Tim Means -205 vs Court McGee +160<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis fight pretty much comes down to who has more left in the tank as both guys are 39+ years old, and on losing streaks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Means is coming off a KO loss against Medic in April, and it\u2019s only his second KO loss in the UFC after all these years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s been submitted in the past, but I\u2019m not sure McGee is submitting anyone at this stage, but the KO against Medic was a bad look as one uppercut floored him and he ate a big follow up shot after that, and you have to wonder if his chin is weak at this point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
McGee has lost three in a row, and after going his entire career without getting KO\u2019d, he got knocked out in back to back fights against Wells and Brown. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is an article about betting UFC, so my advice is to not bet this fight as neither guy has upside<\/strong>, and nothing would surprised me in this fight. Save your money and move on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTecia Pennington -175 vs Carla Esparza +145<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis checks a couple of boxes for me as an automatic fade of Carla Esparza. This is a Fade The Baby Theory and Retirement Theory for her as she had her first kid a year ago, and she\u2019s coming back for one last fight as this will be her final fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s interesting, because we faded Pennington in her last fight as she was coming back after having her first baby, and even though we cashed against Tabatha Ricci, Pennington looked great. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Her cardio was on point, striking was good, and in round three she didn\u2019t show signs of slowing down too much, and she landed over 100 strikes in the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The last time we saw Esparza was two years ago when she lost the title to Zhang, and I know Zhang is an all-time great fighter, but Esparza couldn\u2019t get anything going on offense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She had one moment in the first where she got on top of Zhang for a bit, but Zhang landed heavy shots, and reversed the position and continued to do heavy damage with her striking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Esparza looked defeated after some striking exchanges, and was quickly finished in the second round. I can\u2019t see that Esparza is going to have a lot in the tank in this one, It\u2019s Pennington all day for me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRyan Spann -310 vs Ovince Saint Preux +250<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI don\u2019t know what we did as UFC fans to deserve this fight, but please don\u2019t bet any of your money on it. OSP is 41 years old, and is coming off a shocking win against Kennedy Nzechukwu where Kennedy took him for granted, didn\u2019t put him away and ended up rightfully losing the fight by split decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Make no mistake, OSP looked old and terrible, but he did have enough gas in the tank to go three rounds. I have no idea what happened to Ryan Spann. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He beat Reyes late in 2022, and he told all of us that he was training and taking his fighting career serious, and now he\u2019s lost three in a row including losing a decision to old-man Anthony Smith, and then getting knocked out by Guskov who isn\u2019t that good. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That being said, he\u2019s more athletic, quicker and his strikes are more powerful. He\u2019s going to look really fast on the feet compared to OSP, and he should piece him up as OSP won\u2019t have much power to scare him. Spann should win, but there\u2019s no way you can lay -310 on Ryan Spann<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCesar Almeida -380 vs Ihor Potieria +300<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nWe\u2019ve made a lot of money fading Potieria, and I think we can do it again here. Potieria\u2019s two wins in the UFC are against a retiring Rua, and a debutant from Russia who looked awful. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s been finished in all four of his losses as his gas tank lasts for about a round, and then it vanishes. He has good power on the feet for the first few minutes, and then his KO power is gone, and he\u2019s ripe to get finished. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Almeida is a kickboxer who has impressed since his fight on Contender Series where he pulled the big upset, and he followed that up with a KO win in his debut, and split decision loss to Kopylov where he was dominated in round one, but really showed heart in skill to almost get the win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
All Almeida has to do is not get knocked out in the first round, and he should cruise to decision win or get the KO<\/strong> when Potieria gets tired.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Alexander Hernandez -215 vs Austin Hubbard +170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ll take this fight to go the distance, I don\u2019t care who wins. Both guys have pretty big holes in their game, and I think that helps us as these guys aren\u2019t finishers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hubbard has eight fights in a row without finishing anyone, and Hernandez has gone five fights in a row without a finish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Both guys don\u2019t have a lot of power, and with the new gloves, it\u2019s going to take a lot to get a KO, and these guys aren\u2019t submission specialists so I don\u2019t see where the finish comes from. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hernandez absorbs a lot of damage in his fights, but his last two losses were decisions, and Hubbard has never been knocked out. Take the overs in this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIasmin Lucindo -166 vs Marina Rodriguez +140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThe 22 year old Lucindo is the future, and 37 year old Rodriguez is trying to stay at the top of heer game, but she\u2019s lost three out of four, and her win was against Waterson Gomez who has lost five in a row so she lost to the top fighters, and Lucindo is looking like a top fighter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Lucindo\u2019s striking really good as she did a lot of damage to Kowalkiewicz, who is a pretty good fighter, but was completely outclassed in this matchup. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
My only concern is that Rodriguez is by far the best fighter Lucindo has faced, and she is still in her early 20\u2019s and Rodriguez can take advantage of any mistakes that Lucindo makes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
She lost to Andrade in her last fight, but it was a split decision and she had some good moments on the feet, and she\u2019ll certainly land her fair share of shots, but I don\u2019t know if the damage will be there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In the end, I\u2019m a believer in Lucindo\u2019s talent, and her striking is so impressive right now, I think she\u2019ll damage up Rodriguez quite a bit on the feet, and unless Rodriguez somehow gets this on the ground, I don\u2019t see her having enough success to win. Lucindo is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJoaquin Buckley -205 vs Stephen Thompson +170<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nBuckley has been on a tear since moving weight divisions, and if he can get his takedown game working in this fight, he should continue his streak, but that\u2019s easier said than done. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He had some nice takedowns en route to a win over Ruziboev in his last fight, but Thompson stands with that karate stance at distance, which makes it really hard to engage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
We know that Thompson will strike at distance and try and win by decision, and Buckley will be rushing in to close the distance and make this a violent fight in close quarters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Thompson\u2019s last three losses are against Shavkat, Belal, and Gilbert Burns, all title contenders or title holders so he\u2019s only lost to the best. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If we\u2019re looking for a fight that could get a bit crazy, I think one could be it. If Buckley can\u2019t get inside, Thompson is going to hit him at long distance with those kicks and jabs, and I could see this going to decision and being very close. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a fight I have circled to bury people\u2019s parlays<\/strong>, I wouldn\u2019t bet Buckley here, and if you\u2019re betting Thompson, you might as well play him to win by decision as he hasn\u2019t finished anyone in eight years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKevin Holland -166 vs Roman Dolidze +140<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNo chance I\u2019m laying -166 on Kevin Holland here. Holland is a tough guy to handicap as he\u2019s looked great at times, and then horrible at times. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s won ITD in 9 out of his last 10 wins, and he clearly wants to get in a situation where he can get a submission, but his wrestling isn\u2019t great, and I don\u2019t see him getting takedowns against Dolidze. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I think he\u2019ll have to keep this on the feet and strike at range, move around and avoid the clinches of Dolidze. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Dolidze\u2019s last three fights have really been boring as there are long stretches of no action so this will be a clash of styles, and whoever controls the pace and where the fight takes place will win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This fight is going to be a pass for me for betting, but I would bet Dolidze at +140 way before I would bet Holland. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This could be a good live betting opportunity<\/strong> as we know early in Kevin Holland fights if he\u2019s dialed in or not, but I won\u2019t be betting anything before the fight<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kayla Harrison -750 vs Ketlen Vieira +525<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI was wondering how Harrison would look in her UFC debut as I didn\u2019t think she looked great to end her PFL career, but she looked better than she\u2019s ever looked as she just mauled Holy Holm, and I expect her to do the same here to Vieira who hasn\u2019t looked amazing, despite here 3-1 record in her last four fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Her last five wins have all been by decision, and in her last fight against Pianzad, she was able to get on top of Kianzad and hold her down, but she did no damage, and even in the third round Kianzad was able to reverse position and get on top. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
That lack of skill on the ground game is a death sentence against Harrison, look for Kayla to get this to the ground and put on another clinic<\/strong> in route to a win. I don\u2019t know if Harrison gets the finish like she did against Holm, but this should be a dominating performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMario Bautista -148 vs Jose Aldo +124<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nAre you ready to fade Jose Aldo? Cause I\u2019m not. Aldo still has it as he showed in his last fight against Jonathan Martinez. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Aldo took some time away from UFC to do some boxing matches, but he realized there was more money in the UFC, and he looked like he hadn\u2019t missed a step. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking was great, and it was an incredible veteran performance where he defended everything Martinez wanted to do, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if he did the same thing here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bautista has shown really good improvement over his last few fights, and his win against Simon was impressive, but he absorbs a lot of damage still, and Aldo\u2019s defense is so good, I don\u2019t think Bautista will be able to tee off on him they way he did on Simon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This is a great price on Aldo to break the winning streak of Bautista, and to get even better value you can take him to win by decision<\/strong> as he doesn\u2019t seem to be looking for the finish as his last 4 wins are by decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nRaquel Pennington -170 vs Juliana Pena +142<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPennington all day for me in this one. Pena \u201cbeat\u201d Nunes in the shadiest fight I\u2019ve seen in the UFC, and then in the rematch got her brakes beaten off for the entire fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Take out that Nunes \u201cwin\u201d, and her last wins are against Sara McMann who is in Bellator now, Nico Montano who isn\u2019t fighting anymore, and Cat Zingano who is getting KO\u2019s over in Bellator these days. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Since the Nunes fights, she\u2019s seemed more interested in trying to play the heel and getting involved in drama rather than getting in the octagon to fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pennington showed her classic never-give-up style of fighting in her last fight against Silva where she was losing early, but poured it on the longer the fight went with takedowns, striking and solid cardio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I just don\u2019t know what we\u2019re getting from Pena at this point, but I do know what I\u2019m getting from Pennington and if she performs like she did against Silva, I think she can dominate Pena based on what Pena looked like against Nunes. Pennington is a pretty easy play<\/strong> for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC 307 Main Event: Alex Pereira -520 vs Khalil Roundtree Jr. +390<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
No real analysis is needed. Pereira is the most terrifying man in the sport right now, and I\u2019m not betting against him anytime soon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rountree\u2019s only hope is that Pereira has a horrible weight cut and is slow enough to not get out of the way of his strikes, but if Pereira shows up in great shape it\u2019s only a matter of time before he lands a KO shot and puts Rountree to sleep. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pereira\u2019s leg kicks are dynamite and it will only take a few to slow down Rountree whose strength of competition is a joke compared to Pereira. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Roundtree\u2019s last two fights are against Anthony Smith and Chris Daukus, meanwhile, Pereira is knocking out current and former Champions. Pereira by KO is the square play, but I don\u2019t see how else to play this one<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31813"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31894,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31813\/revisions\/31894"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27114"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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