Tresean Gore -185 vs Antonio Trocoli +154<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGore has had a couple of fights cancelled, but he still hasn\u2019t fought in 2 years, and he\u2019s still the rightful favorite here. Trocoli won on Contender Series in 2019, but then never fought in the UFC until June of this year where I\u2019m pretty sure the UFC made him fightbecause he was under contract. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He looked awful, not in fight shape, low volume with the strikes, and eventually got exhausted and finished in the 3rd to Bullet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gore isn\u2019t great, but he\u2019s going to be able to wrestle Trocoli, and win the battle on the ground if he gets it there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gore was able to finish Josh Fremd in his last fight, and I think he\u2019s going to be able to do the same thing here as Trocoli hasn\u2019t shown any desire to be a professional fighter<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCortavious Romious -175 vs Gaston Bolanos +145<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFight goes the distance<\/strong>, I don\u2019t care who wins. Neither of these guys are great fighters. Bolanos is in his early 30\u2019s and got beat up pretty bad in his last fight against McGhee who\u2019s a decent fighter, but certainly not great. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHis strikes are wild and inaccurate, and he can\u2019t clinch or wrestle so his offensive weapons are very limited. Romious is coming off a Contender Series win, but he won by decision, and he\u2019s very raw, but athletic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dana White raved about him, but I didn\u2019t see the upside. These guys aren\u2019t great on offense, and with all the overs we\u2019re seeing in the UFC, this one feels like another one to go the distance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Melissa Mullins -238 vs Klaudia Sygula +195<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI honestly had no clue who Sygula is before this, but Mullins\u2019s opponent backed out so they needed a replacement fighter and here she is. She\u2019s from Poland and fought in promotions I\u2019ve never heard of and she\u2019s been beating some pretty bad fighters, but she\u2019s shown decent striking, kicks, and knees in the clinch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If she keeps the distance, she\u2019s going to land strikes for sure against Mullins who doesn\u2019t have good striking defense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, Mullins can clinch and wrestle, and Sygula has not fought anyone who can clinch like Mullins can. Mullins was dominating in the clinch in her last fight against Cornolle, but she got tired in the second, and took a brutal knee to the body that knocked her out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mullis didn\u2019t have cardio issues in her first fight against Alekseeva, but it was certainly a problem against Cornolle. This would be a live bet situation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Mullins looks slow with bad cardio, Sygula could piece her up on the feet and get the win. No bets pre-fight<\/strong> though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGet $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC Fight Night & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Da\u2019Mon Blackshear -285 vs Cody Stamann +230<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFight goes the distance, I don\u2019t care who wins<\/strong>. Cody Stamann has the perfect fighting style for overs. He\u2019s arms aren\u2019t very long so he has to lunge in for punches, and they don\u2019t have much power behind them so he\u2019s not knocking guys out, and he can wrestle and clinch to eat up clock, but he doesn\u2019t have good submissions so he\u2019s not submitting anyone. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHe\u2019s a tough guy, never been knocked out, and although he\u2019s been submitted twice, they were to Said Nurmagomedov, and Aljo back in 2018. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Blackshear is a tough one to read as he got knocked out in 18 seconds in his last fight that he took on short notice, and he was dominated by Bautista before that so I think his upside is limited. I see a fight with not a lot of big moments, and one that sees the scorecards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Charles Radtke -170 vs Matthew Semelsberger +142<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSemelsberger has some momentum when he entered the UFC as he started 4-1, but he\u2019s 1-4 since then and he\u2019s getting worse, especially his cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking doesn\u2019t seem to have the same pop on it, and he\u2019s losing exchanges on the ground, and in the third round he\u2019s the more tired fighter. Radtke got knocked out in his last fight by Prates, but Prates is knocking everyone out these days. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I kind of like Radtke\u2019s skills as he can strike hard, and he can clinch and wrestle. I think he just wears down Semelsberger, and gets the win, but -170 is a pretty steep price on Radtke. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
We really haven\u2019t seen a ton of him in the UFC, and Semelsberger will be fighting for his job in this fight as he\u2019ll be cut if he loses. Lean Radtke to win by decision<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMansur Abdul-Malik -360 vs Dusko Todorovic +285<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis price is pure insanity. My notes from Malik\u2019s Contender Series win are that his cardio was bad, but his opponent was awful and had worse cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He has good power, but defense is not good, and he\u2019s a fade. There are a ton of red flags for Todorovic, with the biggest one being that he had a bad knee injury in his last fight. It was a year and a half ago so he should be good to go, but he has a limited ceiling in the UFC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s beaten bottom feeders, and lost to all the step-ups in competition. If the odds were even on this fight, I would say pass, but at +285, Todorovic is worth a sprinkle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
These Contender Series guys that we have questions about don\u2019t seem to have good debut\u2019s, and don\u2019t be surprised if Malik has a decent first round, and then falls apart in the second and third<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNicolas Dalby -125 vs Elizeu Zaleski +105<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFight goes the distance, I don\u2019t care who wins. Seven out of the last eight fights for Zaleski have gone the distance, and six in a row for Zaleski have gone the distance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
These guys have similar styles in that their striking is decent, but not really crisp, and these guys like wearing down opponents with grueling pressure, clinching, ground game, and just making life miserable for their opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I see this fight being two tough guys slugging it out, but I don\u2019t see how either of these guys submits or KO\u2019s the other one. Take the over<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGillian Robertson -285 vs Luana Pinheiro +230<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI see two fighters heading in opposite directions. Robertson had lost three out of four before going on a 4-1 run in her last five fights, and you can just see her getting better. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Her striking has improved, she\u2019s always had a good submission game, but her wrestling game has really improved, and she\u2019s become much more of a complete package in the last couple years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
On the other hand, Pinheiro has lost two straight, but it\u2019s how she lost that\u2019s a big concern. She was beating Amanda Ribas before she gassed in the third and got knocked out, and then in her last fight against Angela Hill, she just gave up and ended up getting choked out for Hill\u2019s first ever submission. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Robertson is on the way up, Pinheiro needs to make some massive changes to be competitive in this one, and I don\u2019t see it. Robertson is a great parlay piece<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nReinier de Ridder -298 vs Gerald Meerschaert +240<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI just can\u2019t fade Meerschaert at this price. His last two fights were against strikers who aren\u2019t good on the ground, and he submitted both of them in the second round, so why can\u2019t he do it to Ridder? <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ridder has a lot of submission on his resume, but I don\u2019t think he has anything that Meerschaert hasn\u2019t seen and won\u2019t be prepared for. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ridder\u2019s striking on the feet is ok, but I don\u2019t think he\u2019s knocking out Meerschaert, so we\u2019re back to a grappling and submission fight, and I\u2019m not laying -298 on someone making their UFC debut. This will be a complete pass for me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nDenise Gomes -425 vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz +330<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is recency bias on their last fights, and the price is crazy. Kowalkiewicz got beat up by Lucindo, but Lucindo looks to be a future title holder with her incredible striking and power, but Gomes isn\u2019t on Lucindo\u2019s level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gomes won a very close fight in June where she was able to beat a much bigger Eduarda Moura who is all about the wrestling, takedowns and control, and Karolina is all about standing and striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Two fights ago, Gomes lost to Angela Hill who likes to stand and strike as well, and I would Hill is a bit similar to Karolina as she likes to point fight as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I also don\u2019t think Gomes has the best cardio in the world, and Karolina might be faster on the feet. This is a solid underdog play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMiles Johns -148 vs Cody Garbrandt +124<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGarbrandt\u2019s three wins in his last nine fights are against Assuncao, Trevin Jones, and Brian Kelleheer, and Miles Johns is better than all three of them, and I think he presents some real problems for Cody. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Johns got busted for illegal substances a year ago, but he\u2019s won two fights since then, both by decision, and both where his cardio looked really good. Cody Gibson looked great at the last UFC event, and Johns dominated him with wrestling, and fight IQ. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Then he outworked Silva de Andrade, showed off good striking, and there\u2019s a lot to like about him. Cody\u2019s chin is always a question, and in his last fight, Figueiredo got him on the ground and submitted him fairly easily. Cody has to do a lot in this one to get the win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He can\u2019t get chin checked, he can\u2019t get taken down and end up on bottom, and he has to push a pace that tires out Johns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Add to that, he has to get his striking on point so keep Johns away from him, and it\u2019s just a lot to ask for him as he\u2019s in the later stages of his career. This is a solid price on Johns<\/strong>, he\u2019s the pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC Fight Night Main Event: Neil Magney vs Carlos Prates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Not much analysis is needed. Prates\u2019s power is insane, and he\u2019s been flatlining everyone since Contender Series. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His reach is a nightmare, and he has the death touch that can put guys to sleep with one punch. Magny has long been a gatekeeper type for the division, but in his last fight, a young stud killed him in the first round so we have to wonder how much gas he has left in the tank. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The way Magny can have success is to clinch and hold Prates against the fence for as long as possible, and hope to tire him out, but I wonder if the end is near for Magny. He\u2019s 37 years old and has 41 professional fights, and Prates is on a roll<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32285","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32285"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32285\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32286,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32285\/revisions\/32286"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32285"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32285"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32285"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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