{"id":31754,"date":"2024-09-26T08:44:35","date_gmt":"2024-09-26T12:44:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=31754"},"modified":"2024-09-26T08:44:37","modified_gmt":"2024-09-26T12:44:37","slug":"nfl-week-4-afc-betting-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/nfl\/nfl-week-4-afc-betting-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 4 AFC Betting Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Are the Chiefs destined for another Super Bowl run, or will someone emerge from the AFC to challenge Kansas City in January? Betting analyst Ron Marmalefsky shares his thoughts on the outlook in the AFC after the first three weeks, highlighting each team&#8217;s strengths and weaknesses thus far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Football GoldSheet Newsletter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking for a second opinion on a game? GoldSheet is the country&#8217;s longest-running sports betting newsletter, offering stats, analysis, historical trends and power ratings for every NFL and college football game each week. Check out why bettors and oddsmakers have been using GoldSheet since 1954!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-16018d1d wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-luminous-vivid-orange-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/wagertalk.com\/goldsheet\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>CHECK IT OUT<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AFC Betting Notes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As I did a year ago for Wager Talk, I\u2019m back with occasional articles about the NFL and NCAA. These articles are intended to provide a glimpse into the process I use to prepare for not only the week ahead, but also to get ahead of the curve in determining a team\u2019s fortunes as the season unfolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s article is about the NFL, and covers my thoughts about all 16 AFC teams now that three weeks have been played. I continually look at my notes for each team all during the season, and evaluate whether a team is meeting, exceeding or underachieving thus far. While I look at numerous team and player metrics, this article will isolate two of my thoughts per team. Hopefully, this exercise can provide clues to what lies ahead for each team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Team Recaps<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>BALTIMORE<\/strong>: All three outcomes have been close, but the Ravens continue to squander leads under John Harbaugh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Is the run defense back in form? They\u2019ve allowed 53-150, a year after having their worst outcome in two plus decades.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Their 10-3 sack ratio was achieved against teams that I would have expected to hold them back. That\u2019s good news.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>BUFFALO<\/strong>: Buffalo is currently tied with KC with my highest Power Number. Only the run defense has been suspect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Their 11-2 sack ratio looks like it will be at or near the top in sack differential all season long.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>RB Cook has emerged as more than just an efficient runner (4.6 per carry). He is a threat as a receiver as well.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CINCINNATI<\/strong>: The Bengals are a mess in the secondary ever since they parted ways with Jessie Bates. Tee Higgins looked like a WR who needed to work through things in the preseason. The timing with Joe Burrow was not there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>TE\u2019s and RB\u2019s are being targeted more than usual by Joe Burrow. This has limited his yards-per-completion figure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cincy is 0-3, losing all their games by six or fewer points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CLEVELAND<\/strong>: Without RB Chubb, Cleveland does not yet trust its run game. Still, the pass defense remains a strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The OL (or more specifically, QB Watson) has allowed 16 sacks. Teams aren\u2019t afraid of using a power pass rush.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As for Watson, he no longer throws with anticipation. He\u2019s completed 67 passes for 551 yards, a really bad sign.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>DENVER<\/strong>: With no TD passes, Denver\u2019s offense has stalled. Where\u2019s the creativity a Sean Payton offense usually displays?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bo Nix is by far their leading rusher as surprisingly the top RB\u2019s have combined to go 42-92, or just 2.2 yards-per-carry.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Instead of improvement, there has been regression in run and pass D numbers. The year two DC may not last long.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>HOUSTON<\/strong>: It doesn\u2019t look like it, but QB Stroud and the Houston run game have solid numbers so far in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Issues remain with the OL in pass protection. This needs to be addressed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On paper, the 67.6% pass D from 2023 has improved (49-84). In reality, the three QB\u2019s they have faced show an expectation of 60.5% according to my numbers, which is below starting QB market value. Look for the pass defense to regress once they face better QB\u2019s, which likely translates into higher scoring games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>INDY<\/strong>: Indy has scored 58 points in three games. As I explain below, their true number is closer to 81. Keep that in mind when thinking that the offense may have regressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Indy\u2019s time of possession: 64:48. Their opponents time of possession: 115:12. That\u2019s unheard of. If both teams had held the ball the same amount of time, points per minute would yield a three-game total of 81-48. Keep that in mind.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While QB Richardson is not even 50% (36-73), blame continues to go to the passive defensive scheme. Indy is currently allowing 70% through the air, and 4.45-179 yards-per-came on the ground.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>JACKSONVILLE<\/strong>: Jacksonville has a roster problem thanks to bottom tier GM Trent Baalke. This only gets better if QB Lawrence regains his form. Thus far, he has not met my 2024 expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The pieces are there for offensive improvement, as the run game and WR\u2019s are fine. The OL will improve when facing softer pass rushers. Look for point totals to rise when that situation exists.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I projected Jacksonville to reach 40 defensive sacks. They have just five, which is one reason the defense has been soft.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>KANSAS CITY<\/strong>: KC is dangerously close to being 0-3, but don\u2019t let that foll you. The team will improve once the secondary gets more seasoning, and once the OL finds its rhythm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>As expected, the KC run defense remains soft. Teams would be smart to wear down their defense with power runs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>TE Kelce is off to a slow start. It\u2019s a marathon, not a sprint, so look for a spike up after their 10\/13 bye week.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>LAS VEGAS<\/strong>: Vegas has been outplayed in each of their three games. The defense has vastly underachieved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>I\u2019m not YET concerned about their 5.4 per carry run D. They played the Chargers and Ravens. The #\u2019s are misleading.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>More concerning is the NFL\u2019s worst rush attack. That puts too much pressure on their QB\u2019s to throw on passing downs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>LOS ANGELES CHARGERS<\/strong>: LA Charger games are taking far less than three hours thanks to their power football approach. This is the Harbaugh way, but a massive number of injuries might force the team into a style of play that will stunt their growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>As I expected (see season preview), game total UNDERS were the way to go early in the season (3-0 to the under).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The pass defense has been surprisingly subpar. It was \u2018expected\u201d that a Jim Harbaugh coached defense would stiffen vs. the run (275 yards allowed), but they\u2019ve allowed nearly 75% through the air to QB\u2019s expected to hit 61%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MIAMI<\/strong>: The wheels have fallen off this once high-powered offense. With minimal roster depth, this season could go south.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>After recording 56 sacks a year ago, Miami has but 6. That area \u201ccould\u201d improve if they can get healthy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>RB and pass catching threat Achane is averaging just 3.5 per carry. With backups at QB, the run game has to get better.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>NEW ENGLAND<\/strong>: With a depleted roster, NE is doing the right thing by running the ball to try and shorten games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>I projected 50 sacks allowed this year. That seems accurate despite throwing 77 total passes (11 allowed in 3 games).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>No WR on this team is feared. Teams will be able to play single coverage, which could eventually impact the run game.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>NEW YORK JETS<\/strong>: Press the reset button? The ten-day break should enable this team to thrive defensively despite DL injuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Jets have underrated run-pass balance. As long as the OL holds up (5 sacks allowed), this is a good omen.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>WR Lazard would be almost out of football without Aaron Rodgers. Their chemistry remains underrated.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>PITTSBURGH<\/strong>: Any team with T.J. Watt on it is lethal, but an injury to pass rusher Highsmith could be an under the radar issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>I still feel that the offense (under Arthur Smith) is more vanilla than it needs to be. RB and dual threat Patterson should be incorporated even more into the offense, as does WR Austin.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>After years of mediocrity, the run defense may be back to its old, impressive self. They\u2019ve overachieved based on opponents faced, which is a very good sign.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>TENNESSEE<\/strong>: Teams such as Tennessee must relearn how to win. They have too many self-inflicted wounds to be fully trusted. To be honest, nothing on the three-game stat sheet is surprising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>I expected the Titans to be in the 30th \u2013 32nd range in defensive sacks allowed. They\u2019ve allowed 15 sacks thus far.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Under former coach Vrabel, the run defense was top two. I expected regression, especially with the new, press-man cover scheme, which can work once the talent gets upgraded. Tennessee is now much softer vs. the run.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with Las Vegas Cris, Ted Sobel, and Jeff Dawson.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"epyt-video-wrapper\"><div  style=\"display: block; margin: 0px auto;\"  id=\"_ytid_25931\"  width=\"870\" height=\"489\"  data-origwidth=\"870\" data-origheight=\"489\" data-facadesrc=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SezlVndx8iA?enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com&#038;autoplay=0&#038;cc_load_policy=1&#038;cc_lang_pref=&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;loop=0&#038;rel=0&#038;fs=1&#038;playsinline=0&#038;autohide=2&#038;hl=en_US&#038;theme=dark&#038;color=red&#038;controls=1&#038;disablekb=0&#038;\" class=\"__youtube_prefs__ epyt-facade  epyt-is-override  no-lazyload\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-spai-excluded=\"true\" class=\"epyt-facade-poster skip-lazy\" loading=\"lazy\"  alt=\"NFL Week 4 Predictions, Picks, Betting Odds, Player Props &amp; Best Bets | Bet On It\"  src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/SezlVndx8iA\/maxresdefault.jpg\"  \/><button class=\"epyt-facade-play\" aria-label=\"Play\"><svg data-no-lazy=\"1\" height=\"100%\" version=\"1.1\" viewBox=\"0 0 68 48\" width=\"100%\"><path class=\"ytp-large-play-button-bg\" d=\"M66.52,7.74c-0.78-2.93-2.49-5.41-5.42-6.19C55.79,.13,34,0,34,0S12.21,.13,6.9,1.55 C3.97,2.33,2.27,4.81,1.48,7.74C0.06,13.05,0,24,0,24s0.06,10.95,1.48,16.26c0.78,2.93,2.49,5.41,5.42,6.19 C12.21,47.87,34,48,34,48s21.79-0.13,27.1-1.55c2.93-0.78,4.64-3.26,5.42-6.19C67.94,34.95,68,24,68,24S67.94,13.05,66.52,7.74z\" fill=\"#f00\"><\/path><path d=\"M 45,24 27,14 27,34\" fill=\"#fff\"><\/path><\/svg><\/button><\/div><\/div><span itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><meta itemprop=\"embedUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SezlVndx8iA\"><meta itemprop=\"name\" content=\"NFL Week 4 Predictions, Picks, Betting Odds, Player Props &amp; Best Bets | Bet On It\"><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"\ud83c\udfc8 Bet On It: NFL Week 4 Picks &amp; Predictions: Get the edge on NFL Week 4 predictions, betting odds, player props, and best bets with expert analysis from Kelly Stewart, Marco D&#039;Angelo, Joe Raineri, Gianni the Greek, Andy Lang, Teddy Covers, and Ralph Michaels. Whether you&#039;re looking for underdogs, props, or betting strategies, we&#039;ve got all the insights you need for NFL Week 4 picks. #nflpicks | #nflpredictions | #nflweek4 #nflbetting In this episode, we break down Thursday Night Football (Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants), Sunday Night Football (Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens), and both Monday Night Football games (Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins and Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions), plus the entire NFL Week 4 schedule. \u2705 Expert NFL picks, predictions, and best bets \u2705 Player props and betting strategies for top games \u2705 Key matchups to watch and sharp money insights \ud83d\udcfa Don&#039;t miss out on our NFL Week 4 betting advice, with in-depth analysis to help you win your bets. Stay ahead of the game by subscribing for weekly NFL picks and predictions. NFL Week 4 Bet On It Time Stamps 0:00 Introduction to Week 4 NFL Predictions 00:22: Thursday Night Football - Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants 03:12 Sunday Night Football - Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills 05:10 Monday Night Football - Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins 07:48 Monday Night Football - Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions 09:22 VR&#039;s Gold 14:02 Sandwich Game - Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams 16:36 Are You High? - Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints 18:48 Just the Tip - San Francisco 49ers 21:53 Barking Dog - Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs 23:17 Prop Shop - Andy Lang 23:52 Trends &amp; Angles - Ralph Michaels 27:48 Best Bets \ud83d\uddd3\ufe0f NFL Week 4 Schedule Thursday, September 26, 2024 8:15 PM ET Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Sunday, September 29, 2024 1:00 PM ET Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers 1:00 PM ET Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 PM ET New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons 1:00 PM ET Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets 1:00 PM ET Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans 4:05 PM ET New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers 4:05 PM ET Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals 4:25 PM ET Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers 4:25 PM ET Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders 8:20 PM ET Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens Monday, September 30, 2024 Team 7:30 PM ET Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins 8:15 PM ET Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions \ud83d\udd0d Stay tuned for in-depth game coverage, betting trends, matchup history, and expert strategies for NFL Week 4 picks and predictions. \ud83d\udc4d Like, Subscribe, and hit the Notification Bell for weekly updates on NFL picks, predictions, and betting tips. Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below! \ud83d\udcd6 Ralph Michaels&#039; T &amp; A stats of the week \ud83c\udfc8 Prop Shop segment with Andy Lang for top NFL betting props \ud83e\udd6a Marco&#039;s &quot;Sandwich Game of the Week&quot; \u2b06\ufe0f Are You High? Look at NFL Totals \ud83e\udea4 NFL Trap Games \ud83d\udc36 &quot;Barking Dogs&quot; Identifying potential underdog winners. \ud83d\udcca NFL Sell High or Buy Low with Teddy Covers \ud83d\udcb0 Sharp money insights with Gianni the Greek \u261d\ufe0f Closing with Free NFL Expert Best Bets! Join our panel every Wednesday and gain a competitive edge for your NFL bets! \ud83d\udc4d Make sure to SUBSCRIBE to WagerTalk TV; \ud83d\udd14 CLICK the Bell and never miss an episode! \ud83c\udfc8 More Free NFL Picks: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/NFL \ud83e\udd11 Free Sports Picks: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks \ud83d\udcca Live Odds: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds \ud83d\uddde\ufe0f News: https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news \ud83d\udc4d Stay connected with WagerTalk \ud83d\udc4d Facebook: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/fb \ud83d\udc26 Twitter: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/tw \ud83d\udcf8 Instagram: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/ig \ud83d\udcf0 Reddit: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/rd \u2764\ufe0f iHeart Radio: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/iheart \ud83c\udf4e Apple Podcasts: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/ap\"><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/SezlVndx8iA\/0.jpg\"><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT37M45S\"><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2024-09-25T21:17:16Z\"><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WagerTalk Live Odds Screen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds?sport=L2&amp;type=4&amp;cb=0.5277062202711718\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the point spreads, moneylines, totals and betting percentages through every week of the NFL season. Oh yeah, you can also find <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/nfl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">free NFL picks<\/a> and predictions!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"366\" src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/goldsheetfootball-1024x366.jpg\" alt=\"The Football GoldSheet Banner\" class=\"wp-image-21517\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/goldsheetfootball-1024x366.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/goldsheetfootball-300x107.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/goldsheetfootball-768x275.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/goldsheetfootball.jpg 1090w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/wt.buzz\/odds\" data-schema-attribute=\"\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vegas lines<\/a> updated in real time, including who the public is betting on<\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Last Minute Handicapping Advice<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">: Check out our extensive library of <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/sports-betting-guide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">handicapping tips<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sports betting tips video library<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">)<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Want an expert opinion?<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> Check out the latest <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Free Sports Picks<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Best Bets<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> from our team of expert sports handicappers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Are the Chiefs destined for another Super Bowl run, or will someone emerge from the AFC to challenge Kansas City in January? Betting analyst Ron Marmalefsky shares his thoughts on the outlook in the AFC after the first three weeks, highlighting each team&#8217;s strengths and weaknesses thus far. Football GoldSheet Newsletter Looking for a second [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":30351,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[15,277],"class_list":["post-31754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-predictions"],"basic_html":"\n<p>Are the Chiefs destined for another Super Bowl run, or will someone emerge from the AFC to challenge Kansas City in January? Betting analyst Ron Marmalefsky shares his thoughts on the outlook in the AFC after the first three weeks, highlighting each team's strengths and weaknesses thus far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Football GoldSheet Newsletter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Looking for a second opinion on a game? GoldSheet is the country's longest-running sports betting newsletter, offering stats, analysis, historical trends and power ratings for every NFL and college football game each week. Check out why bettors and oddsmakers have been using GoldSheet since 1954!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AFC Betting Notes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>As I did a year ago for Wager Talk, I\u2019m back with occasional articles about the NFL and NCAA. These articles are intended to provide a glimpse into the process I use to prepare for not only the week ahead, but also to get ahead of the curve in determining a team\u2019s fortunes as the season unfolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s article is about the NFL, and covers my thoughts about all 16 AFC teams now that three weeks have been played. I continually look at my notes for each team all during the season, and evaluate whether a team is meeting, exceeding or underachieving thus far. While I look at numerous team and player metrics, this article will isolate two of my thoughts per team. Hopefully, this exercise can provide clues to what lies ahead for each team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Team Recaps<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>BALTIMORE<\/strong>: All three outcomes have been close, but the Ravens continue to squander leads under John Harbaugh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>BUFFALO<\/strong>: Buffalo is currently tied with KC with my highest Power Number. Only the run defense has been suspect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CINCINNATI<\/strong>: The Bengals are a mess in the secondary ever since they parted ways with Jessie Bates. Tee Higgins looked like a WR who needed to work through things in the preseason. The timing with Joe Burrow was not there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CLEVELAND<\/strong>: Without RB Chubb, Cleveland does not yet trust its run game. Still, the pass defense remains a strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>DENVER<\/strong>: With no TD passes, Denver\u2019s offense has stalled. Where\u2019s the creativity a Sean Payton offense usually displays?<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>HOUSTON<\/strong>: It doesn\u2019t look like it, but QB Stroud and the Houston run game have solid numbers so far in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>INDY<\/strong>: Indy has scored 58 points in three games. As I explain below, their true number is closer to 81. Keep that in mind when thinking that the offense may have regressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>JACKSONVILLE<\/strong>: Jacksonville has a roster problem thanks to bottom tier GM Trent Baalke. This only gets better if QB Lawrence regains his form. Thus far, he has not met my 2024 expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>KANSAS CITY<\/strong>: KC is dangerously close to being 0-3, but don\u2019t let that foll you. The team will improve once the secondary gets more seasoning, and once the OL finds its rhythm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>LAS VEGAS<\/strong>: Vegas has been outplayed in each of their three games. The defense has vastly underachieved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>LOS ANGELES CHARGERS<\/strong>: LA Charger games are taking far less than three hours thanks to their power football approach. This is the Harbaugh way, but a massive number of injuries might force the team into a style of play that will stunt their growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MIAMI<\/strong>: The wheels have fallen off this once high-powered offense. With minimal roster depth, this season could go south.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>NEW ENGLAND<\/strong>: With a depleted roster, NE is doing the right thing by running the ball to try and shorten games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>NEW YORK JETS<\/strong>: Press the reset button? The ten-day break should enable this team to thrive defensively despite DL injuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>PITTSBURGH<\/strong>: Any team with T.J. Watt on it is lethal, but an injury to pass rusher Highsmith could be an under the radar issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong>TENNESSEE<\/strong>: Teams such as Tennessee must relearn how to win. They have too many self-inflicted wounds to be fully trusted. To be honest, nothing on the three-game stat sheet is surprising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with Las Vegas Cris, Ted Sobel, and Jeff Dawson.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SezlVndx8iA?origin=https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">WagerTalk Live Odds Screen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>WagerTalk\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/odds?sport=L2&amp;type=4&amp;cb=0.5277062202711718\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">live odds screen<\/a> features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the point spreads, moneylines, totals and betting percentages through every week of the NFL season. Oh yeah, you can also find <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/nfl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">free NFL picks<\/a> and predictions!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img src=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/goldsheetfootball-1024x366.jpg\" alt=\"The Football GoldSheet Banner\" class=\"wp-image-21517\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/46"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31754"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31754\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31756,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31754\/revisions\/31756"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30351"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}