Joshua Van -198 vs Rei Tsurya +164<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTsurya will try and get this to the ground, and this fight really comes down to if Van can\u00a0keep it on the feet. If he can, he\u2019ll dominate this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tsurya\u2019s striking is pretty bad, but\u00a0 to be honest I don\u2019t think his wrestling and ground game that great. He won his UFC\u00a0debut against Hernandez, but Hernandez won the third round by taking Tsurya down\u00a0 and holding him there, and it sure looked like Tsurya ran out of gas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Van will win\u00a0 this one, and don\u2019t forget his last fight was against Durden, another guy who wants to get takedowns, and Van was prepared and after round 1 didn\u2019t get taken down, and\u00a0really tuned up Durden on the feet. I think Durden is better than Tsurya so this is an\u00a0easy pick for me. Van should win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCurtis Blaydes -290 vs Rizvan Kuniev +235<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKuniev got busted for steroids in PFL, and then got a fight on Contender Series where\u00a0he beat a really bad opponent so it\u2019s hard to figure out where he\u2019s at, and what he can\u00a0 do well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He likes to clinch, and hold guys against the fence, and I\u2019m not sure that\u2019s\u00a0going to work with Blaydes who is a solid wrestler with good power, and when you look\u00a0 at his losses, they\u2019re to power punchers on the feet, and I don\u2019t think Kuniev is that guy.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
There are too many unknowns with Kuniev for me so I won\u2019t bet this fight, but I lean\u00a0Blaydes by decision<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMairon Santos -380 vs Francis Marshall +300<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI thought Marshall had the potential to be good in the UFC, but it just hasn\u2019t happened.\u00a0 His striking isn\u2019t there, he can wrestle a bit, but doesn\u2019t do much with it when he gets\u00a0 guys to the ground, and he\u2019s just slow and tentative, even in his win against Buzukja\u00a0(who is awful, 1-4 in the UFC). <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Santos isn\u2019t a lot better, but his striking is good, and I\u00a0 think he\u2019ll do more on offense than Marshall will. His only pro loss is to Dan Argueta\u00a0when they were both in LFA, but he rolled through TUF, and knocked out Ofli in his\u00a0debut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Santos is the play, but wow this price is steep. Santos by decision<\/strong> would be a\u00a0 way to lower the juice, that would be the play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCarlos Leal Miranda -800 vs Ale Morono +550<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCarlos Leal is going to kill Morono, who looks like his UFC career is quickly coming to\u00a0an end. His only recent wins are to old guys in Tim Means and Court McGee, and he\u00a0just doesn\u2019t have the power or cardio to compete anymore, and losing 2 in a row to\u00a0 Daniel Rodriguez and Niko Price is a horrible look. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Leal finally made it to UFC, and had\u00a0a nightmare short notice debut when he took on Fakhretdinov. Even though he lost, he\u00a0put on a quality performance, and we were excited to bet on him in his next fight, and\u00a0 UFC is giving him a nice \u201cthank you fight\u201d for taking that short notice fight. His striking is\u00a0better, his cardio is better, Leal will steamroll Morono in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDjorden Santos -198 vs Ozzy Diaz +164\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m cautious about betting on Contender Series guys making their UFC debut, but I\u00a0really like Santos in this one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ozzy Diaz came from LFA and had a couple of nice wins,\u00a0but he got KO\u2019d in the first round of his UFC debut, and go back to Contender Series a\u00a0couple of seasons ago where Joe Pyfer knocked him out early. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s hittable, and I don\u2019t\u00a0 think his cardio is great and Santos should take advantage. Santos was a +300\u00a0 underdog on Contender Series, and won easily showing really good durability, takedown defense and cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Diaz doesn\u2019t get the early finish, I think Santos wears\u00a0him down and gets the finish late, and that will be the pick. Santos by finish in the 2nd or\u00a03rd<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nArmen Petrosyan -155 vs Brunno Ferreira +130\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPower puncher vs volume striker. Pretty simple analysis\u2026if Ferreira can land the big\u00a0 counter shot, he\u2019ll get the KO. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If not, Petrosyan will just piece him up for 3 rounds with\u00a0his kickboxing. Neither guy has good skills on the ground so I don\u2019t expect this to get to\u00a0 the ground, and we just watched Petrosyan get knocked out in his last fight, but it was a\u00a0crazy double spinning backfist that we\u2019ve never seen before so I don\u2019t really think he\u00a0has durability issues. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ferreira is dependent on landing the big shot, and while he does\u00a0have serious power, he also gets tired. I\u2019ll take Petrosyan to win, but the way to bet this\u00a0is to live bet it<\/strong>. If it gets out of the first, take Petrosyan as Ferreira will tire down the\u00a0stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIgnacio Bahamondes -120 vs Jalin Turner +100\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIt\u2019s all about the fight IQ for Turner, or lack thereof. He has all the tools to be a\u00a0 Champion, and yet he\u2019s lost 3 out of 4. He lost 2 split decisions, one to Gamrot, and\u00a0 one to Hooker where he was winning and he let Hooker back in the fight to steal the\u00a0 split. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Then he hit Moicano so hard, that Moicano fell over and instead of finishing him,\u00a0Turner turns around and starts to celebrate, and Moicano recovers and then finishes\u00a0Turner the next round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s super athletic, his strikes are dynamic, and he has a good\u00a0 wrestling\/ground game, but he just can\u2019t seem to put it together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bahamondes is long\u00a0 and rangy with his strikes, and since he got overwhelmed by Klein, he\u2019s won 2 straight\u00a0both by sick first round finishes and I think that loss to Klein may have been a good\u00a0 thing for him as his aggression has improved. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His long legs and arms are really tough\u00a0 to get inside so I\u2019ll be interested to see if Turner wants to strike with him or try and shoot\u00a0 and wrestle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This should be a great fight, nothing would surprise me, but I just can\u2019t put\u00a0my money on Jalin Turner as I\u2019ve watched him lose fights he should have won. I won\u2019t\u00a0be betting it, but Bahamondes is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMauricio Ruffy -500 vs King Green +380<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis will be a strikers delight as neither of these guys will be attempting takedowns, and\u00a0this is big step up for Ruffy in my opinion. His striking is great, but his last 3 wins are\u00a0 over Mullarkey, Ferguson and LIontop who have combined for 5 straight losses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In\u00a0Ruffy\u2019s last fight, it was clear he wanted to go the distance to work on his cardio as all\u00a0his fights have been early finishes so he was cautious and patient as he dissected\u00a0Llontop, but I don\u2019t know if he\u2019s going to be able to do that here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Green has an awkward\u00a0 stance, and strikes that come from weird angles, but he\u2019s 38 and he\u2019s lost 2 out of 3,\u00a0and his wins have been against an old Jim Miller, and a one shot KO of Grant Dawson\u00a0that was out of nowhere. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He lost to Pimblett by submission, but the problem lies in that\u00a0 he\u2019s been knocked out by Jalin Turner and Drew Dober so when he\u2019s fought power\u00a0 punchers, he\u2019s been flatlined. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ruffy has a ton of potential, but I\u2019m not sure if he\u2019s -500\u00a0material over a veteran like Green. Ruffy is probably going to be one of the most popular picks on this card, but I\u2019ll be cautious and stay away from betting this fight<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIasmin Lucindo -130 vs Amanda Lemos +110\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis should be a great fight between a veteran who still has power and skills against a\u00a023 year old phenom who fights like a veteran. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lucindo can strike with anyone, and in\u00a0 her last fight she was able to get takedowns against Rodriguez, and grind out solid\u00a0 control time and some decent ground strikes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lemos lost her last fight to Jandiroba, but\u00a0Jandiroba is all wrestling and grappling, and while Lucindo can do those, it\u2019s not at\u00a0Jandiroba\u2019s level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lemos still has her power at age 37 as she really damaged up Dern\u00a0 2 fights ago brutally on the feet, and she\u2019s no slouch on the ground herself. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think\u00a0Lemos\u2019s striking is going to surprise Lucindo, and it will take her a bit to get used to the\u00a0power and speed, and she could get hit harder than she\u2019s been hit before as Lemos is\u00a0the best striker she\u2019s faced. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
We\u2019ve done well in predicting Lucindo fights, I think this\u00a0might be just a bit too much for her. She barely won a split decision over Rodriguez in\u00a0her last fight, and I like Lemos a lot more than Rodriguez. We\u2019ll take Lemos in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRafael Fiziev -130 vs Justin Gaetje +110\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThe first fight showed off Gaetje\u2019s striking, and Fiziev really didn\u2019t have an answer.\u00a0 Fiziev had some good shots to the body, but Gaetje was able to stay out of harms way,\u00a0and he won all the big exchanges, and did noticable damage to Fiziev\u2019s face. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Since\u00a0 that fight, Fiziiev hurt his foot against Gamrot, and Gaetje beat Poirier and got KO\u2019d in\u00a0 the insane Holloway fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Fiziev will make some adjustments, but I\u2019m not sure\u00a0 what the adjustments are. Takedowns? Better striking? Better defense? I just don\u2019t\u00a0really see it with Fiiziev, and I think he has really limited upside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I do worry about where\u00a0 Gaetje is at now after that Holloway fight, but his recnt losses have only come to\u00a0 Holloway, Oliveira, and Khabib, and Fiziev is nowhere near those guys. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ll have faith\u00a0that Gaetje is still the same fighter, and to repeat his performance over Fiziev from the\u00a0 first fight. Gaetje at plus money is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC 313 Main Event: Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ve made a lot of money betting on Alex Pereira, but I\u2019m staying away from this fight.\u00a0 Pereira has a ton of power, we know that. He can knock anyone out, we know that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
But\u00a0Ankalaev should have success with the wrestling in this one, and when you look at who\u00a0 Alex has been beating, it\u2019s been strikers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The strikers like Hill, Jiri, and Rountree let\u00a0Pereira get into his rhythm, and he could strike when he found his opening when he got\u00a0 into the groove of the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ankalaev\u2019s wrestling and takedowns will not only wear\u00a0Pereira down, but I believe it will disrupt his rhythm, and not let him get into a good flow\u00a0to land the big kill shot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Also, this is Pereira\u2019s 7th fight in 2 years, and that\u2019s a lot of\u00a0 training, fights, weight cuts and just overall wear and tear. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It only takes one shot from\u00a0Pereira to connect, and the fights over, but I\u2019m not going to be surprised if Ankalaev\u00a0pulls the upset so I will exercise caution and not bet on this fight. Lean is Ankalaev, but\u00a0none of my money will be bet on the fight<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33767","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33767"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33767\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33768,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33767\/revisions\/33768"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27114"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33767"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33767"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33767"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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