get from Molly McCann at this point.\u00a0 It\u2019s a London event so of course she\u2019s fighting, but she\u2019s 1-3 in her last 4,\u00a0and just lost pretty bad to Bruna Brasil. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If McCann is on her A game, she\u00a0 should be more polished and powerful, but Thainara is a dog. She comes\u00a0 forward, she can get takedowns, and we saw great kicks from her on\u00a0Contender Series. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She leaves herself open to get hit so Molly will have\u00a0plenty of chances to hit her clean, it\u2019s just if Molly is dialed in. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I could see\u00a0this going the distance, I could see an early finish, I truly don\u2019t know what\u00a0 we\u2019re getting in this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I won\u2019t bet on it, but this fight could be one of the\u00a0 best fights of the night based on how aggressive both fighters can be. I\u2019ll lean to McCann to win, but certainly not at -300<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGunnar Nelson -135 vs Kevin Holland +114<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m all aboard the fade Kevin Holland train. He has 1 win in his last 5 fights,\u00a0and he seems more motivated by being funny, and getting fight paychecks\u00a0rather than improving and looking for wins. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His performance in January\u00a0 was embarrassing as he was quickly submitted by de Ridder, and now he\u2019s\u00a0 fighting 7 weeks later? <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I just can\u2019t take him serious, which is too bad\u00a0 because he can be a good striker, and a solid submission specialist on the\u00a0ground, but we just haven\u2019t seen much of it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Nelson is a grappler who had\u00a0 to take time off after losing to Gilbert Burns, but he\u2019s returned and won both\u00a0 of his fights, I just wish he would fight more often as this is a 2 year break\u00a0for him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Nelson gets this to the ground, and it\u2019s only a matter of time\u00a0 before he gets a submission against Holland as de Ridder made it look\u00a0easy against Holland, and Nelson is as talented as de Ridder. Nelson is\u00a0the pick, sprinkle on the submission prop<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCarlos Ulberg -225 vs Jan Blackowicz +185\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIf Jan can\u2019t get this fight to the ground, I think he\u2019s in trouble. Ulberg\u2019s\u00a0 striking is some of the scariest in the UFC as it\u2019s powerful, and accurate,\u00a0 but he showed he can go the distance and win like he did against Oezdemir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
We haven\u2019t seen Jan in almost 2 years, and he\u2019s in his late 30s,\u00a0and in his last fight that he lost in a split decision against Pereira, he had a\u00a0 great first round, and he just faded the longer the fight went. He ate a\u00a0 bunch of leg kicks, his nose was busted up, and Pereira didn\u2019t even look\u00a0 that good in that fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jan was really low volume, and had no finishing\u00a0 ability after the first round. I think Jan will look decent in the first, but unless\u00a0he gets the finish, I think the younger, more athletic fighter in Ulberg will\u00a0start landing strikes eventually getting the win over a tired Jan. Ulberg is\u00a0the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Leon Edwards vs Sean Brady<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
You can poke serious holes in Leon Edward\u2019s results. He beats Nate Diaz\u00a0 who only fought once more in the UFC, he was losing handily to Usman\u00a0 before landing the big head kick, he beat Usman in the rematch when\u00a0 Usman looked washed, then he beat a washed Colby Covington, and then\u00a0 got dogwalked by Belal Muhammad. So what\u2019s his big, impressive win?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Brady has won 2 straight over Gastelum and Burns, and those were at least convincing wins. Brady is going to try and get Edwards on the\u00a0 ground, and he\u2019ll have some success as his takedowns and wrestling are\u00a0elite. Can he get the finish and\/or do it for 5 rounds is the question. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Leon Edwards can be taken down, there\u2019s no question as Belal took him down 9\u00a0 times, and Usman took him down 9 times in their 2 fights, and even\u00a0Covington got 2 takedowns, but he can get back up and I wonder if that\u2019s\u00a0 going to zap the energy of Brady leading this to be a fight that\u2019s on the feet\u00a0in the later rounds, which is a big advantage for Edwards. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think this fight goes the distance<\/strong>, and Edwards squeaks out a close win, but I certainly\u00a0 wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see Brady do enough to win so I won\u2019t bet on a\u00a0 side, I\u2019ll just take the overs in this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThe only 2 fights that have ended\u00a0by finish for Edwards recently have been the crazy head kick, and an eye poke in the Belal fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
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