Chepe Mariscal -395 vs Ricardo Ramons +310<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI haven\u2019t been that impressed with Chepe in the UFC, and this price is crazy to me. He\u2019s 4-0 in the UFC, but one of his wins is because Jenkins broke his arm, another win is against Charriere when most (including myself thought he lost), and then a win over an old Daman Jackson. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s a tough fighter who likes to clinch, grapple and make fights ugly, but I don\u2019t think he has much upside, and Ramos is going to be a problem for him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ramos can make some really dumb decisions in fights, which has cost him wins in the past, but when he\u2019s one point, he\u2019s good. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He has good striking, and he can grapple on the ground so he has the tools to give Chepe fits. No chance<\/strong> I would play Chepe at this price<\/strong>, don\u2019t be surprised if this is a really close fight in the 3rd round, and Ramos squeaks out a close decision win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJohn Castenada -238 vs Douglas Silva de Andrade +195<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAndrade is 39 yeqars old, and whil he still has gas left in the tank, I don\u2019t think it\u2019s enough to get the win here. In his last fight, he seemed to slow down and get sloppy at the end of the second and into the third. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking isn\u2019t great these days, and he doesn\u2019t have the wrestling to give Castenada problems so I\u2019m struggling to see a confident path to victory for him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Castenada is just going to be a bit better on the feet and if he wants to wrestle, I think he\u2019ll be a bit better there as well. Both guys are durable, I think this goes the distance so taking overs or Castenada by decision is the play in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRamazonbek Temirov -125 vs Charles Johnson +105<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nInteresting fight here as we really haven\u2019t seen Temirov in rounds 2 and 3 as his last 5 fights have ended in the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He has incredible power, but he swings very wild. Give him credit because he only needs to land one time to turn the lights out, but he leaves himself wide open to counters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His style has worked against lesser competition, but I think Charles Johnson will be able to avoid the early knockout, and take him into deeper waters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Johnson has won 4 in a row, and he\u2019s used striking and ground game in these fights to get the wins. He has great energy and cardio so I think he\u2019ll be able to use that to his advantage if he gets it past the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Temirov has the big power advantage, but I think Johnson is more well-rounded over 3 rounds. He\u2019ll be the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGet $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC Fight Night & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
JJ Aldrich -192 vs Andrea Lee +160<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI don\u2019t know what happened to Andrea Lee. She had some nice wins on her resume, but she\u2019s dropped 5 in a row, some of the losses to really good opponents, but losing to De La Rosa in her last fight was a terrible look. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She\u2019s 2-8 in her last 10 and needs to win or she\u2019s probably looking at getting cut. I think she has decent striking, and a decent ground game, but she just can\u2019t seem to put it all together to win multiple rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The volume of strikes isn\u2019t there, the striking defense isn\u2019t there, and she\u2019s always fighting off her back foot instead of walking forward. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Aldrich is coming off a nice win against Hardy, and she showed good wrestling and clinch in that fight, and she should be able to do the same thing against Lee. I see Aldrich having better control time and better moments in the clinch, I think she takes the decision win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDanny Silva -192 vs Lucas Almeida +160 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSilva had a war in his UFC debut with Culibao, and he got the win, but there were some holes in his game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s hittable, and doesn\u2019t show a lot of great head movement, but he\u2019s gotten away with it as he\u2019s durable, and his striking is powerful enough to keep opponents on their toes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He doesn\u2019t throw a ton of volume, and if he doesn\u2019t have big moments of sitting guys down off of strikes, I think he can struggle to impress the judges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Almeida lost 2 in a row before getting the win against Cuamba in his last fight, and I thought it was a nice showcase of what he can do on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His volume and accuracy looked great, and he did visible damage to Cuamba who has a solid striking background. I\u2019ll take Almeida to get the win as volume should overcome the power of Silva<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLuana Carolina -142 vs Montan de La Rosa +120<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCarolina has won 3 in a row, but not against great competition, and even though Rosa isn\u2019t a world-beater, I think she has the tools to get the upset here. Carolina has long arms and legs, but doesn\u2019t use them enough for my liking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
When she lands, it\u2019s effective, I just wish she would throw more. I also think Rosa has the advantage with takedowns and ground game as Carolina was taken down and controlled by Pudilova at the end of the third round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Look for Rosa to just be more physical<\/strong>, and as long as she doesn\u2019t stand at distance and let Carolina land with those long arms and legs, she should muddy up the fight and get the win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMario Pinto -375 vs Austen Lane +300 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPinto has deceiving power that was on display on his Contender Series win as he landed a clean jab that knocked his opponent out, and it didn\u2019t look that powerful, but he\u2019s accurate and sneaky powerful. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He has good cardio as he\u2019s fought in a 5 round fight, and he looked good in it, but I don\u2019t think this fight lasts too long. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Outside of wrestling Despaigne for all 3 rounds, Lane\u2019s fights typically end quick as he\u2019s a powerful striker with bad defense so it\u2019s kill or be killed for him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think Lane is sloppy, and I don\u2019t trust him to stay out of harms way, especially because Pinto is a much better wrestler than Despaigne so Lane can\u2019t use that path to victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pinto should find the opening and get the KO win<\/strong>, but just to be careful take the fight to not go the distance in case Lane lands a hail mary strike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nEstevan Ribovics -250 vs Nasrat Haqparast +205<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI haven\u2019t been a Ribovics fan, but his win against Zellhuber was impressive. His movement was great, he maintained great distance control against the longer fighter, and even though he was getting hit, he walked through the strikes to land his own. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His energy and cardio was equally impressive as he just wore down Zellhuber and poured it on in the 3rd. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Haqparast has tons of trouble making weight, and we\u2019ve done well betting on him as he's won 4 straight, but if Ribovics fights like he did last time, he\u2019ll out volume and out work Haqparast. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t expect takedowns in this fight, look for Ribovic to be too much for Haqparast in a decision win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDanny Barlow -298 vs Sam Patterson +240<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m pretty surprised at the price on Barlow here as he has big time power, but Patterson has a big advantage with grappling and submissions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Patterson is tall, and his striking defense isn\u2019t great, but it\u2019s improving. After getting knocked out in his UFC debt, he\u2019s done a nice job not getting in his next 2 fights, and he\u2019s been able to take down and submit guys who struggle on the ground, and I think he\u2019ll waste no time trying to get Barlow to the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If he does, he\u2019s live for a submission win. If it stays on the feet, it\u2019s Barlow\u2019s big advantage. I haven\u2019t seen much of Barlow\u2019s wrestling or takedown defense so I\u2019ll take a sprinkle on Patterson as this plus money<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWilliam Gomis -218 vs Hyder Amil +198 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGomis has improved so much over his UFC fights, and he\u2019s become a really difficult matchup as he has an odd stance, and his strikes come from different angles, but against Brito he showed he could hang in the clinch and ground game as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The damage he did to Brito really showed his improvement in the power of his striking, but he still needs to throw some more strikes to take the next step. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019ll get his chance against Amil who pushes forward constantly, and loves turning fights into brawls, and it\u2019s worked as he\u2019s 10-0. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gomis is going to be much more difficult to KO than his first 2 UFC opponents, and I think Amil is going to have a hard time getting Gomis to stand and trade back and forth like Amil likes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Whoever controls the pace of the fight will win, and I think Gomis will be slightly better at that. Gomis by decision in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJulian Marquez -162 vs Cody Brundage +136 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI can\u2019t believe Brundage is in a co-main. He\u2019s gotten bailed out on numerous fights when he was losing by getting a win when Malkoun got DQ\u2019d, and he was getting beat up by Alhassan in his last fight when the fight got ruled a no contest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He wants to get the fight to the ground, and as bad as he is, this is actually a great matchup for him. Marquez comes flying and is looking for violence, but he\u2019s gotten KO\u2019d in 3 straight fights so his durability is gone, and his only wins in the UFC are against guys who are no longer in the organization. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Marquez is going to try and land the early kill shot on Brundage, and he could absolutely knock out Brundage, but if he doesn\u2019t, Brundage will get this to the ground and work his ground game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Marquez has a couple submission wins, but he got the submissions after knocking them down to the ground with his strikes and grabbing the neck. I can\u2019t bet on Marquez with how chiny he is, Brundage is the pick, but I won\u2019t be betting this<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Manel Cape vs Asu Almabayev<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I thought Kape looked great in December when he knocked out Bruno Silva in the 3rd,\u00a0 and it was a reminder how deadly his striking can be. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His only blemish recently is losing\u00a0 to Mokaev who just grappled him all 3 rounds, but Almabaev doesn\u2019t fight like that.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Almabaev does have a good ground game, but I don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to be good\u00a0 enough over 5 rounds. The striking and movement of Kape is just too good, and I don\u2019t\u00a0see Almabaev avoiding the big shots for the entire fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The -245 line might make you\u00a0a bit nervous as Kape can be a head case, but he\u2019s just in a tier above Almabaev. He\u2019s\u00a0a good parlay piece<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33702"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33702\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33708,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33702\/revisions\/33708"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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