Jack Shore +210 vs Youssef Zalal -258<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI was skeptical of Zalal coming back to UFC, but he\u2019s been fantastic in his 2 fights. However, his first opponent (Billy Q) was hurt going into the fight, and his second opponent (Jarno Errens) is terrible on the ground, and that\u2019s where Zalal thrives. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jack Shore is 17-2, but his 2 losses have come in his last 3 fights, and it feels like when he steps up in competition he\u2019s a bit overmatched. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His last fight got stopped because his shin was cut from all the leg kicks he took from Brito, and he really couldn\u2019t get any offense going. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ll ride with Zalal to keep the momentum going<\/strong> in his second UFC stint and get the win here by using his size, clinch and ground game. It\u2019s juicy, but a solid parlay piece.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJamey Lyn Horth -205 vs Ivana Petrovic +170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI can\u2019t say I\u2019m comfortable laying -205 on Jamey Lyn Horth, but I can\u2019t ever see a situation in the UFC where I put money on Petrovic. She beat Na Liang in her last fight, but Liang has awful cardio, and got submitted in the third round, but early on she was wrestling Petrovic around, and landing strikes on the feet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Before that, Luana Carolina beat her by decision in a pretty boring fight, and on the other side we have Horth who is 1-1 in the UFC, and she\u2019s low volume on the feet, and she likes to clinch and wrestle as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She\u2019s going to be bigger and longer than Petrovic, and I think she should win, but for betting purposes we\u2019re taking this fight to go the distance as a parlay piece<\/strong>. They are pretty even, and I don\u2019t see how either of them finishes the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCody Gibson -190 vs Chad Anheliger +162<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBoth these guys are coming off wins that probably saved their UFC careers, but I have a feeling that the loser leaves town. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Gibson has lost to Miles Johns and Brad Katona, 2 guys that can push the pace, and Gibson couldn\u2019t keep up. He beat Brian Kelleher in his last fight, but everyone does. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Anheliger had lost 2 in a row before beating Grigoriou in his last fight, and I thought Anheliger would put on a solid performance with his wrestling and pace, and he did just that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s undersized, but he\u2019s got a good motor, and while I think he loses a close one, he won\u2019t give up. This is a theme on this card, but I\u2019ll take the overs on this fight as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
These guys don\u2019t have KO power, and they\u2019re pretty even in the wrestling so I see a fight that goes to the judges<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nGet $15 FREE towards all expert picks - including UFC Fight Night & More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Serhiy Sidey -166 vs Garrett Armfield +140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nArmfield blew it in his last fight against Heistand when he had Heistand dead to rights, and he showed terrible fight IQ by engaging on the ground and not letting Heistand up when he was almost knocked out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Instead of fading him, I\u2019ll come back and pick him to win as an underdog as he had one dumb moment that cost him, but he had won 2 straight fights, and he has the striking and skillset to win this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sidey has had an odd road to the UFC as he knocked out Taveras on Contender Series, but Dana White didn\u2019t like that so he demanded a rematch, and Sidey got beat in a split decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sidey isn\u2019t that great, he has power, but I don\u2019t see a lot of weapons in his arsenal, and I certainly don\u2019t trust him in a UFC debut as a favorite. Armfield is a solid underdog<\/strong> play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rodrigo Nascimento -125 vs Alexandr Romanov +105<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRomanov has had a rough last few years as he\u2019s had a lot of troubles outside of fighting, and he\u2019s 1-3 in his last 4 fights with his win against an old and damaged Blagoy Ivanov. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Romanov\u2019s head hasn\u2019t been in a good spot, and his cardio has always been awful, and if he doesn\u2019t take his opponent down early, and finish him on the ground, he loses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Nascimento just got knocked out by Lewis in the third round, but early on he had success taking Lewis down in the first 2 rounds before Lewis landed the big shot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Romanov doesn\u2019t have the cardio to win in the later rounds, and I think Nascimento can avoid getting finished in the first round, and after that he should use his striking to get the win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s a couple of lower level big guys so anything can happen, but fading Romanov is a solid play<\/strong> here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCharles Jourdain -115 vs Victor Henry -105<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCharles Jourdain has been awful recently as he\u2019s 2-4 in his last 6 fights, but it\u2019s worse than that. His wins are over Kron Gracie, who is a terrible MMA fighter, and his other win was against Ramos when Jourdain got sparked, knocked down, and Ramos jumped on top of him right into a guillotine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It was a nice submission, but he was close to getting finished. He just gets hit too much, and he gets knocked down or knocked out, and it looks bad to the judges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking doesn\u2019t have KO power these days, while he has a decent ground game at times, he can\u2019t hold opponents down for very long. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Victor Henry is a point fighter and although he\u2019s coming off a KO win, it was against a tomato can. He\u2019s going to dance around on the outside, use his jabs and kicks to maintain distance and stay out of harms way. I don\u2019t trust either of these guys so this will be a complete stay away<\/strong> from a betting perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJasmine Jasudavicius -205 vs Ariane Lipski +170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI give the slight edge to Jasmine in this fight, but not at -205. Lipski is coming off a close loss to Karine Silva where she just lost a couple of close wrestling moments that cost her the fight, but she has good striking, she\u2019s active in the clinch and on the ground, and she\u2019s pulled some upsets in her career, with the win against Melissa Gatto being the most notable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jasmine is going to want to use her strength and takedowns to get this on the ground, and if she gets top position, it\u2019s going to be tough for Lipski to get out of there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lipski is going to have to stop the takedowns and keep this a striking match, but if she gets dominated on the ground, a submission is a possibility. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think most would say take this fight to go the distance, but Jasmine subbed Cachoeira 2 fights ago, and Lipski has 6 fights out of her last 9 that haven\u2019t gone the distance. I think Jasmine wins this fight<\/strong>, but this is a steep price so I\u2019ll pass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPiemann Zahabi -115 v Pedro Munhoz -105<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Fight goes the distance, I don\u2019t care who wins<\/strong>. It\u2019s a Pedro Munhoz fight so we know what he\u2019s going to do. Strike from the outside with little power, move around the outside, and eat punches, but be nimble and tough enough to not get finished. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThe only fight of his to not go the distance in the last 9 was because of an eye poke against O\u2019Malley, and we might get a good price because Zahabi has fought 13 times and 9 of them have been finishes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
However, his fights against Basharat and Turcios might look a lot like this fight with good volume and activity, but both fighters pretty equal and tough to finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His cardio is solid so I don\u2019t worry about him gassing out, but when you look at his finishes, they\u2019re all in the first round so once it gets out of the first he doesn\u2019t seem to have finishing ability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
No opinion on the winner, just look for Munhoz to control the pace, keep it mostly on the feet, and get another fight to go the distance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mike Malott -250 vs Trevin Giles +205<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis might be my favorite play on the card even though it\u2019s -250. Mike Malott learned a lot from his last fight against Magny where he dominated the fight, but he didn\u2019t manage his cardio, he gassed very late and Magny got the ground and pound win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Malott had been running through guys in the UFC, but Magny is a cagy veteran with solid cardio and Malott won\u2019t make that mistake again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His power and physicality will be too much for Giles who just doesn\u2019t offer much upside. His most recent wins are a split decision against Preston Parsons (who isn\u2019t very good), and a decision against Louis Cosce who is getting submitted in Urijah Faber\u2019s leage these days. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s low volume with his striking, and Malott is going to be able to close the distance and pummel him inside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t know if Malott gets the finish because he\u2019ll be careful with his cardio, but he\u2019s going to be able to land the better strikes, have better volume, really damage the leg of Giles with his kicks, and control where this fight takes place. Malott ML is a solid parlay piece<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMarc-Andre Barriault -192 vs Dustin Stoltzfus +160<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI would imagine that Soltzfus is going to want to take Barriault down and keep this on the ground, but he hasn\u2019t been that successful at doing that, and Barriault is going to be a really tough guy to wrestle down to the mat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Stoltzfus couldn\u2019t keep Ferreira on the ground in the first and Ferreira is not a good wrestler by any measure, and after they got up off the mat, Dustin was tired and Ferreira hit him with an elbow that knocked him out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Stoltzus has 2 wins in the UFC, and they\u2019re against trash can fighters, and he\u2019s lost the other 5 UFC fights with 4 being by finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Barriault is just going to wear down Stoltzfus over 3 rounds with his striking, clinch and cardio. He went 5 rounds with Chris Curtis in a close split decision, and he\u2019s coming off a loss to Pyfer with Pyfer hit him with a great glancing blow to the side of Barriault\u2019s head that knocked him out, and the level of competition isn\u2019t close as Barriault has fought much better fighters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He just needs to not get finished in the first half of the first round and Stoltzfus will slow down, and probably get finished. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Another factor is how brutal the last fight was for Stoltzfus. He had nerve damage, and multiple injuries to his face from the spinning elbow KO, and that fight was in June so I\u2019m surprised he\u2019s fighting so quick, and it comes across as taking a fight to get one last payday in before the year is over. Barriault for sure in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCaio Machado -162 vs Brendson Ribeiro +136\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLoser DEFINITELY gets cut here. Maybe both of them do. These 2 are terrible.\u00a0They\u2019re both 0-2 in the UFC, they have bad cardio, and even their wins on Contender\u00a0 Series were strange and probably didn\u2019t warrant UFC contracts, but Dana always\u00a0says\u2026I need heavyweights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Except, Machado is dropping down to light heavyweight\u00a0 for this fight so now we add in a huge weigh cut in this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
There\u2019s nothing appealing\u00a0about this fight or betting on this fight. Wait til you see this fight start, and just bet\u00a0against the first guy that starts to get really tired<\/strong>. Other than that, we move on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJhonata Diniz -180 vs Derrick Lewis +150<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019m not impressed with Diniz, and he\u2019s ripe to be beat, and Lewis at +150 is very enticing. Diniz is purely a striker, and has been given 2 gifts for opponents to start his UFC career. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He got Austen Lane who gets knocked out all the time, and then in his second fight he got Karl Williams, who is a all-world wrestler, but for some reason decided to try and strike the entire fight, basically giving Diniz a free win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lewis has won 2 out of 3, and both have been by flash knockouts, which is basically his only path to victory at this point in his career, but he\u2019ll get plenty of chances to tee off on Diniz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Diniz will try and keep this at range, but Lewis isn\u2019t like anyone he\u2019s fought before. Lewis has decent cardio where he\u2019s live for a KO late in the fight<\/strong>, I\u2019ll take him to get the win as the dog here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nErin Blanchfield -135 vs Rose Namajunas +114<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nFight goes the distance, I don\u2019t care who wins. I\u2019m very interested to see who wins this fight, but from a bettting perspective, this fight is a tough one to call. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Both have lost to Fiorot recently, and I just don\u2019t see who could get the finish. Rose has one finish in her last six fights, and while Blanchfield has submission wins, she\u2019s not submitting Rose with Rose\u2019s solid ground game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think this fight is going to be very close with the winner just squeaking out a few big moments<\/strong>, and I think Rose can get the bigger moments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAdd to that, Blanchfield\u2019s nose always seems to get damaged in her fights so if judges are looking at a very close round, and Blanchfield\u2019s nose is bleeding, it cost her a valuable round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UFC Fight Night Main Event: Brandon Moreno -175 vs Amir Albazi +140<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
On paper, Moreno is the better wrestler, has the longer reach, and has fought by far the better level of competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Albazi struggled to beat Kai Kara France a year ago, and before that was fighting unranked guys, and guys no longer with the UFC so this feels like he should be a bigger underdog. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Albazi\u2019s ground game shouldn\u2019t be good enough to beat Moreno, and his striking is decent, but Moreno has been fighting guys like Brandon Royval, Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo so Albazi doesn\u2019t bring anything to the table that Moreno hasn\u2019t seen before. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
My big red flag for Moreno is that he semi retired after his last fight, and that was in February. He\u2019s lost two fights in a row by split decision, and I wonder if he\u2019s super motivated to be in this fight or if he\u2019s struggling to get hyped for this fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
When a fighter hints at retiring or leaving the sport, and then returns, I have to wonder if it\u2019s for the love of the sport or just money, and if it\u2019s just money, sometimes that doesn\u2019t go well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If Moreno brings his best game, he should win. If he\u2019s tentative, and not 100% ready for a battle, I think Albazi can win. I\u2019ll lean Moreno, but I may wait and bet this fight live to see what Moreno looks like<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32256"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32256\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32258,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32256\/revisions\/32258"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32257"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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