Josefin Knutsson -238 vs Piera Rodriguez +195\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKnutsson will have the volume advantage, and she\u2019ll land a lot of strikes, but I think she\u00a0 loses this fight because of her lack of takedown defense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In her last fight against\u00a0 Polastri, she got taken down several times, and the takedowns were fairly easy for Polastri, and she did damage to Knutsson while on the ground. R<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
odriguez has solid takedowns as long as she stops headbutting opponents, but she should have success\u00a0here and her ground and pound is good. I think she can win a couple of rounds with the\u00a0 takedowns so I\u2019ll take the underdog here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRamon Taveras -125 vs Davey Grant +105\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ll gladly take Grant here as I don\u2019t trust Taveras. Taveras got his revenge against\u00a0 Sidey in his first UFC fight who he lost to on Contender Series, and while he\u2019s a good\u00a0 striker, I loved what I saw from Grant in his last fight against Daniel Marcos. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Grant lost\u00a0 a split to Marcos, but he\u2019s been the first one to really push Marcos, land a lot of strikes\u00a0 and do real damage. His cardio looked good, and he has a submission game that\u00a0Taveras does not. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Grant\u2019s kicks are going to be a big weapon for him, and I expect the\u00a0 UFC veteran to hold his own on the feet, and win a round or two with his ground game.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Taveras has good striking, but I\u2019m not sure he\u2019s a lot better than Grant so don\u2019t be\u00a0surprised if Taveras gets humbled in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMiranda Maverick -425 vs Jamey Lyn Horth +330\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI love Maverick in this fight as her grappling and wrestling is going to be too much for\u00a0 Horth. Horth is coming off of two split decision fights agaisnt Hardy and Petrovic, and I think Maverick runs through both of them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Horth\u2019s striking isn\u2019t that great, and she\u00a0stands tall which I think will make the shoot-ins for Maverick easier. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Maverick\u2019s 3 UFC losses are one of the worst decisions in UFC history to Maycee Barber, a decision win\u00a0 to Blanchfield who is a Top 5 fighter, and to Jasudavicius where she got poked in the\u00a0 eye and was seeing double the entire fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She\u2019s cruised in her other 6 fights to wins,\u00a0and I just don\u2019t see much upside from Horth here. Maybe if she had great striking to\u00a0keep Maverick at distance or if she had an amazing clinch game, I would give her a\u00a0better chance, but I just haven\u2019t seen those weapons from her. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Maverick will get this to\u00a0the ground<\/strong>, wrap up a body triangle or some other type of control and grind out rounds en route to a win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGet $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC Fight Night & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Fernando Lima -240 vs Miles Johns +200<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLima should have the striking advantage, but I\u2019m worried about laying this price\u00a0 because of John\u2019s wrestling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lima is a really quick guy on the feet, and he\u2019ll be able to\u00a0 land kicks and punches, and he\u2019ll need that speed to stay away from Johns, and if he does he could make this look like a big mismatch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, if Johns can make this\u00a0 fight dirty, get some clinching and wrestling working, he\u2019s got a chance to steal some\u00a0 rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lima is coming off a nice submission win against Naimov, which was a nice\u00a0 win, but Naimov was able to hold top position in the first round, and I believe Johns is\u00a0 better than Naimov on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I like Lima to win this fight, but the price is a bit too\u00a0high for my liking. This could be a solid live bet spot<\/strong>. If Johns gets the wrestling going,\u00a0 he could be a live dog, or if Johns has a good first round and gets a bit tired, take Lima.\u00a0Pre-fight is a pass for me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sean Woodson -166 vs Fernando Padilla +140<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWoodson hasn\u2019t lost his last six fights, and yet I still don\u2019t like betting on him. He\u2019s so\u00a0 tall, and his arms and legs are long that he can hit opponents from way far out, but it\u00a0 always feels underwhelming. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
You have to get inside on Woodson and not let him land\u00a0 those leg and body kicks or he\u2019ll win the rounds as his strikes just look great to the\u00a0 judges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m a Fernando Padilla fan, and I still say he won the fight against Kyle Nelson,\u00a0which is his only loss in the UFC so I\u2019ll take a shot with him to pull the upset. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He submitted Luis Pajuelo, and knocked out Erosa, and he has long legs and arms like\u00a0Woodson does, and I think he\u2019ll be able to land some good shots on Woodson. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s a\u00a0 guy who searches for finishes, and I think that kind of aggression is the way to beat\u00a0Woodson. He\u2019ll take some chances, and I think he makes this fight uncomfortable and\u00a0 messy for Woodson, he\u2019s worth a look as an underdog<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJoel Alvarez -375 vs Drakkar Klose +295<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAlvarez by violence in this one. Klosehas done a nice job coming back from the scary injury as he\u2019s won four straight, but this is a massive step up for him, and I don\u2019t think he\u00a0has the weapons to slow down Alvarez. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Klose just beat Joaquim Silva, but Silva was on\u00a0 his back foot most of the fight, and honestly, Klose didn\u2019t do a ton with it as it went to\u00a0 decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Alvarez\u2019s losses are to wrestlers\/grapplers who can control him on the\u00a0 ground, and everyone else he obliterates on the ground. His pressure will push Klose\u00a0 back, and Klose will eat shots and either get finished on the feet or Alvarez will get it on\u00a0the ground where he dominates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Alvarez\u2019s last fight against Brener was a fantastic\u00a0performance as he got the finish in round three showing he has the cardio to get late\u00a0finish, I\u2019ll take Alvarez by finish in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMichael Johnson -185 vs Ottman Azaitar +154\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is a strange fight as Azaitar is kill or be killed, and his fights are super exciting and\u00a0 fast, and Michael Johnson is the exact opposite. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Johnson was just in a terrible fight\u00a0 where he beat Darius Flowers, who is awful, and he couldn\u2019t even do much damage to\u00a0 him despite Flowers completely gassing and having no offense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Azaitar has been\u00a0 finished in the first round in his last two fights as he has no striking defense, but\u00a0 Johnson is 38 years old, and I don\u2019t think he has the power to KO the chinny Azaitar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u00a0think this is a sneaky fight to go over 1.5 rounds as Azaitar has been fighting guys with\u00a0KO power, and I don\u2019t think Johnson has it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Don\u2019t be surprised if Johnson mixes in a\u00a0 takedown or two early on and this fight goes longer than people expect. No opinion on\u00a0 the winner, but overs is how I would look at this fight<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNavajo Stirling -500 vs Tuco Tokkos +380\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHere are my notes on Stirling from Contender Series: Fade Machine. Slow striking. No\u00a0output, no combinations, did not handle pressure well. No set up on shots, eyes closed\u00a0 on strikes, low volume. Bad footwork. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That being said, Tokkos was truly awful in his\u00a0UFC debut as he got taken down and finished immediately in the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I went\u00a0 back and watched Tokkos\u2019s older fight, and his one previous to his UFC debut featured\u00a0 one of the most gruesome arm injuries you\u2019ll ever see in a fight as Tokkos picked him\u00a0 up and slammed him. Before that, Tokkos beat a 1-7 fighter in a \u201cfight\u201d that was\u00a0 ridiculous to make. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The point is, Tokkos is terrible, but I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if he shoots takedowns, and if he gets them, he might be able to hold control for a bit, but\u00a0Stirling is young and athletic, and while he needs a lot of work, he\u2019s better than Tokkos.\u00a0No chance I\u2019m laying -500 though, just take this fight to not go the distance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDaniel Marcos -170 vs Adrian Yanez +142<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nYanez KO\u2019d Salvador in his last fight breaking a two fight losing streak, but Salvador is\u00a0 a joke, and when Yanez has fought polished fighters, he\u2019s lost, and he\u2019s been finished\u00a0by Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Yanez is a power striker, and when he lands, he\u00a0 lands with power, but that\u2019s about all he has. He doesn\u2019t really set up his strikes, he\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
doesn\u2019t have kicks, he doesn\u2019t have wrestling, and if he doesn\u2019t KO Marcos, I think\u00a0 Marcos works him for three rounds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Marcos has a solid striking game that is more\u00a0 sophisticated than Yanez\u2019s, and I think Marcos can avoid the early big strikes from\u00a0Yanez. This is a really price in my opinion, I love Marcos here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nVitor Petrino -298 vs Dustin Jacoby +240<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI didn\u2019t realize Jacoby is 1-4 in his last five fights, and his win is over Kennedy\u00a0 Nzechukwu, not something to write home about. Jacoby has a lot of miles on his body,\u00a0 and he\u2019s a kickboxer fighter that just hasn\u2019t been getting it done, and he got knocked out\u00a0 in June by Reyes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I correctly predicted Petrino would lost to Anthony Smith as he has\u00a0 holes in his game, and submission defense was one of them as Anthony Smith showed us when he submitted him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jacoby doesn\u2019t submit anyone so this fight will take place\u00a0on the feet mostly, and while Petrino has power, he needs more volume as he moves\u00a0up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Petrino can clinch and even get a takedown in this fight if he sees the opportunity,\u00a0 and I\u2019m just out on Dustin Jacoby at this point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s an expensive price, but the loss for\u00a0Petrino against Smith was probably a good thing as he needed a bit of a reality check,\u00a0and I expect him to come back strong and get the win here<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nManel Kape -340 vs Bruno Silva +270\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKape is an interesting fighter as he might have blown his chance at a title shot for a\u00a0 while with his loss to Mokaev, and he\u2019s the source of a lot of drama so he\u2019s going to need to have impressive and exciting fights to get on the good graces of the UFC, and\u00a0this could be a really fun fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Both guys are going to strike so whoever gets going\u00a0 early will slow the other one down with damage, and I think Kape is just going to\u00a0 outclass Silva. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Silva is coming off a KO win against Cody Durden, but Silva got hit a lot\u00a0 in the first round, and Durden isn\u2019t exactly known for his striking. Silva also got taken down and worked on the ground before he landed a great uppercut which got Durden\u00a0out of there, but Kape is so much better than Durden, and I just see Silva not landing\u00a0nearly as many strikes as Kape. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kape could use a highlight finish as his last two wins\u00a0were by decision, and I think he can get it if he\u2019s aggressive. Silva\u2019s level of competition hasn\u2019t been great, this will be too much for him. Kape by Dec\/KO<\/strong> in this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBilly Quarantillo -162 vs Cub Swanson +136\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis could be a Fade The Old Guy theory as Cub Swanson is 41 years old, Swanson\u00a0 won two fights ago, but even he said it was a terrible decision, and he lost a split\u00a0decision to Andre Fili last fight so while I think he still has some gas left in the tank, it\u2019s\u00a0 tough to see his upside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He doesn\u2019t have KO power thise days, and he\u2019s not a\u00a0 submission guy who he\u2019ll have to outwork Billy Q for three rounds. Billy Q lost to Zalal in March, but he tried to fight with an injury, and it didn\u2019t go well for him as he got no offense going, and Zalal submitted him easily in the 2nd. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
When Billy is at his best, he\u2019s\u00a0 landing jabs and kicks to wear down opponents, and while I think he should be able to\u00a0do that here, I think this fight is going to be really close going into the 3rd, and Cub\u00a0Swanson wasn\u2019t exhausted in the third round in his last fight, and I don\u2019t know how\u00a0 healthy or in shape Billy Q is going to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I can\u2019t believe I\u2019m saying this, but the bet is\u00a0 Swanson here<\/strong>. If Billy Q isn\u2019t 100% again, Swanson can steal an early round and in\u00a0round three, it\u2019s anyones fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMaybe a live bet is good on this fight to see if someone\u00a0 is fading faster than the other, but pre-fight it\u2019s Swanson at plus money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC Fight Night Main Event: Joaquin Buckley -275 vs Colby Covington +225<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m of the opinion that Colby Covington is done as a top guy, and he may be done as a\u00a0 UFC fighter soon. He fights once a year, and the wear and tear from the fights and the\u00a0weight cuts look like they\u2019ve caught up to him. His wins since 2019 are a rib injury to\u00a0Tyron Woodley, who was done as a fighter and Jorge Masvidal, who was done as a\u00a0fighter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Colby was awful last December against Leon Edwards, as he looked slow and\u00a0 out of shape, and got no offense going at all. If he\u2019s that slow and lathargic, Buckley is\u00a0 going to have a field day against him as his speed and power will surely get to Colby\u00a0where he can land big shots. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a five round fight, and Colby knows how to\u00a0 manage his cardio for these fights so I do worry that Buckley can gas himself if he uses\u00a0too much energy, but I just don\u2019t see any upside for Colby now. Buckley is the easy pick for me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
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