{"id":33748,"date":"2025-03-04T13:01:36","date_gmt":"2025-03-04T18:01:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=33748"},"modified":"2025-03-04T13:01:38","modified_gmt":"2025-03-04T18:01:38","slug":"pga-arnold-palmer-invitational-2025-expert-predictions-betting-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/golf\/pga-arnold-palmer-invitational-2025-expert-predictions-betting-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025: Expert Predictions & Betting Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman<\/a> offers his thoughts on the Arnold Palmer Invitational<\/strong> teeing off from Bay Hill Golf Club in Bay Hill, Florida<\/strong>! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding <\/strong>the Arnold Palmer Invitational<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> starting on March 6!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stay on top of the latest Golf<\/a> updates direct from Las Vegas!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Arnold Palmer Invitational<\/th>Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Notes<\/th><\/tr>
When:<\/td>March 6 – 9<\/td><\/tr>
Where:<\/td>Bay Hill Golf Club in Bay Hill, Florida<\/td><\/tr>
Defending Champ:<\/td>Scottie Scheffler<\/td><\/tr>
Current Favorite:<\/td>Scottie Scheffler (+320 at DraftKings<\/a>)<\/td><\/tr>
TV:<\/td>Golf Channel, NBC<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds Board<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel<\/a> , DraftKings <\/a>and others)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Arnold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This 2nd<\/sup> week of the Florida Swing marks the 4th Signature Event of the season and the second with a cut as the field of 72 will be trimmed to the Top-50, or those within ten shots, after 36 holes.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arnold\u2019s signature course presents a tough challenge to the players every year and although three of the last six editions have seen the winner reach double-digits under par, only a total of six players have reached at least 10-under in those six years.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year, Scheffler ran away with the event at 15-under, but Wyndham Clark was the only other player to reach the threshold, and he finished exactly on it, at 10-under.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The course can stretch to nearly 7,500 yards playing to a stock par-72.\u00a0 The rough has been allowed to grow out to four inches this year, up from its standard test of three inches.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greens are set to run at 13.5 on the stimp, which is extremely fast so being able to control approach shots is paramount and to do that, finding the fairway is a must.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The issue is that fairways around Bay Hill are narrow making finding them more difficult than most tracks as the course routinely ranks in the Top-10 hardest to find the fairway (54%).\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That in turn has a major effect on finding the greens, also ranking in the Top-10 difficulty in greens in regulation at (58%). It\u2019s no wonder then, that the course has averaged over par in now eight straight years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of its length, players will face more than the average number of approach shots from 175 yards or more, so both driving and long iron play will be the other important statistics to look at this week.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those skillsets are even more obvious when you look at past winners here that include McIlroy, Scheffler, DeChambeau and of course, the goat, Tiger Woods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, experience has proven important at Bay Hill as seven of the last eight winners have finished inside the Top-15 in a previous edition of the tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At this point, Mother Nature is forecasted to have its first noticeable effect on a tournament this season.\u00a0 Winds are forecasted to be up for Thursday\u2019s first round in the 15-20 mph range, before quieting back down again on Friday and Saturday.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the wind returns for Sunday\u2019s finale at a possibly even higher clip which will certainly make for an exciting finish that could also include some rain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One note on the timing of the weather is that thunderstorms are forecasted on Wednesday evening which will likely make Thursday AM-Friday PM the ideal tee time wave this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Winner:<\/strong> Xander Schauffele +2000 | Top-10 +175 | Top-20 -140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aside from putting Scottie or Rory in here, which you could certainly do, I don\u2019t think you needed me to tell you that.  Instead, I\u2019ll go slightly down the list to Xander.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let me be clear, I do have concern about his absence since The Sentry, which has been due to a rib injury, but this one is all about the number as it\u2019s been quite a while since we have since Xander getting 20-1, especially in a limited field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Xander remains the active Tour leader in cuts made at 57, ten more than Scottie\u2019s 47, with 3rd<\/sup> on the list being Morikawa at just 20, showing his consistency for a long period of time.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, since last February, Xander had finished inside the Top-25 in 18 straight events, including two major wins, before what seemed like an inexplicable T41 at the ZOZO in October and a T30 at The Sentry in January.\u00a0 But perhaps it all makes sense now with his injury.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While I do think he could show some competitive rust this week, much like we saw from Scottie in his first three events back from injury, he is plenty good enough to compete here and make a run on Sunday, in which case, we won\u2019t see 20-1 again until another injury.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Winner:<\/strong> Sepp Straka +7000 | Top-10 +450 | Top-20 +190<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another \u201cfull honesty\u201d disclaimer, I don\u2019t think Sepp wins this tournament, as I think we have only about five guys with a legitimate chance, but Sepp has as good of a chance as anyone to hit the first or second page of the leaderboard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Staka played well last week to kick off the Florida Swing, finishing T11 at the Cognizant Classic.  That marked his 6th<\/sup> Top-15 finish in his last eight starts including a win at The American Express in January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His iron game is up there with the top players in the world, and although he doesn\u2019t hit it long off the tee, his driver accuracy keeps him gaining strokes Off the Tee.  That accuracy could gain him a few more strokes this week given the extending rough length.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only negative is that his history at this event is simply not good.\u00a0 Four MCs in five tries and his lone weekend finishing T57.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But hey, current form can trump all of that, just look at Shane Lowry last year.\u00a0 He led or co-led after each of the first three rounds, ultimately finishing T3.\u00a0 He too had missed the cut in this event in four of five starts with his best finish even worse, at 67.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See you next week for the THE PLAYERS Championship!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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