Bolaji Oki -155 vs Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady +130<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI had high hopes for Oki after seeing him on Contender Series, but his UFC career\u00a0 hasn\u2019t started off great. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He won a close split decision against another CS fighter,\u00a0Timothy Cuamba, but Cuamba was on short notice and then he got submitted in the first\u00a0round against Duncan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He has good striking, and he\u2019s very athletic, but he\u2019s been\u00a0 sloppy, and Selwady is good enough to take advantage of mistakes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Selwady is active\u00a0on the feet, and can push a good pace, and even though he got knocked out in the third\u00a0 in his last fight, he was still getting takedowns late before Loik landed a big KO punch. I don\u2019t like what I\u2019ve seen from Oki in his two UFC fights, Selwady at plus money is the\u00a0 pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHamdy Abdelwahab -110 vs Jamal Pogues -110\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ll never forgive Hamdy for his last fight. I bet big against him, and he beat Mayes and\u00a0 showed energy, cardio and skills that I hadn\u2019t seen from him before and he popped for steroids after the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That was 2.5 years ago so I have no clue what version of him\u00a0 we\u2019re going to get here. He\u2019s a wrestler so look for him to try and shoot and get this to the ground, but Pogues has shown decent takedown defense in the past. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pogues is\u00a0 pretty bad despite his 2-1 UFC record as he has no offensive wrestling or ground game,\u00a0and his striking isn\u2019t special either. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s just a big, rough and tough big man that fights\u00a0kinda like a sumo wrestler with punches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a terrible fight, but Pogues will be the\u00a0 pick as I can\u2019t see Hamdy being UFC ready after a 2.5 year layoff. I won\u2019t be betting\u00a0this fight<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBogdan Grad -130 vs Lucas Alexander +100\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAlexander throws a lot of kicks, but they don\u2019t seem to be strong enough to knock anyone out at this level, and his volume with punches isn\u2019t great, and I think that\u2019s going\u00a0 to be a problem in this one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Grad lost on CS to Tom Nolan, but won 2 fights after that\u00a0 and got a second chance on CS and got the win in a really close fight that was action packed, and I was impressed with his volume and activity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think that\u2019s going to be the\u00a0 difference here as Grad\u2019s volume and potential takedowns are going to look better to the judges as I think Grad\u2019s cardio is better as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t see a finish in this one so\u00a0 Grad to win by decision could be a sneaky way to play this one to give us better odds, but Alexander has been KO\u2019d in his 2 UFC losses so Grad ML will be the play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC Fight Night & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jasmine Jasudavicius -225 vs Mayra Bueno Silva +186\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSilva is a tough fighter to trust these days as she looked great in her 3 fight win streak, but the level of competition was pretty bad. She beat Holly Holm, but tested positive for a banned substance, although the substance was for ADHD and it wasn\u2019t steroids.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Since that fight she lost to Pennington in a bad performance, and she lost to Chiasson\u00a0 where she looked great at the start of the fight, but quickly faded and got taken down\u00a0and badly cut in the second round which caused the fight to be stopped. Silva just\u00a0seems like a head case recently when she fights as she\u2019ll look great at some times, and\u00a0then awful other times. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She has good striking and good submissions, but she doesn\u2019t\u00a0always show it so it\u2019s tough to predict her. We know what to expect from Jasmine on\u00a0the other hand as she wants the fight to go to the ground where she works the wrestling\u00a0 and ground control, and we saw a nice submission win in her last fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Silva is a wild\u00a0card at this point, and I don\u2019t trust her to put together 3 solid rounds so Jasmine will be\u00a0 the pick as I think the first round will be close, but Jasmine pulls away in rounds 2 and 3<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mike Davis -148 vs Fares Ziam +124<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis should be a great fight as Ziam has really improved his game over the last couple\u00a0years. His power and aggression has gotten a lot better, and it\u2019s resulted in a 4 fight win\u00a0streak where he\u2019s shows wrestling and grappling as well as striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Davis is really\u00a0good as well, I wish he would fight more often as he has only fought 3 times since 2020,\u00a0but when he fights he\u2019s great. Really good striking and a a solid ground game, and I\u00a0think he\u2019s going to be a bit too much for Ziam. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think he has a bit more power than Ziam, and he showed in his last fight he can get good ground control and a submission.\u00a0He\u2019s got a bit more upside so he\u2019ll be the pick here<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTerrance McKinney -360 vs Damir Hadzovic +285\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHadzovic is 38 years old, and haasn\u2019t fought in 2.5 years, and his only win in his last 4\u00a0 fights is against Yancy Medeiros who is awful. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This fight all comes down to McKinney,\u00a0 and his cardio or lack thereof. He\u2019ll come out fast and look for the finish, and if he\u00a0 doesn\u2019t get it quick, his gas tank goes to empty real quick. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m not sure Hadzovic will\u00a0 survive the early onslaught so McKinney by finish will be the play. However, if you\u2019re watching this live and you start to see McKinney get tired, take Hadzovic live<\/strong> as McKinney doesn\u2019t have a second wind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nShamil Gaziev -380 vs Thomas Petersen +300\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPetersen is a really limited fighter in my opinion, and I think he gets smoked here. He\u2019s\u00a0 1-1 in the UFC, and even in his win he got cut and beat up at times against Usman. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u00a0doesn\u2019t do anything special, he telegraphs his strikes, and he took Usman down in his\u00a0 last fight, but Usman was able to get up fairly easily, and Usman isn\u2019t known for his\u00a0 ground game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gaziev is the better striker, clincher and he shouldn\u2019t have any trouble\u00a0 defending anything Petersen does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Look for Gaziev to really damage Petersen up on the feet, and likely get the finish. Gaziev ML<\/strong> is a great parlay piece.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMuhammad Naimov -258 vs Kaan Ofli +210\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNaimov will hold his head in shame if he loses to Ofli in this one. Ofli is coming off of\u00a0 The Ultimate Fighter, and his first official UFC fight against Santos, he got knocked out\u00a0in the second round, but he got absolutely nothing going on offense in that fight, he\u00a0 couldn\u2019t defend leg kicks in the slightest, and his striking was mediocre at best. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Naimov\u00a0 is coming off his first UFC loss where he was fighting well, against Lima, but he made\u00a0 one slip up and Lima got his back and sunk in the rear naked choke. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Naimov can wrestle, and while his striking isn\u2019t great, it isn\u2019t going to need to be great against Ofli.\u00a0Both guys have 11 wins and 3 losses, but Naimov has 3 UFC wins and I like him to get\u00a0the win here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSaid Nurmagomedov -198 vs Vinicius Oliveira +164<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nOliveira is a powerhouse who is looking for the KO on every strike he throws, but his technique is sloppy. He leaves himself wide open with his hands at his side, and he\u00a0 fights really cocky and wild. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His 2 UFC wins are against Sopaj who took the fight on short notice, and then he beat Ricky Simon where I swear Simon was hurt as Simon\u00a0 didn\u2019t get his normal chain wrestling success, and Oliveira was able to just tee off on\u00a0 him on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Nurmagomedov has holes in his game as well though. His wrestling\u00a0isn\u2019t as amazing as other Nurmagomedov\u2019s, and his 2 losses to Martinez and Barcelos\u00a0were when his opponents just outworked him with pace and volume. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s 32 years old, and while I think he should win I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see Oliveira have moments of\u00a0success on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Nurmagomedov gets it to the ground, he could easily get the\u00a0 submission, but if Oliveira shows good takedown defense I think Said could be in trouble on the feet. Oliveira can be undisciplined, but I like his upside so it\u2019s dog or pass in this one<\/strong> if you\u2019re betting it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSergei Pavlovich -298 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +240\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPavlovich has lost 2 straight after 6 straight first round KO\u2019s, but losing to Aspinall was expected, and while Volkov is a great fighter, he really exposed a weakness in\u00a0 Pavlovich. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Volkov used his length to keep Pavlovich at distance, and he moved around\u00a0 constantly, and is exposed Pavlovich\u2019s lack of fluidity in his movement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He couldn\u2019t get\u00a0 the big early KO punch, and he was beaten pretty easily. I\u2019m not sure Rozenstruik can\u00a0 replicate that movement as he can be flat footed, his strikes aren\u2019t that complicated to\u00a0 see coming, and I don\u2019t think Pavlovich will be scarred of his power. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
One thing that is interesting to me is that Rozenstruik took Tuivasa to decision in his last fight, and that\u00a0 was Tuivasa\u2019s first decision in 11 fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He was able to stay away from the big strikes of Tuivasa, and he barely got the decision win, but in the end Pavlovich is way better\u00a0than Tuivasa and I think it\u2019s only a matter of time before Pavlovich catches Rozenstruik\u00a0with the KO shot. Pavlovich by KO is the pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nShara Magomedov -192 vs Michael Page +160\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nShara got the crazy double spinning backfist highlight KO against Petrosyan in his last\u00a0fight, and while it was awesome I\u2019m more interested in the rest of the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Petrosyan\u00a0was having some success on the feet with his striking on Shara, and while Shara was\u00a0constantly able to return fire with his kicks, Petrosyan showed that Shara has some defensive issues. Shara\u2019s cardio is fantastic, and he\u2019s always active so Page is going to\u00a0 have to keep up with the volume and constant movement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Page didn\u2019t show the volume\u00a0 and activity against Ian Garry, but Garry wasn\u2019t pushing the pace either so I back to the\u00a0Kevin Holland fight that he won, and again I just don\u2019t see the volume of strikes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Page\u00a0is a tough guy to fight as his stance is odd, his strikes come from weird angles, but I\u00a0 think Magomedov just does more with the striking and it looks better to the judges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u00a0don\u2019t epect much clinching or grappling as both are pretty bad at it, so I see 3 rounds on\u00a0 the feet with Shara out landing Page, especially with the kicks. Magomedov is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC Fight Night Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I said it after Izzy knocked out Alex Pereira, that it was the peak of his career and there\u00a0was really nothing else left for him to prove, and that I expected Izzy to go downhill\u00a0quick. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s lost his 2 fights since then, I\u2019ve bet against him in both, and I\u2019ll be betting against him again. Physically, he hasn\u2019t looked chisled and in the best shape, and he hasn\u2019t looked as intense or dialed in. Once these elite fighters get knocked off the top of the mountain, it\u2019s almost impossible to get back there and I think Imavov is going to\u00a0win a pretty boring fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Imavov has had cardio issues, but Izzy isn\u2019t pushing a hard\u00a0pace these days, and Imavov is the better wrestler so if gets this to the ground, he\u2019ll be\u00a0 better there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Izzy was in his prime, he would have the striking advantage, but those\u00a0 days seem to be gone so I actually think Imavov has more pop on his strikes these\u00a0days. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Izzy\u2019s energy falling off a cliff in the 4th round against Du Plessis is a gigantic red flag, and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if it happens again. Imavov at plus money is a fantastic\u00a0bet<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33347","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33347"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33347\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33349,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33347\/revisions\/33349"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33347"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33347"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33347"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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