Hun Sung Park -250 vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel +205\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPark has won his first 2 UFC fights in the UFC, but the level of competition has been\u00a0horrific. He does look UFC caliber though as his striking is ok, and he\u2019s shown good\u00a0skills on the ground with control and submissions, but he has a low ceiling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tumend\u00a0 isn\u2019t much better, he has good length that he uses well, but I just don\u2019t think he has any\u00a0upside, and Park should be a bit better everywhere. I think he gets the win, but the way\u00a0 to bet this fight is to take the fight to not go the distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Road To UFC fighters have\u00a0 been getting in brawls, and their offense is better than their defense so we\u2019ve seen a lot of finishes. The under is the only thing I\u2019m interested in<\/strong> betting in this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKody Steele -238 vs Rongzhu +195\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nZhu\u2019s second stint in the UFC didn\u2019t get off to a great start as Padilla finished him in\u00a0September, but he did have some success on the feet with his striking before the doctor\u00a0stoppage for a swollen eye. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think he\u2019s going to give Steele some problems on the feet,\u00a0 but the wrestling is where Steele has the big advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Steele\u2019s striking has worked against lesser quality opponents, but it\u2019s something that he\u2019s not great at so I think Zhu\u00a0can touch him up, but eventually Steele will get the wrestling and takedowns going en\u00a0route to the win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s a steep price for a guy with only 7 fights making his UFC debut so I\u00a0won\u2019t be betting it, but Steele should get the decision win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nQuilan Salkilld -410 vs Anshul Jubli +320<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJubli famously lost his last fight to Mike Breeden where Jubli was winning, and then\u00a0Breeden started barking like a dog at him in the third, and Jubli froze up and got knocked out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s a limited fighter from India, and the UFC wants Indian fighters in the\u00a0 promotion to get the Indian audience, but if he was from Brazil or the US, he wouldn\u2019t be in the UFC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Salkilld has good striking, and kicks, and his weakness is the wrestling and\u00a0 ground game, but Jubli won\u2019t test that. Salkilld should win this with his striking<\/strong>, he\u2019s a solid parlay piece on this card.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKevin Jousset -245 vs Jonathan Micallef +200<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJousset should handle this guy pretty easily on the feet as Micallef has pillow hand for\u00a0 strikes, and while Micallef submitted his opponent on Contender Series, his opponent\u00a0was awful, and Micalleff showed weaknesses with his control. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jousset has a lot of\u00a0 motivation to get back on the winning track after getting beat down by Bryan Battle, and\u00a0 this is a match made in heaven for him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jousset can be low volume on the feet, but it\u00a0 should be good enough to dominate Micallef. Jousset ML is the pick with a sprinkle on him to win by KO<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Alexsandre Topuria -410 vs Colby Thicknesse +320<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNeither of these guys have fought great competition, and they will be each others\u00a0biggest test to date. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I see why Topuria is the big favorite here as he appears to be the more powerful fighter, but we really don\u2019t know how good his cardio is if it gets out of the\u00a0first round, and his 2 recent wins didn\u2019t require him to do too much so we really haven\u2019t seen the extent of his skills. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I would think the UFC would set up a fight for Topuria to win, so I would take him to win by KO, but I\u2019ll have my live lines open and ready to fire on Thicknesse if I see Topuria start to get tired<\/strong> if he has an adrenalin dump i the first\u00a0round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCong Wang -455 vs Bruna Brasil +350\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSometimes a loss can be a good thing for an opponent, and I think Wang getting her\u00a0 first loss as a pro last fight was a good thing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She had a lot of hype, and for good\u00a0reason, but she hadn\u2019t faced the best competion, and getting submitted by Fernandes\u00a0 was a humbling moment, but she\u2019ll learn from it and get better. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Her striking is still really\u00a0good, and I believe she\u2019ll overwhelm Brasil on the feet with that striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Brasil is\u00a0 coming a nice win against McCann where she brutalized the body of Molly, but she still\u00a0couldn\u2019t get the finish, which was concerning considering how easily she damaged\u00a0McCann early on. I hate the price on Wang<\/strong> so even though I think she wins, I can\u2019t bet\u00a0on her or put it in parlays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nViacheslav Borshchev -135 vs Tom Nolan +115\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBoth these guys are terrible wrestlers and grapplers so this should be a strikers delight.\u00a0Nolan is raw as a fighter, and you can see him getting a bit better, but his lack of striking\u00a0defense is glaring. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He finally went the distance in his last fight to show his cardio is\u00a0 good, but he didn\u2019t look amazing against a pretty weak opponent in Alex Reyes.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Borshchev struggles against wrestlers, but does fine against strikers, and I think he\u2019s\u00a0just more comfortable with his game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He leaves himself open as well though so both\u00a0guys should be able to find success with the striking, but in the end I think the\u00a0 experience will be the difference, I\u2019ll take Borshchev to get the win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGabriel Santos -245 vs Jack Jenkins +200\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJenkins has really good leg kicks, his fight IQ is through the roof, and he\u2019s a tough\u00a0 fighter, but I think we\u2019ve seen his upside, and there\u2019s not much more improving he can\u00a0do. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s going to be much smaller here which makes it tough for him to strike, and\u00a0 Santos will be able to use those long legs to throw kicks up the middle and keep the\u00a0 distance between them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I also think Santos\u2019s ground game is a bit better as he showed\u00a0 how good he can be in top position in his last fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jenkins\u2019s last 2 wins were against\u00a0Herbert Burns, who is probably the worst fighter UFC has had the last few years, and\u00a0 then a decision win against Emmers that even he was surprised he won. Santos\u2019s\u00a0length will be too much for Jenkins to overcome, Santos is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jake Matthews -218 vs Francisco Prado +180\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMatthews is coming off a good win against Phil Rowe, but he tends to make some\u00a0 bonehead decisions in his fights, and Rowe was fighting pretty lazily, and didn\u2019t take\u00a0 advantage of his mistakes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Matthews can stand and strike, and he can also wrestle if\u00a0 the opportunity presents itself, but he should have plenty of success striking Prado.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Prado just stands and strikes, and he\u2019s lost 2 of his 3 UFC fights because of his lack of striking defnese as Mullarkey and Zellhuber were able to just tee off on him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His win came against Azaitar who just goes for broke in his fights, and he\u2019s going to need to turn\u00a0 this into a firefight, otherwise he\u2019s going to get picked apart from distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Matthews\u00a0 should win this one, but he makes too many mistakes for my liking so I won\u2019t be betting\u00a0 on him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Prado and Matthews are tough guys, and they both aren\u2019t big KO guys so I do\u00a0like this fight to go the distance<\/strong>, that would be the only way I would play this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRodolfo Bellato -170 vs Jimmy Crute +140<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJimmy Crute hasn\u2019t fought since July of 2023, and he hasn\u2019t won since 2020 so I really\u00a0 don\u2019t know what\u2019s going on here. Crute was on a podcast where he said that he\u2019s too\u00a0good to not be fighting, and he was supposed to fight Prachnio, but he backed out and\u00a0 is now fighting Bellato. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He says he\u2019s happier, he switched religions, and he has a new\u00a0 outlook so he\u2019s ready to take fighting 100%. I guess I just don\u2019t believe in him being a\u00a0\u00a0great fighter. His striking isn\u2019t great, and Alonso Menifield was out wrestling him the last\u00a0time we saw him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bellato isn\u2019t great, but he knocked out Potieria in his UFC debut after\u00a0 weathering an early storm, and he is hittable on the feet, but is Crute the guy to exploit that? I don\u2019t see it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That being said, I love the under in this fight<\/strong>. A guy off a long layoff\u00a0who was finished in his last fight versus a guy with bad striking defense, but KO power\u00a0 on the feet sets up perfect for an under play. Under 2.5 is my play for this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTallison Texeira -155 vs Justin Tafa +130\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIf Texeira has fixed his striking defense, he\u2019s going to beat Tafa, but in his Contender\u00a0Series fight he got into some big exchanges where his opponent was landing, and Tafa can put his lights out if he lands clean. However, Texeira can do the same thing here so\u00a0 I don\u2019t expect this fight to last long. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tafa is a one trick pony as he needs to KO his\u00a0 opponent early, and if he doesn\u2019t get it done early, he\u2019s in trouble. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Whoever you like to\u00a0win this fight, take him to win by KO for some extra value. My pick for this fight is under\u00a01.5, and even fight to end in round 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This fight is more of a coin flip the more I watch film on Texeira, and how open he leaves his chin so it\u2019s dog or pass as far as who wins this<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWeili Zhang -110 vs Tatiana Suarez -110<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWe\u2019ve made a lot of money on Weili in her last few fights and I think we\u2019ll do it again\u00a0 here. She\u2019s only lost to Rose Namajunas in the UFC, and since those back to back\u00a0 losses she\u2019s elevated her game to the next level as she\u2019s ripped off 4 straight wins\u00a0 against Jedrzejczyk, Esparza, Lemos and Yan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Her wrestling has been dominant, and\u00a0 her striking has been on point, and add to that her 5 round non-stop cardio and it\u2019s\u00a0 going to take a special performance from Suarez to beat her. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Weili faced Yan last April,\u00a0and I thought that would be Weili\u2019s toughest match since Namajunas, but Weili\u00a0 dominated from the start, and was within seconds of getting the choke submission at\u00a0 the end of the first en route to a dominant 49-45 unanimous decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t see any\u00a0 weaknesses in her game right now, and I see her with a big advantage in striking\u00a0 against Suarez, and I actually think her wrestling is as good, if not better than Suarez\u2019s.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Suarez has had a career full of injuries, and she had a 3 year absence before coming\u00a0 back and beating Montana De La Rosa, and Jessica Andrade, but Rosa is 4-5 in the\u00a0UFC, and Andrade was taking every fight offered to her at that time to pay for her\u00a0divorce, and I just didn\u2019t think Suarez looked like she was on Weili\u2019s level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Suarez\u2019s\u00a0path to victory is a submission on the ground in my opinion, and I don\u2019t see Weili letting\u00a0 that happen. Zhang is the pick for me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC 312 Main Event: Driscus Du Plessis vs Sean Strickland<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I know it\u2019s the main event, but I really don\u2019t have a strong opinion on this fight, and I\u00a0 don\u2019t think there\u2019s a great way to bet this fight except to take it to go the distance.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Strickland likes to box on the feet, but even says that he doesn\u2019t have KO power.\u00a0Driscus can get finishes, but Strickland has such good defense on the feet with striking\u00a0and takedown defense that it literally takes Alex Pereira to finish him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Driscus has to\u00a0 manage his cardio as he can fall off the longer the fight goes so everything sets up for\u00a0 this fight to make it to the judges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
As far as a winner, these 2 fought to a split decision\u00a0 so I think it\u2019s Strickland at +180 or nothing as far as the outright winner goes. Outside of\u00a0the fight to go the distance, I won\u2019t bet this one<\/strong>, I\u2019ll just sit back and watch as a fan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33417"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33417\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33418,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33417\/revisions\/33418"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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