{"id":32938,"date":"2024-12-31T11:58:26","date_gmt":"2024-12-31T16:58:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=32938"},"modified":"2024-12-31T11:58:29","modified_gmt":"2024-12-31T16:58:29","slug":"the-sentry-predictions-best-bets-free-picks-and-odds-january-2-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/golf\/the-sentry-predictions-best-bets-free-picks-and-odds-january-2-5\/","title":{"rendered":"The Sentry Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds January 2-5"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Sentry Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman<\/a> offers his thoughts on The Sentry<\/strong> teeing off from Kapalua Resort in Kapalua, HI! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding The Sentry<\/strong> starting on January 2nd!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stay on top of the latest Golf<\/a> updates direct from Las Vegas!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

The Sentry<\/th>The Sentry Betting Notes<\/th><\/tr>
When:<\/td>January 2-5<\/td><\/tr>
Where:<\/td>Kapalua Resort in Kapalua, HI<\/td><\/tr>
Defending Champ:<\/td>Chris Kirk<\/td><\/tr>
Current Favorite:<\/td>Xander Schauffele (+550 at DraftKings<\/a>)<\/td><\/tr>
TV:<\/td>Golf Channel, NBC<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Sentry Odds Board<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel<\/a> , DraftKings <\/a>and others)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Sentry Betting Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The PGA Tour returns for the 2025 season with the first of eight Signature Events of the season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The prize purse remains the same this year at $20M with the winner taking home a whopping $3.6M. Plenty to play for in the first event of the new year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To qualify for this event, one must have won a PGA Tour event in 2024 or finished the season ranked inside the Top-50 of the FedEx Cup standings.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of the 64 players to meet either of those criteria, four are absent this week.\u00a0 Scottie Scheffler is the notable player missing and it\u2019s not because he chose to skip.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

You have probably heard of the incident over Christmas which required surgery to remove glass shards from his hand, though luckily, he is only expected to miss 3-4 weeks.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry all took a pass on teeing it up at Kapalua.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Sentry features no cut as everyone in the field is guaranteed four rounds to work themselves back into competitive shape. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s hard to find a lot of info on how the players spent their off-season\u2019s as some in the field have been playing, while many have not played much in terms of competitive golf since the Tour Championship.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With that understanding, don\u2019t put too much stock into short term trends like the last three months of the Strokes Gained graphic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Plantation Course always plays easy relative to par with winning scores of at least 25-under each of the last four years.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason scores are low is the course features very wide fairways and large greens.\u00a0Hard to find too much trouble, especially when the wind isn\u2019t blowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The course seems long by the yardage on the scorecard at roughly 7,600 yards, but it doesn\u2019t play that way with a lot of elevation change that helps shorten the playing yardage. The Plantation Course is also unique as a Par-73 with only three par 3s to go along with four par 5s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weather looks fantastic all four days.\u00a0Temperatures should reach the low 80s, and winds will be almost non-existent except for a 10-15 mph forecast during Thursday\u2019s opener, before disappearing the following three days.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rain is always a possibility, but likely just in the form of a quick shower, nothing too imminent.\u00a0Without the course\u2019s only defense, expect players to go low once again this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Sentry Outright Winner<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Justin Thomas +1000<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data tells us to stick with one of the top players in the field when betting Outrights in Signature Events, so we will leave the longshots to the Top-10\/20 markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That leaves me stuck on JT this week, which as the second favorite, isn\u2019t that sexy of a pick, but he deserves the nod.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thomas played twice this fall, finished T2 at the ZOZO Championship at the end of October and then most recently a solo 3rd<\/sup> at the Hero World Challenge where everyone finished well behind Scottie Scheffler.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With fairways as wide as they are and swails likely putting both short and long hitters in similar landing zones, the statistic I like the most this week is Approach play which correlates with Proximity to the Hole.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Important to set yourself up with plenty of good birdie looks considering better than 25-under is likely needed to win.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That being said, Justin Thomas fits that mold ranking #1 in the field in SG Approach over the last six months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly that has helped him with prior success at this event as Thomas is not only a two-time winner, but has also finished inside Top-5 an additional three times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Sentry Top 20 Finish<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Akshay Bhatia +115<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bhatia made a name for himself last year with eleven Top-20 finishes including a win at the Valero Texas Open, his 2nd<\/sup> PGA Tour win after claiming victory on another island at the Barracuda Championship in 2023.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He followed up the 2024 season with a T2 in Japan in November and solo 4th<\/sup> at the Hero World Challenge just a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Akshay can get a little streaky with his ball-striking but his putter is usually on the money and that is certainly needed this week.  In a tournament that will likely feature a winning score pushing 30-under par, his ball-striking deficiencies could be masked while his putter makes up for it and keeps him pushing low scores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s exactly what happened here last year in his debut where he finished T14 thanks to averaging +1.33 SG Putting per round.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I like his converging trends of current form and course history to keep him near the top this week at a good price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See you next week for the Sony Open in Hawaii!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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