nd<\/sup> year, kicks off the Florida Swing once again as players transition from the poa annua greens of the west to the bermudagrass greens in the Sunshine State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWith next week scheduled to be a Signature Event, this tournament doesn\u2019t normally boast a strong field, but this year does have a few big names, certainly more than we saw last week in Mexico including a Ryder Cuppers Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka and Russell Henley. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The course is tough. Only four of the last 12 winners have finished double digits under par (better than -10). Wayward shots are penalized here more than most tracks as water is realistically in play on 15 of 18 holes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The famed \u2018Bear Trap\u2019 is one of the toughest stretches of holes on Tour as one poor shot quickly brings double into play. That stretch consists of the par-3 15th, par-4 16th, and par-3 17th, all with water ready to gobble up errant shots. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Since the beginning of the tournament 17 years ago, that three-hole stretch has averaged over par in every single edition including +0.435 last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The course had played to a par-70 for years, but last year it debuted as a par-71. The par-4 10th hole was converted into a par-5 and this year it has been extended a further 20 yards to 550, bringing the overall course length to just over 7,150 yards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Additionally, the putting surfaces are larger than average at 7,000 square feet and feature Bermudagrass that can be very slick this time of year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While having a hot putter always helps, and it may be the difference if your Tee-to-Green play is good, this is a ball-strikers paradise. Each of the last seven years, the winner has ranked no worse than 5th in that department for the week including ranking #1 four straight years from 2018-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In fact, if you look at the Top-10 SG T2G each year, it is nearly a mirror image of the actual Top-10. So, as you normally should, pay attention to those that are in good ball-striking form with an extra emphasis on SG Approach. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wind is always a factor at PGA National but this year it looks to be rather tame as the worst day, Friday, is only forecasted to be between 10-15 mph and probably not enough of an uptick to create any significant tee time wave advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rain is also absent from the forecast and temperatures look beautiful in the upper 70s to 80 degrees all week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Cognizant Classic Predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Winner: Daniel Berger +2800 | Top-10 +320 | Top-20 +150<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIt\u2019s been a long while since I have bet on Daniel Berger. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he disappeared for 18 months missing the 2nd<\/sup> half of 2022 and all of 2023 with back issues. As he returned last year, he clearly was out of tournament shape and needed reps to make a comeback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFast forward to now and it appears Berger has made the turn back to contender with five Top-21 finishes in his last eight starts including a solo 12th<\/sup> at The Genesis Invitational and a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open this season. He also finished co-runner-up at the RSM Classic in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCombine his good play, which brings confidence along with it, and his history at this event with three different Top-4 finishes, and he should feel strongly about his chances to contend once again this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Because of his absence, there is no data that will show Berger in any \u201cTop\u201d rankings over what I normally like to look for, that 6-to-12 month range, but this play is about his resurgence and getting ahead of the number before he inevitably wins again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Winner:<\/strong> Andrew Novak +5500 | Top-10 +550 | Top-20 +250<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNot the sexy 100-1 longshot here, but Novak checks all the boxes to have a great week. In his last four starts, he has finished T13 or better in three of those including tough fields and courses at The Genesis Invitational (-12), Pebble Beach (-21) and Farmers Insurance Open (-8), the number in parenthesis representing the winner\u2019s final score. Notable as 8-under to 14-under seems to be the likely sweet spot for the winner this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Going back to the RBC Canadian Open last June, Novak has missed only four cuts in 18 starts while finishing Top-25 in ten of those events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
While still searching for his first PGA Tour win, Novak contested here last year as well ultimately finishing T9. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Finally, Novak has had a balanced game as he is one of only seven players in the field gaining strokes in all five categories over the last six months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
See you next week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
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