Oban Elliott -225 vs Bassil Hafez +185\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHafez beat Mickey Gall last fight, but it was as uninspiring as it could get as Hafez got\u00a0 piece up by Gall on the feet, and that\u2019s a terrible look. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He can wrestle some, but it\u00a0 doesn\u2019t look like he\u2019s amazing at it, and he\u2019s not a guy I want to bet on. I didn\u2019t think\u00a0Oban Elliott was very good coming off of Contender Series, but give him credit as he\u2019s\u00a0 won two straight, and he\u2019s improved immensely in all areas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His toughness is never in\u00a0doubt, and he showed decent striking and takedown defense against Parsons in his last fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think he\u2019s just going to have a bit too much for Hafez, but I do think this fight\u00a0 goes the distance<\/strong>. Neither guy has been fighting for finishes in their last couple fights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMickey Gall -122 vs Ramiz Brahimaj +102<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBoth these guys are not good, and the loser is getting cut. I\u2019ll lean Gall <\/strong>in this one as he\u00a0 actually improved his striking against Hafez, but his striking is so bad that he still got\u00a0beat up on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBrahimaj was lifeless when he lost to Gorimbo as he got pushed up\u00a0 against the cage the majority of the fight, and he just showed no signs of life. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That was\u00a0his first fight in two years, and I just wonder if he cares that much. Gall at least showed\u00a0effort, and a good fighting spirit in his last fight so I\u2019ll lean him to win with his grappling\u00a0and submission attempts, but it\u2019s best to not bet on this fight<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJhonata Diniz -125 vs Marcin Tybura +105\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDiniz is ready to be beat as his two wins in the UFC are so suspect. He KO\u2019d Austen\u00a0Lane, but everyone KO\u2019s Austen Lane. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Then he beat Karl Willians, who is a decorated\u00a0wrestler, but was told not to wrestle because it\u2019s boring so he tried to strike with Diniz,\u00a0and Diniz should have destroyed him, but the fight was close, and late in the third,\u00a0 Williams wrestled and took him down easily. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tybura isn\u2019t great, but he\u2019s a veteran who\u00a0 can strike with Diniz, and his weakness is being taken down, and Diniz isn\u2019t doing that.\u00a0Tybura is the pick<\/strong> as I\u2019m fading Diniz his next couple fights. His striking isn\u2019t impressive,\u00a0his cardio is ok, and he\u2019s ripe to be beat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Damon Jackson -135 vs Jim Miller +114\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBoth of these guys are past their prime so we have to decide who has more left. Jim\u00a0Miller is coming off a brutal beating against Bobby Green, but Jackson isn\u2019t going to\u00a0 strike like Green. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s going to clinch and wrestle, and while Miller can do that as well, I\u00a0think Jackson has more energy and can just do it for longer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I expect Miller to try and\u00a0strike early on, but his cardio will fall off faster than Jackson who lost to Chepe Meriscal\u00a0 in his last fight, but Jackson was still winning some moments on the ground in the third.\u00a0 This could turn into a very boring fight when these guys get tired, but Jackson is the\u00a0pick<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nEryk Anders -142 vs Chris Weidman +120\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIf Weidman is allowed to eye poke the shit out of Anders like he was allowed to do\u00a0 against Silva in his last fight, he has a chance to win this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, Silva has\u00a0proven to be a bum UFC fighter,and while Anders isn\u2019t great, he\u2019s going to be able to\u00a0 wrestle with Weidman, and I just don\u2019t believe Weidman still has enough left to win two\u00a0straight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His body is beat up, he doesn\u2019t have a lot of power left, and Anders lack of\u00a0 striking defense isn\u2019t going to be as much of a liability here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Anders should have the\u00a0slightly better strikes, and the better ground game. If you bet on Anders, have thick skin\u00a0because he\u2019ll have moments in the fight where he\u2019ll look terrible, but he\u2019ll have enough\u00a0good moments to get the win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMarcus McGhee -135 vs Jonathan Martinez +114\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMartinez all day in this one<\/strong>. McGhee has beaten three terrible UFC fighters in his\u00a0 career, and while they\u2019re all by KO, I don\u2019t find his weapons too difficult to figure out and\u00a0defend. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHis striking has power, and he\u2019s shown he can wrestle, but Martinez is a\u00a0massive step up in competition. Martinez is going to unleash his kicks to McGhee on\u00a0 the legs, and body, and McGhee doesn\u2019t have a long reach so Martinez is going to be\u00a0able to strike at range and once he gets the kicks going, it\u2019s going to slow down\u00a0 McGhees takedowns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Martinez is 6-1 in his last seven UFC fights, and his loss is to\u00a0Jose Aldo, the grandmaster at defending leg kicks, and that fight was in Aldo\u2019s home town so it was a brutal spot for Martinez. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
McGhee\u2019s very overvalued here, and Martinez is coming off a rare loss. Martinez at plus money is a no-brainer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mauricio Ruffy -750 vs James Llontop +525\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNot a lot of analysis needed here. Ruffy is a killer, and should smoke Llontop who I\u00a0 have been very happy to fade in the UFC as I\u2019m not high on him at all. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He almost beat Borshchev as he lost by a split decision, but he poked Borshchev bad in the first round,\u00a0 and he still couldn\u2019t take advantage of a damaged fighter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His only path to victory here is an early flash knockout or somehow wrestle Ruffy for three rounds to stay away from his power, but Ruffy has great length, and he knows how to use his long jab and kicks to\u00a0 dictate pace. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ruffy is from my favorite gym right now, The Fighting Nerds, and they have the best game planning in the business right now. Llontop has been a fade since\u00a0 Contender Series, and now he faces a brutal knockout fighter. Ruffy is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Karine Silva -278 v Viviane Araujo +225\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nOne fighter is on her way up, one is on her way down, and I want the fighter who\u2019s on\u00a0 her way up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Silova is undefeated in the UFC, and while her opponents haven\u2019t been\u00a0great, she\u2019s been dominant, and she\u2019s coming off a nice performance against Lipski\u00a0where she showed off her striking, and ground game. Bottom line is Araujo is 37, and has 2 wins in her last 6, and they aren\u2019t to great opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Every opponent that ca\u00a0 push the pace, and force her to get a little tired has won. She just doesn\u2019t have that power anymore, and she has no submission wins in the UFC so Silva will have the\u00a0massive advantage there. Silva is a great parlay piece<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBo Nickal -1000 vs Paul Craig +650<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThere\u2019s no way to bet this fight at this price as Paul Craig is a sacrificial lamb in this\u00a0 matchup. Nickal is younger, more athletic, and his speed is going to be light years better. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The interesting thing is that the last Bo Nickal fight went over 1.5 rounds, and I\u00a0predicted that would happen wondering if Nickal and his team want cage time with UFC veterans because his previous fights have been so quick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It could happen again here if Nickal wants to wrestle for a bit against Craig, but I won\u2019t bet it. Nickal by early finish<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCharles Oliviera -270 vs MIchael Chandler +220\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCharles Oliviera by finish for me in this one, but we\u2019ll just take the money line in parlays.\u00a0 Chandler fights like a tornado with incredible pace and bursts of energy and strikes, but\u00a0 at 38 he\u2019s absorbed a ton of damage, and he\u2019s not the same guy he was years ago.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Chandler\u2019s 1-3 in his last 4 with his win being against Ferguson who has 8 straight\u00a0 losses. Chandler will make a mistake, and Oliviera will take advantage, get him on the ground and win by submission or ground and pound. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Oliviera still has a few great fights\u00a0left in him, and I\u2019m not sure Chandler does. Oliviera won\u2019t have to move towards Chandler, he\u2019ll just have to counter when Chandler flies in, and I think he\u2019ll make short\u00a0 work of Chandler<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
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