Bogdon Guskov vs Billy Elekana<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGuskov looked terrible and lost in his UFC debut, but credit him for ripping off two straight wins with his striking, and I think this is #3 in a row for him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Elekena is stepping up on short notice, but I don\u2019t think he\u2019s that good. His notable win is a split decision against Chuck Campbell in PFL, and from what Iv\u2019e seen he doesn\u2019t throw enough volume of strikes to scare Guskov, and he doesn\u2019t have a ground game to take advantage of Guskov\u2019s weakness. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Look for Guskov to be the more powerful and active striker and get the win here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTagier Ulanbekov -325 vs Clayton Carpenter +260 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI like Carpenter, but I feel like this is just going to be a bit too much for him in the wrestling and grappling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s a solid wrestler, and is coming off a nice submission win, but Ulanbekov\u2019s ground game is more complex, and dominant. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s going to be quicker, more flexible, and the experience is going to be the difference maker. Carpenter should try and make this a three-round striking fight, but eventually Ulanbekov will get this on the ground and I think he gets the submission win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGrant Dawson -360 vs Diego Ferreira +285<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is my favorite parlay piece on the card. Dawson\u2019s only loss in the UFC was when Bobby Green sparked him 30 seconds into the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Other than that, he gets the wrestling and takedowns and dominates on the ground. Once he gets the body triangle or top position, the round is pretty much over and I don\u2019t think Ferreira is going to be able to defend those positions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ferreira will have to get his striking going from the beginning, but I think it will only be a matter of time before Dawson gets his hands on Ferreira and drags him into deep waters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ferreira is 39 years old and is coming off two wins, but he beat Rebecki when Rebecki gassed himself trying to be a kickboxer, and gifted the fight to Ferreira, and Dawson won\u2019t do that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He KO\u2019d Michael Johnson before that, but he\u2019s struggled with wrestlers in the past as Gamrot took him down and injurred him to where he had to tap, and Gellespie took him down and finished him on the ground as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I love that Dawson sticks to the gameplan, and even though some people don\u2019t like the non-stop wrestling, he\u2019s said that\u2019s how he wins, and he isn\u2019t changing. I don\u2019t see the 39 year old Ferreira staying on his feet<\/strong> in this fight for very long. Dawson should roll here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBernardo Sopaj -325 vs Ricky Turcios +260 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSopaj probably wins, but -325 is way too high for me. Sopaj made his UFC debut on short notice against Oliveira and got knocked out in one of the most violent knee I\u2019ve ever seen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That was last March so he\u2019s healed, but that\u2019s the kind of KO that changes a fighter. He has good striking, and he showed good cardio in that fight, and Turcios is pretty bad so I expect him to be able to land strikes, and possibly work a takedown or two in the mix like he did against Oliveira. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Turcios just doesn\u2019t do anything great<\/strong> as his striking isn\u2019t sharp, and his grappling and wrestling aren\u2019t high-level\u2026he just doesn\u2019t <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nhave any upside. Both guys have question marks, I\u2019ll pick Sopaj to win, but I won\u2019t be betting this fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Payton Talbott -1100 vs Raoni Barcelos +700 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTalbott is the young star, and Barcelos is 37 with a lot of miles on his body, but the cagy veteran still has gas left in the tank as he got the submission win against Quinonez in his last fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I know Talbott has all the hype, and for good reason as he\u2019s finished all three of his UFC opponents, but Aguirre, Saaiman, and Ghemmouri are awful, and don\u2019t be surprised if Barcelos has some tricks up his sleeve for Talbott. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Barcelos has the ability to get takedowns, his footwork and movement still look good, and I really think he\u2019s going to give Talbott some problems. Can he win? I\u2019m not sure, but there\u2019s no chance I put Talbott in parlays at this price. Dog or nothing in this fight<\/strong> for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nZach Reese -285 vs Sedriques Dumas +230 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ve been impressed with Reese in his career despite the holes in his game. He has big time finishing power and submissions, and his biggest weakness is honestly his lack of cage time as only one fight has gone out of the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His last fight against Medina went the distance, and I thought it was great for him to go 15 minutes as he beat the hell out of Medina for 15 minutes, but you could see his cardio is a bit of an issue. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He was active in the 3rd round, but he definitely lost some steam off his strikes, and he was getting hit a bit too much for my liking, but he was still getting takedowns so credit to him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Somehow, Dumas has gone the distance against Tiuliulin, Azaitar, and Brundage which is crazy because all those guys are under machines. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It goes to show that Dumas has good cardio, good defense, but he doesn\u2019t have finishing power or submissions at this level, and I think we see more of that. He will try to clinch and keep close to Reese to avoid Reese\u2019s big shots, but I don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to be enough to get the win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Reese will have the bigger moments, and I think Reese\u2019s takedowns are better so Dumas is going to have to surprise Reese with something new. I like Reese to get the job done<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKarol Rosa -185 vs Ailin Perez +145 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPerez has a simple game plan, and that\u2019s get the fight to the ground, work the ground and pound, and win the first two rounds and hang on for the third. Perez has really good takedowns, and she can hold position, but her striking on the feet is bad and her cardio is a problem in the third. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is an interesting matchup as Rosa will have the advantage on the feet as her punches and kicks are decent, and if she stuffs the takedowns she\u2019ll cruise. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I just don\u2019t think Rosa is that good, and I expect Perez to be able to get the early takedowns<\/strong> so I\u2019ll take her as the dog in his spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJailton Almeida -395 vs Serghei Spivac +310 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI thought the books would give Spivac a bit more respect here after his easy win against Tybura, but they expect what I expect and that\u2019s for Almeida to be the better wrestler here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Spivac beat Tybura with an arm bar, but Tybura was on top of him and controlling position, and I see Almeida being able to do the same thing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
They both want to fight on the ground, but I think Almeida is going to be a bit quicker and more athletic with the wrestling, and Spivac has shown cardio issues if he doesn\u2019t get the early finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He has pretty bad striking defense so Almeida might find success striking on the feet as well. I just think this is a nightmare matchup for Spivac where his opponent is a little better at what Spivac does best, and it would take something really surprising for him to win here. Almeida is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rinya Nakamura -470 vs Muin Gafurov +360 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGafurov got his first UFC win against Kang in his last fight after dropping his first two UFC fights, but it wasn\u2019t the most confident win ever as Kang was having success in the third round before Gafurov finished strong. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gafurov took Kang down and held him there the entire first round, but he\u2019ll have no chance of doing that against Nakamura who is 9-0, and is a fantastic wrestler. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Nakamura is relentless with his pressure, he stays active on the ground, and he has really good ground and pound and cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The way to beat him is to keep it on the feet and try and out strike him, but I don\u2019t think Gafurov is that talented of a striker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gafurov does have good cardio, and he\u2019ll be the best fighter that Nakamura has faced so I don\u2019t think Gafurov gets finished, but he has short arms and legs so he has to get in close to do any damage and then he\u2019s in Nakamura\u2019s world. The odds make sense, Nakamura by decision in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKevin Holland -120 vs Reiner de Ridder +100 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI wasn\u2019t impressed with Ridder in his debut against Meerschaert. I thought he looked slow on the feet, and Meerschaert was able to stuff and reverse some of his takedowns, and even though he got the finish, Kevin Holland is light years faster and better than Meerschaert these days. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Holland\u2019s striking is going to be so much better than Ridder\u2019s, and Holland needs a good performance as he\u2019s lost 3 out of 4 fights after suffering a rib injury in his last fight against Dolidze. Holland can grapple so I don\u2019t think Ridder is going to have a big advantage in that department. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Holland is healthy and focused, I think he\u2019s the better fighter, but there\u2019s always something crazy happening with a Kevin Holland fight so I\u2019ve made it a rule that I don\u2019t bet on Holland fights<\/strong>. He\u2019s my pick, but I won\u2019t be betting it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRenato Moicano -225 vs Beneil Dariush <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHas Dariush just fallen off a cliff or will he regain his form? It\u2019s not that he lost to Oliviera and Tsarukyan, it\u2019s how easy it was for them to finish him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dariush started off against Oliviera stong, getting top position, but he got tired just a few minutes in, and you could tell he was exhuasted and Oliviera hit him with a kick and then ground and pound. And then agaisnt Tsarukyan, he looked slow from the start, and Tsarukyan landed an easy knee up the middle and Dariush was done. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Moicano got a bit lucky in his win against Drew Dober, and he should have lost to Jalin Turner as Turner blasted Moicano, and instead of following it up with a couple of ground and pound shots to get the win, he turned his back and tried to do the walk-off move, but the ref didn\u2019t stop the fight and Moicano survived and got the win in the next round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, what he did to Saint Denis was impressive. He got Saint Denis down early in the fight and never stopped with the ground and pound until the doctor stopped the fight. If Dariush is truly as bad as he\u2019s looked in the last two fights, this version of Moicano will run through him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dariush is going to have to stay away from getting taken down because that\u2019s Moicano\u2019s world, and while Moicano\u2019s striking on the feet isn\u2019t great, it\u2019s not terrible, and Dariush hasn\u2019t knocked anyone out since 2020 and that was Scott Holtzman. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Fading fighters when they start to look old and slow has been a money maker for us, and Dariush I\u2019ll gladly pick Moicano to get the win here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJiri Prochazka -110 vs Jamahal Hill -110 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m just not a Jamahal Hill guy. He won 4 in a row before getting obliterated by Alex Pereira, but beating Jimmy Crute, Johnny Walker, Thiago Santos, and Glover Texeira in his retirement fight isn\u2019t impressive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
These guys are both happy they aren\u2019t fighting Alex Pereira as their last 3 combined losses are to him, but I think Jiri has the more diverse striking offense that comes from weird angles, and is tough to gameplan for. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hill certainly has power, but he couldn\u2019t KO Glover or Pereira, and after coming off of the achilles injury, I have concerns about if he\u2019s the same fighter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This should be a violent fight that doesn\u2019t go the distance, but I think Jiri catches Hill with a unique punch or elbow<\/strong> that Hill isn\u2019t ready for. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUmar Nurmagomedov -325 vs Merab Dvalishvili +275 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI can\u2019t wrap my head around Merab being this big of an underdog against anyone. I know Umar is great, he\u2019s 18-0, and doesn\u2019t seem to have any weaknesses, but Merab\u2019s style is so tough to deal with. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Merab is going to do what he always does which is push an insane pace with non-stop chain wrestling so this line suggests that it\u2019s not going to work at all against Umar, and I don\u2019t buy it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Umar\u2019s takedowns are really good as well so I see him having success at times, but Merab\u2019s cardio and pressure has been too much for everyone recently. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
These guys are pretty even in my opinion, there\u2019s no chance I\u2019m laying -325 on anyone in this matchup. Merab at plus money<\/strong> is the only way I would play this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC 311 Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This fight is probably going to come down to Tsarukyan\u2019s takedown defense. If he can fight off the shoots and takedowns, he can absolutely pull the upset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Makhachev hasn\u2019t lost in nearly a decade, but I haven\u2019t been super impressed with him recently. He got the late finish on Poirier, but he struggled at times, and wasn\u2019t as dominant. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Before that, he beat Volkanovski twice, but Volk almost won the first fight, and Volk was out of shape in the second fight when he took it on short notice. Poirier had some success striking against Makhachev, but Makhachev was always able to get the takedown to neutralize him, and Tsarukyan is a better wrestler than Poirier. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I can see Tsarukyan fighting off some of the takedowns and making this fight uncomfortable for Makhachev, and if he does that early, I think that can open up the striking for Tsarukyan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The +320 is too good of a price to pass up, I think Tsarukyan is a really tough matchup for Islam so in a fight that I think is going to be close, I\u2019ll take the underdog here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33116"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33116\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33223,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33116\/revisions\/33223"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"WagerTalk](\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/images\/email-open-wagertalk.png\")
\n Sign up for WagerTalk news alerts and get free picks, discounts and\n