Time:<\/strong> 9:10 PM ET \/ 6:10 PM PT
Broadcast:<\/strong> truTV
Location:<\/strong> UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Spread:<\/strong> North Carolina -4.5 | Total: 142.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n
North Carolina vs San Diego State Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Should a team that went 13-7 in this year’s version of the ACC be in the NCAA Tournament? Probably not. Should a team that went 1-12 in Q1 games this season be in the NCAA Tournament? Probably not. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the time for those arguments is over, and the Tar Heels still have an opportunity to make some noise in this event. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
North Carolina’s lack of wins against top-tier competition is glaring, but this is still a well-rounded team that is “good” (but certainly not great) at just about everything. North Carolina shoots above the national average from three-point range, two-point range and the free throw line. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Tar Heels have a veteran point guard in RJ Davis who does not turn the ball over. College basketball analyst Will Warren maintains a database that tracks NCAA Tournament teams since 2002. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
From an advanced analytics perspective, North Carolina is the fourth-best 11-seed over the last two decades. From a wins-and-losses view, we certainly understand (and support) the argument against having North Carolina in this field. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
But now that the Tar Heels are here, it’s important to recognize that they have an advanced profile of a team that is significantly better than their seed would indicate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Assuming this point spread stays north of -4, this will be the 11th First Four game in Dayton with a point spread greater than four points. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The favorite has gone 9-1 straight-up, 8-2 against the spread in the previous ten. That trend includes both the 16 vs 16 matchups and 11 vs 11 matchups. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you remove the 16 vs 16 matchups and just focus on the at-large 11 vs 11 games, the favorite is 5-0 straight-up and against the spread. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Instead of looking at the side, we’re a little more interested in the total. San Diego State’s 7-foot freshman Magoon Gwath has missed the last six games because of injury, but all indications are that he is good-to-go tonight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Without Gwath patrolling the paint, the over went 4-2 in San Diego State’s last six games. With him, the Aztecs are a completely different team on the defensive end. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since February 1, Gwath has recorded four blocks against Wyoming, four blocks with one steal against San Jose State and five blocks with one steal against Boise State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
North Carolina vs San Diego State Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
San Diego State was eliminated in the first round of the Mountain West Tournament, so the Aztecs have enjoyed some extra time to rest and prep for this one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Over the last two seasons, San Diego State has advanced to the Sweet Sixteen and the National Championship Game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
When you add the Aztecs’ Mountain West Tournament games with their NCAA Tournament games, those high-leverage contests have seen an average of 131.3 points per game and the under is 10-5 (would have been 11-4 in regulation, but one game went “over” in overtime).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
North Carolina vs San Diego State Prediction: Under 142.5<\/h3>\n\n\n\nFREE March Madness Betting Guide Now Available<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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