College Football Playoff Overview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
SMU started slowly, but then became mostly unstoppable, winning by margin.\u00a0 They survived Duke despite a -6 turnover margin, but turnovers did them in in the ACC title game vs. Clemson.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
For at least five of the past seven seasons (and more), Penn State would have been squarely inside any 12-team playoff bracket.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
They once again fell to nemesis Ohio State, but their only other loss was in the Big Ten title game, which was highly competitive.\u00a0 This is another intriguing matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SMU Football Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Everything is great when SMU doesn\u2019t go about beating itself.\u00a0 Aside from turnovers, SMU amassed 1,027 penalty yards, which is absurd.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
QB Preston Stone lost his job, with Kevin Jennings hitting 66% for the year.\u00a0 This is a step up from the AAC, but I still project Jennings at about 60% here, with one interception.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
RB Smith was a workhorse in \u201924.\u00a0 He ran 5.85 per carry.\u00a0 This is not an easy task, as Penn State is efficient vs. the run and pass.\u00a0I have him with 17 carries, for only in the low 70\u2019s on rush yards.\u00a0 I think his floor is three receptions.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I like teams with either one elite WR target (a \u201cman among boys\u201d type in the college ranks), or having a bunch of WR\/TE targets where a defense can\u2019t just key on a couple of guys.\u00a0 SMU has seven viable targets.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the game plan is efficient, I think they can find a matchup worth exploiting.\u00a0 Maybe the move to the AAC wasn\u2019t as massive a jump in scheduling as I thought it would be in August, but regardless, SMU\u2019s run defense (2.95 per carry) and pass defense (56.3%) were impressive.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bowl teams averaged about 25 points per game on them (regulation) but only Clemson comes close to Penn State\u2019s Power Number.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The good news is that Clemson ran just 2.0 per carry on SMU, corrected for sacks.\u00a0 The pass defense wasn\u2019t a shutdown type vs. the more accurate teams on their schedule.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t think Penn State is a juggernaut offensively, but SMU will have its hands full.\u00a0 I see this as meaning the SMU offense must avoid mistakes, to keep Penn State from getting in rhythm.\u00a0Overall, SMU had a 40-15 sack ratio.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kicking was 23-31, which is maybe too many attempts.\u00a0 Penn State is the type of team that can stop opposing teams in the red zone.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Penn State Football Preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
QB Allar hit 69%, with a 21-7 ratio.\u00a0Much like SMU\u2019s QB, I project over 60%, but not to Allar\u2019s typical numbers.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is the 3rd<\/sup> straight season that RB\u2019s Allen and Singleton have shared the workload.\u00a0 They have been perhaps the most consistent duo over a long span of time as I\u2019ve ever seen in the college game.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n If experience matters, they may exceed my combined projection of 26-120, with about five receptions.\u00a0 If Penn State slows down the SMU offense, you can count on them grinding in the run game.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n TE Warren is elite, and my current #1 TE for the upcoming draft (top 15 grade).\u00a0 He\u2019s practically unstoppable, so SMU\u2019s main task is to prevent splash plays.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n The rest of the pass catchers are decent, but nothing too special.\u00a0This was your typical Penn State defense, despite realignment and a new coordinator.\u00a0It\u2019s hard to run on them, but good QB\u2019s with good pass schemes occasionally get their way in the pass game, leading to points being scored.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Taken another way, Penn State has a habit of beating teams they should beat, and James Franklin has a way of rubbing it in late in games when nothing is on the line.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019m really not sure if SMU\u2019s Bennett is a \u201cgood\u201d QB, but that will be found out in this spot.\u00a0 Back to the offense.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Their new offensive coordinator was, as expected, an upgrade.\u00a0It led to a solid 3rd<\/sup> down conversion rate.\u00a0Kicking was average by their own standards.\u00a0The sack ratio was 33-12.\u00a0 RB Singleton is a threat in the return game (SMU 48% touchback rate).<\/p>\n\n\n\n SMU can not afford to beat itself, either with penalties, or with their occasional cluster of turnovers.\u00a0 They need to find the right matchup to exploit offensively, while hoping their fine RB opens some holes.\u00a0Penn State has to put pressure on QB Bennett.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n If they do, they win the turnover battle.\u00a0If not, the variety of targets SMU has will be to their advantage.\u00a0 Will another target emerge outside of TE Warren, or is he enough to do significant damage?\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Ultimately, this game may hinge a bit on turnovers (SMU) plus what SMU can accomplish in the red zone.\u00a0On paper, that\u2019s a Penn State advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\nSMU vs Penn State: Keys To The Game<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
SMU vs Penn State Predictions: SMU +9 to +10<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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