Stewart Nicoll -225 vs Jesus Aguilar +185<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis should be a really fun fight to open the card, and if you like playing underdogs, I think Aguilar is a decent sprinkle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Nicoll looks for the takedown where he\u2019s been able to overwhelm opponents and get ground and pound finishes, but Aguilar is no pushover. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He barely won his last fight against Mendonca where there were many takedowns, and reversals, and I haven\u2019t seen a fight where Nicoll had to deal with someone who was scrappy enough to reverse his position on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Nicoll could get position in the first round, but if he doesn\u2019t get the finish I think Aguilar can frustrate him and win some exchanges on the feet and on the ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
No chance I\u2019m taking Nicoll at -225, Aguilar is the play, and to give you even better odds, I might take a shot on Aguilar by decision<\/strong> as I think there will be a lot of wrestling and ground time with no finishes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nKenan Song -198 vs Ricky Glenn +164<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nThis is \u201cFade The Side Hustle Theory\u201d as Ricky Glenn is a plumber, and the UFC is his side hustle. He has one win since 2028, and he\u2019s been knocked out in the first round in his last two fights, and I have to believe his UFC career is coming to an end. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s not fast on the feet, and it appears like he doesn\u2019t have the KO power anymore, and I think he gets handed another loss here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Song has lost three in a row, but he\u2019s lost to Max Griffin, Ian Garry and Kevin Jousset, all solid opponents, and he has a win against Bedoya mixed in. Like Glenn, he doesn\u2019t seem to have the KO power anymore, but he went the distance against Jousset, and I like his movement on the feet a lot better. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Unless Glenn finds the fountain of youth, and gets the KO I think Song outworks him<\/strong> on the feet en route to a decision win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTom Nolan -1100 vs Alex Reyes +700<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNot a lot of analysis needed for this one. Nolan is from Australia, and this is a layup fight for him. Reyes hadn\u2019t fought since 2018 until he took a fight a while back, and he got KO\u2019d in round 1. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Nolan has a lot of work to do before he\u2019s a Top 10 guys, but he\u2019s going to KO Reyes<\/strong> who\u2019s way past his prime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJack Jenkins -625 vs Herbert Burns +455<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nHerbert Burns is a sacrificial lamb in this matchup. This event is in Australia, and Jenkins is from there and Burns will certainly be grateful to just get another fight and paycheck as he's stepping in fairly short notice, and he's most likely done in the UFC after this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Injuries, lack of cardio, lack of focus, and him completely quitting in fights have him on a 3 fight-losing streak where he's competitive for about 1 minute, and then he just gives up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jenkins has brutal leg kicks and as soon as he lands a few of those, Burns will want out of this fight, and Burns doesn't have the offense to scare Jenkins early in the fight. I wouldn't be surprised if this line ends up at -1000<\/strong> so we need to put this in ASAP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Luana Santos -180 vs Casey O\u2019Neil +150<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI\u2019ve been correct on fading Casey O\u2019Neil in the last two fights as she hasn\u2019t looked good since her knee injury, and she\u2019s only beaten bad competition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Her striking hasn\u2019t been great, and neither has her ground game or striking defense, and I\u2019m not really sure where she\u2019s better than Santos. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Two fights ago, O\u2019Neil lost to Jennifer Maia, and Maia isn\u2019t in the UFC anymore. Santos has finished Agapova and Miller, and while neither are good, she also beat Egger by decision, and I\u2019d rather bet on the fighter with upside. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This -180 may look like a bargain if O\u2019Neil hasn\u2019t improved any so I\u2019ll gladly take Santos to win this one.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJosh Culibao -166 vs Ricardo Ramos +145<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTwo guys who I don\u2019t trust in this fight so I won\u2019t bet anything on it, but I think this fight comes down to whether or not Culibao can take advantage of the massive, dumb mistakes that Ramos will make. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Because Ramos does it every fight. He\u2019ll give his opponent 2-3 big opportunities to win the fight, and in his last two fights, Jourdain and Erosa have taken advantage and submitted him in round one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m not a Culibao fan as I think he\u2019s overrated, and if he can\u2019t take advantage of the Ramos mistakes, I think Ramos wins the striking battle on the feet. I can\u2019t bet my own money on either of these guys so it\u2019s a pass on everything on this fight<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nJunior Tafa -118 vs Valter Walker -102<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI think both of these guys suck. Tafa has absolutely no ground game, and he took his last fight on 24 hours\u2019 notice, and lost by leg kick KO. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Walker got fraud-checked in his UFC debut, losing to Lukasz Brzeski (which is an awful look), but he has the easiest path to victory and that\u2019s to take Tafa down and lay on him all fight. Tafa is KO or bust, and I don\u2019t think Walker is dumb enough to try and go strike for strike with him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I\u2019ll lean Walker, but again\u2026this isn\u2019t a fight I\u2019ll be betting with my own money<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nCarlos Prates -285 vs Li Jingliang<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPrates was our favorite fighter who came out of Contender Series last season as he had all the physical tools and experience to look like a legit prospect, and he easily got a contract to fight in the UFC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
In his first fight against Giles, he looked tentative and nervous to start the fight, and he certainly was losing the fight until he got it together and showed his ceiling with a big KO in the second round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His next fight he looked so much more comfortable against Radtke, and he dominated early and got the KO late in the first round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
His striking is nasty, and powerful, and he has a really long reach with his arms and legs that are hard to deal with. He's fighing Jingliang who hasn't fought in almost 2 years, and he's pretty limited in his skills. His last fight he lost to Daniel Rodriguez (not a great look), and his last 2 wins are against guys who are past their prime. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Li doesn't have the explosiveness that Prates has, and the way to beat Prates is to wrestle and control him, but that's not was Li does. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Li likes to stand and strike, and that's a big advantage for Prates. Last thing is that Prates fights with the Fighting Nerds gym, and they have to be considered one of the top gyms with how to game plan for fights. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
They are 12-0 in the UFC since they debuted on Contender Series, and every time a Fighting Nerd fights, you can just see they have the better game plan as it's well thought out, and the fighters stick to it\u2026something rarely seen in the UFC. Prates has a high ceiling, Li is on the downswing of his career, Prates is the play<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Jairzinho Rozenstruik -230 vs Tai Tuivasa +190<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTuivasa has been pretty open that he\u2019s motivated by money to fight in the UFC, and it\u2019s shown in his last four fights as he\u2019s lost all of them, two by submission and two by KO. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s a striker, but he\u2019s not disciplined or polished and his wins in the UFC are against guys who aren\u2019t good or who were past their prime, and I like Rozenstruik to get the win here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rozenstruik put on a jabbing clinic against Gaziev in his last fight, and if he uses that jab early to keep Tuivasa at range, I think he can get Tuivasa gassed fairly early in the fight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tuivasa will want to get a big KO in the first round in front of his home crowd, but I think him being overzealous will lead to his demise as Rozenstruik has good cardio, and good wrestling to control Tuivasa. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If you\u2019re betting Tuivasa, bet him by KO as he\u2019s not going to win any other way, but my money will be on Rozenstruik to get the win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mateusz Gamrot -325 vs Dan Hooker +260<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nIt feels like the world is on Gamrot in this fight, and while I get it, this price is way too steep. Gamrot does a great job with the wrestling and grappling, but I can poke some holes in his resume. He loses his UFC debut to Kutaladze, then beats three guys not in the UFC anymore. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
After that he has a great win against Tsarukyan, but then loses to Dariush, barely beats Jalin Turner, and wins against Fiziev cause of a leg injury before beating old man RDA. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The point is, he\u2019s not dominating, and he gets clipped at times, and I\u2019m just not ready to fade Dan Hooker who had a huge come from behind victory against Jalin Turner in his last fight, and a great KO win against Claudio Puelles before that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Not all the favorites are going to win on this card, and Hooker\u2019s striking and Gamrot\u2019s lack of striking defense makes for a nice recipe for an upset. Hooker by KO is a nice longshot play<\/strong> in this fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nSteve Erceg -205 vs Kai Kara France +170 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nI thought Erceg fighting Pantoja was too big of a step up of competition, and although he lost he put on a great performance, and I think this might be the UFC saying Thank You for fighting Pantoja for us. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
KKF has lost his last two fights, and I just haven\u2019t really been a big fan of his fighting style, even though it\u2019s worked for him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Erceg is going to be bigger and longer on the feet, and his length is going to give KKF big problems, and I\u2019m pretty sure Erceg has the advantage with the wrestling and grappling. All signs point to Erceg<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nUFC 305 Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis +105 vs Israel Adesanya -125<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I was of the opinion that his KO of Alex Pereira was the peak of his career, and that it would be a quick downhill slide for him after a long run of amazing fights, and he clearly didn\u2019t look like his prime self against Strickland, and I don\u2019t think he has much gas left in the tank. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
He\u2019s beaten all the big names over the years, headlined countless PPV\u2019s, and at some point there\u2019s just not much energy left, and it\u2019s understandable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
If he was in his prime I would pick him as his striking, patience and gas tank would all be better than DDP\u2019s, but I don\u2019t think that\u2019s the Izzy we get here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
DDP is an awkward fighter with weird striking at times, and his gas tank has been an issue in the past, but since his nasal surgery it appears to have gotten better. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t have much of a breakdown on fighting styles, I just think the wear and tear of all those wars, and the energy he needed to make it through all those fights has caught up, and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if we don\u2019t see him fight to many more fights. DDP is the play for me<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nLooking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nMake sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30689","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30689"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30689\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30968,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30689\/revisions\/30968"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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