{"id":32400,"date":"2024-11-13T11:31:48","date_gmt":"2024-11-13T16:31:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=32400"},"modified":"2024-11-13T11:31:51","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T16:31:51","slug":"nfl-week-11-betting-preview-advice-and-tips","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/nfl\/nfl-week-11-betting-preview-advice-and-tips\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 11 Betting Preview, Advice and Tips"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Part of my handicapping process is to look at each NFL game from a statistical and matchup perspective.&nbsp; This, combined with Power Ratings and situational factors help guide me to an eventual decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This week, I will use bullet points to highlight some of the areas that stand out to me as I handicap three key NFL games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Washington at Philadelphia (Thursday Night):<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Washington shows a 65% pass defense, but that number has been steadily improving from where it once was (70+%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Washington\u2019s 27 defensive sacks are much more than what was projected prior to the start of 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Washington\u2019s kicking game, and overall special team play has been another pleasant surprise.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Washington has yet to have their full bye week or mini-bye week.\u00a0 For a new staff, what they\u2019re doing without the benefit of an early reset is quite impressive.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In Philadelphia\u2019s five-game win streak, the sack ratio has flipped from 6-13 to 19-14 (25-27 overall).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Eagles have allowed an average of 13 points per game during the win streak.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Philly\u2019s 3<sup>rd<\/sup> best WR has eight receptions.\u00a0 It is important to have A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in the lineup.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The visiting team in this series has an over 60% cover rate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Baltimore at Pittsburgh<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Baltimore has the NFL\u2019s best looking stat sheet.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Behind Derrick Henry (1,120-6.1 per carry, 12 rushing TD\u2019s), they average 182.6 rush yards per game!<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Conversely, the Baltimore run defense is allowing just 3.4 yards-per-carry and 73 rush yards per game.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lamar Jackson is on pace to shatter his passing yards career high, maybe by more than 700 yards.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pittsburgh\u2019s Patrick Queen is 2<sup>nd<\/sup> on the team with 62 combined tackles\/assists.\u00a0 He played for Baltimore last season.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Russell Wilson\u2019s yards-per-completion number far exceeds that from Justin Fields.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pittsburgh is running below league average at just 4.0 yards-per-carry.\u00a0 The rebuilt OL needs time to mature.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Chris Boswell is 23-24 for the year converting field goal attempts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How long can Pittsburgh survive with no real pass-catching threat behind contested catch specialist George Pickens?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This will be Pittsburgh\u2019s 1<sup>st<\/sup> Divisional game.\u00a0 The remaining schedule is brutal, and includes games at Philly and home to Kansas City.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pittsburgh has covered at least the last eight in this series as a home dog.\u00a0 They are 0-5 ATS the last five when favored.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It\u2019s rare to see a win over three points for either team in this series.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kansas City at Buffalo<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If you took the team name off the jersey, KC has the stat sheet of a team that is 6-3, maybe at most.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This is BY FAR their best year defending the run.\u00a0 Their pass D% is a tad high (for them) but not completely out of range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>RB Kareem Hunt is a workhorse but is only averaging 3.6 per carry.\u00a0 The team will be better when Isiah Pacheco returns.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Once the run game contributes, I look for the offense to thrive, as the new WR additions are clear upgrades.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Buffalo\u2019s turnover ratio of +13 is the best in the NFL.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Buffalo is less \u201cpass-heavy\u201d this season, while at the same time, Josh Allen has fewer carries.\u00a0 That\u2019s a winning combo.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While Buffalo\u2019s sack ratio is solid at 25-13, both the run D (4.9 per carry) and the pass D (69%) are below NFL averages.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Buffalo and KC have met in each of the last three regular seasons.\u00a0 While Buffalo has been snakebitten playing KC in the playoffs over this time span, it may surprise some people that Buffalo won all three regular season meetings, ALL IN KC.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>For what it\u2019s worth, the series has typically been lower scoring than most people would believe (regular season).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Football GoldSheet Newsletter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking for a second opinion on a game? GoldSheet is the country&#8217;s longest-running sports betting newsletter, offering stats, analysis, historical trends and power ratings for every NFL and college football game each week. Check out why bettors and oddsmakers have been using GoldSheet since 1954!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-16018d1d wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-luminous-vivid-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.com\/goldsheet\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>CHECK IT OUT<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"anchor\" id=\"newsletterfrm\"><\/a>\n<div class=\"hottest_play_area\">\n  <div id=\"newsletter_widget\" class=\"hottest_play_third_area newsletter_widget\">\n    <div class=\"hottest_play_third_area_content\">\n      <div class=\"sign-up-offer-text\">\n        <p>SPECIAL OFFER FOR FIRST TIME SUBSCRIBERS<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"newsletter-thank new\" style=\"display: none;\">\n        <a class=\"anchor-newsletter\"><\/a>\n        Thanks for signing up! 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Track the point spreads, moneylines, totals and betting percentages through every week of the NFL season. Oh yeah, you can also find <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/nfl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">free NFL picks<\/a> and predictions!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"366\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/goldsheetfootball-1024x366.jpg\" alt=\"The Football GoldSheet Banner\" class=\"wp-image-21517\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/goldsheetfootball-1024x366.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/goldsheetfootball-300x107.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/goldsheetfootball-768x275.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/goldsheetfootball.jpg 1090w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/wt.buzz\/odds\" data-schema-attribute=\"\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vegas lines<\/a> updated in real time, including who the public is betting on<\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Last Minute Handicapping Advice<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">: Check out our extensive library of <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/sports-betting-guide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">handicapping tips<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sports betting tips video library<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">)<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Want an expert opinion?<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> Check out the latest <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Free Sports Picks<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Best Bets<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> from our team of expert sports handicappers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Part of my handicapping process is to look at each NFL game from a statistical and matchup perspective.&nbsp; This, combined with Power Ratings and situational factors help guide me to an eventual decision. This week, I will use bullet points to highlight some of the areas that stand out to me as I handicap three [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":31767,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[15,3073,1842,3070,251,11925,11926,1880],"class_list":["post-32400","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-betting-advice","tag-nfl-betting-preview","tag-nfl-betting-tips","tag-nfl-week-11","tag-nfl-week-11-betting-advice","tag-nfl-week-11-betting-tips","tag-nfl-week-11-preview"],"basic_html":"\n<p>Part of my handicapping process is to look at each NFL game from a statistical and matchup perspective.&nbsp; This, combined with Power Ratings and situational factors help guide me to an eventual decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This week, I will use bullet points to highlight some of the areas that stand out to me as I handicap three key NFL games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Washington at Philadelphia (Thursday Night):<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Baltimore at Pittsburgh<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kansas City at Buffalo<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Football GoldSheet Newsletter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Looking for a second opinion on a game? GoldSheet is the country's longest-running sports betting newsletter, offering stats, analysis, historical trends and power ratings for every NFL and college football game each week. Check out why bettors and oddsmakers have been using GoldSheet since 1954!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with Las Vegas Cris, Ted Sobel and Jeff Dawson.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WagerTalk Live Odds Screen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds?sport=L2&amp;type=4&amp;cb=0.5277062202711718\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the point spreads, moneylines, totals and betting percentages through every week of the NFL season. Oh yeah, you can also find <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/nfl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">free NFL picks<\/a> and predictions!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/goldsheetfootball-1024x366.jpg\" alt=\"The Football GoldSheet Banner\" class=\"wp-image-21517\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32400","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/46"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32400"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32400\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32401,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32400\/revisions\/32401"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32400"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32400"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32400"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}