{"id":33677,"date":"2025-02-25T10:47:55","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T15:47:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=33677"},"modified":"2025-02-26T08:41:03","modified_gmt":"2025-02-26T13:41:03","slug":"pga-cognizant-classic-2025-expert-predictions-betting-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/golf\/pga-cognizant-classic-2025-expert-predictions-betting-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"PGA Cognizant Classic 2025: Expert Predictions & Betting Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Cognizant Classic Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman<\/a> offers his thoughts on the Cognizant Classic<\/strong> teeing off from PGA National Resort & Spa (The Champion) in Palm Beach Gardens, FL! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding <\/strong>the Cognizant Classic<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong> starting on February 27th!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stay on top of the latest Golf<\/a> updates direct from Las Vegas!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Cognizant Classic<\/th>Cognizant Classic Betting Notes<\/th><\/tr>
When:<\/td>February 27 – March 2<\/td><\/tr>
Where:<\/td>PGA National Resort & Spa (The Champion) – Palm Beach Gardens, FL<\/td><\/tr>
Defending Champ:<\/td>Austin Eckroat<\/td><\/tr>
Current Favorite:<\/td>Shane Lowry (+2000 at DraftKings<\/a>)<\/td><\/tr>
TV:<\/td>Golf Channel, NBC<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Cognizant Classic Odds Board<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel<\/a> , DraftKings <\/a>and others)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"PGA<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Cognizant Classic Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The former Honda Classic, under its new name for the 2nd<\/sup> year, kicks off the Florida Swing once again as players transition from the poa annua greens of the west to the bermudagrass greens in the Sunshine State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With next week scheduled to be a Signature Event, this tournament doesn\u2019t normally boast a strong field, but this year does have a few big names, certainly more than we saw last week in Mexico including a Ryder Cuppers Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka and Russell Henley.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The course is tough. Only four of the last 12 winners have finished double digits under par (better than -10).  Wayward shots are penalized here more than most tracks as water is realistically in play on 15 of 18 holes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The famed \u2018Bear Trap\u2019 is one of the toughest stretches of holes on Tour as one poor shot quickly brings double into play. That stretch consists of the par-3 15th, par-4 16th, and par-3 17th, all with water ready to gobble up errant shots. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the beginning of the tournament 17 years ago, that three-hole stretch has averaged over par in every single edition including +0.435 last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The course had played to a par-70 for years, but last year it debuted as a par-71. The par-4 10th hole was converted into a par-5 and this year it has been extended a further 20 yards to 550, bringing the overall course length to just over 7,150 yards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, the putting surfaces are larger than average at 7,000 square feet and feature Bermudagrass that can be very slick this time of year.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While having a hot putter always helps, and it may be the difference if your Tee-to-Green play is good, this is a ball-strikers paradise. Each of the last seven years, the winner has ranked no worse than 5th in that department for the week including ranking #1 four straight years from 2018-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, if you look at the Top-10 SG T2G each year, it is nearly a mirror image of the actual Top-10. So, as you normally should, pay attention to those that are in good ball-striking form with an extra emphasis on SG Approach. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wind is always a factor at PGA National but this year it looks to be rather tame as the worst day, Friday, is only forecasted to be between 10-15 mph and probably not enough of an uptick to create any significant tee time wave advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rain is also absent from the forecast and temperatures look beautiful in the upper 70s to 80 degrees all week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cognizant Classic Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Winner: Daniel Berger +2800 | Top-10 +320 | Top-20 +150<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s been a long while since I have bet on Daniel Berger. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he disappeared for 18 months missing the 2nd<\/sup> half of 2022 and all of 2023 with back issues. As he returned last year, he clearly was out of tournament shape and needed reps to make a comeback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fast forward to now and it appears Berger has made the turn back to contender with five Top-21 finishes in his last eight starts including a solo 12th<\/sup> at The Genesis Invitational and a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open this season.  He also finished co-runner-up at the RSM Classic in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Combine his good play, which brings confidence along with it, and his history at this event with three different Top-4 finishes, and he should feel strongly about his chances to contend once again this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of his absence, there is no data that will show Berger in any \u201cTop\u201d rankings over what I normally like to look for, that 6-to-12 month range, but this play is about his resurgence and getting ahead of the number before he inevitably wins again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Winner:<\/strong> Andrew Novak +5500 | Top-10 +550 | Top-20 +250<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not the sexy 100-1 longshot here, but Novak checks all the boxes to have a great week. In his last four starts, he has finished T13 or better in three of those including tough fields and courses at The Genesis Invitational (-12), Pebble Beach (-21) and Farmers Insurance Open (-8), the number in parenthesis representing the winner\u2019s final score.  Notable as 8-under to 14-under seems to be the likely sweet spot for the winner this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Going back to the RBC Canadian Open last June, Novak has missed only four cuts in 18 starts while finishing Top-25 in ten of those events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While still searching for his first PGA Tour win, Novak contested here last year as well ultimately finishing T9.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, Novak has had a balanced game as he is one of only seven players in the field gaining strokes in all five categories over the last six months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See you next week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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